In the comedy " Crazy Stone ", the protagonist Bao Shihong once yelled at the endless gentlemen on the Liang Dynasty:
"Public toilets, come when you want to come, leave when you want to?"
And this anger seems to be very suitable for Ukraine now, because recently, Russian President Putin repeatedly said, "Let's stop fighting."
Zelensky was puzzled. Shouldn’t this sentence be said by me? You first took away my Crimea and Sevastopol without bloodshed, and then after fighting for half a year, the four eastern states encouraged "referendums to Russia" and took such a big advantage for me. Then you turned around and asked me to stop fighting and stop the war. Why don't you go to heaven?
In Zelensky's view, it is understandable that Putin is unwilling to surrender in the name of a defeated general. After all, if he wants to surrender, the war will not start. But when he is determined not to surrender, Russia is definitely not the winner who will laugh to the end, so Putin should not think about taking advantage and stopping when he sees it.
This is the biggest trouble facing Russia at present, because once the war breaks out, it will soon evolve to an uncontrollable level, which also means that Russia has completely lost the qualification to withdraw troops before its real victory or failure.
So, how can Russia withdraw from the quagmire of Ukraine? Türkiye President Erdogan has long given a suggestion, that is, to spit out all the land occupied by Ukraine.
Putin smiled, and then ten thousand alpacas rush back and forth in his heart. If all the land in Ukraine is spit out, then what is the purpose of Russia and Ukraine fighting? Is it because Russia has too much population and needs a war to "digest"?
In the view of Jingyeshi, the fundamental reason why Russia cannot tolerate Ukraine is that after NATO has almost eroded Russia's strategic maneuver space in Eastern Europe after five rounds of violent eastward expansion. Except for Belarus and Ukraine, Russia has no place to stand in Eastern Europe.
. After the end of the Cold War, Ukraine, under the influence of the oligarchy, had already strengthened its determination to "go westward". In fact, Russia, which is also full of oligarchs, also has a beautiful wish to "get grudges and laugh at each other with Western countries such as the United States and get rid of grudges and call brothers and family members." But Russia is too large and not enough to be a younger brother, so Ukraine was fortunate to be selected by Western countries and serve as the vanguard of back-sting Russia.
Russia is very angry, and the consequences are very serious. To a certain extent, it is precisely because of Ukraine's will torture that Russia has forced its killer for the sake of national security.
Because Russia's comprehensive national strength has been difficult to describe since the Cold War, it is simply a fantasy to ensure that Ukraine is not implicated by NATO, so Russia can only settle for the second best, that is, to protect the eastern Ukrainian region where the Russian tribe is dominant.
This is also difficult for Russia to reach the top. After all, since ancient times, Russia has never believed in the so-called buffer. The way to ensure national security is to take all the so-called buffers into its pocket. The most typical example is on the eve of the outbreak of the Soviet-German War Stalin builds the so-called " Eastern Front ". Although this approach can expand territory and cater to Russia's national characteristics since ancient times. But on the one hand, it greatly increased the burden on Russia, on the other hand, it completely offended the occupied areas, and on the other hand, it made Russia betrayal in the international community.
Eastern Ukraine seems to have encountered the same dilemma. Although Russia repeatedly emphasized that after the "public referendum" of the four eastern Ukraine states, Russia has the right to use nuclear weapon to defend territorial integrity, it has put a heavy burden on Russia.
Moreover, this seemingly copying the Crimean model has completely angered Ukraine, and behind Ukraine, NATO countries have the money to contribute and strongly. Although no one takes the life and death of Ukraine as a cannon fodder seriously, the idea of using Ukraine to drag down Russia is a different end.
Russia, because of its "referendum to Russia", even Russia's allies avoided Russia. After all, countries like Kazakhstan have also experienced blood exchange by Russian race. Although we "embrace back to back" with Russia and have the common enemy of Western countries, our disagreement with Russia's approach is also clear-cut.
So because of the four states in eastern Wu, Russia is already in a difficult situation.
In the view of Jingyeshi, the fundamental reason why Russia is in a dilemma is that it makes two fatal mistakes:
1 is to regard Wudong as a private place. Judging from the situation where the four eastern Ukrainian states were eating pots of slurry to welcome the Russian army, Russia does have a real environment that will live up to the local people. But the problem is that this situation is the result of racial blood exchanges in Tsarist Russia for hundreds of years since , which does not mean that Russia has the legal basis for occupying the four eastern Ukrainian states.
After all, since the collapse of the Soviet Union in in 1991, the territory of Russia and Ukraine has been determined and widely recognized by the international community. No matter how the Ukraine is torn apart, it is also their internal affairs. Russia lacks the basis for interference, and cannot take Ukrainian territory on the grounds of protecting its own security.
So from the moment of the confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, Russia has always been unreasonable, and naturally it will not receive wider support from Western countries.
It should be said that Russia's situation was very passive before the war began. But from the perspective of Russia, it seems reasonable to do everything for the sake of homeland security. But Russia then made the second mistake, which was to underestimate Ukraine's will to resist and overestimate its own decisive and decisive level.
Russia may not have thought that except for the NATO countries behind Ukraine, even Ukraine, which has committed suicide, never gives up easily.
Compared with the three military reforms in Russia, the embarrassing that it has become more and more looser. Although Ukraine is also sloppy, it retains the idea of the Soviet era, and secondly, it has carried out full mobilization of at the beginning of the war. In contrast, Russia, when it comes to the beginning, it is timid and timid, and with the Russian army's indescribable combat effectiveness, Russia's blitzkrieg , which should have been decisive, turned into a drag-and-pull battle.
For Russia, this already means failure. Because Russia is not Ukraine, as a major country, it needs to defend many places. Once it is constrained by Ukraine, other regions will inevitably become more passive.
Now, this situation seems to have formed. Many people say that Russia can win the war by winter, but the problem is that it can only freeze to death in winter EU , and the United States is the master of "dead fellow Taoists are not poor", so winter cannot give Russia victory.
As for nuclear weapons, it is even more nonsense. Although Ukraine has taken the initiative to abandon its nuclear power, NATO has nuclear power. Unless Russia is determined to die with NATO, nuclear weapons will not be able to help Russia "turn defeat into victory" as weapons for dimensional reduction strikes.
In Jingyeshi's view, for the sake of confronting Western countries, we adhere to the basic position of fighting side by side with Russia, but this does not mean that we are optimistic about Russia or unconditionally support Russia's actions.
Judging from the current situation, it is impossible for Russia to negotiate when it takes all the advantages, and if it continues, it will inevitably lead to an embarrassing point of ending. And we, as a responsible major country, are unswervingly promoting peace between Russia and Ukraine, which is in the interests of all parties.
just, back to the initial question, is Russia willing to abandon its vested interests and return to the place where it started?
has many omissions, please correct me.
I am Jingyeshi, and I look forward to your attention.
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