On January 23, 2017, the US President , who just entered the White House , signed an executive order: The United States withdrew from the TPP Agreement .
TPP full name "TPP Trans-Pacific Strategic Economic Partnership Agreement ", is a "Economic NATO" designed by the Obama administration for China. Its purpose is to cross World Trade Organization , establish a new economic organization that excludes China, and strive to reconstruct the world trade system and attack China's economy, especially China's manufacturing industry.
In fact, while discussing the TPP agreement with Japan, Vietnam, Mexico and other countries, the United States also held discussions with European countries on the establishment of TTIP ( Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership Agreement ). If both agreements are successfully signed, the United States will build a trade organization dominated by the United States, including most of the world's major economies, in addition to the World Trade Organization. These organizations will also attract more members to join in the future, of course, not China.
Just as the economic network woven by the Obama administration for China was about to take shape, Trump, a vulgar real estate developer, emerged. He defeated political veteran Hillary in an incredible way, reached the top of power in the United States, and announced that the United States would withdraw from the TPP agreement that the Obama administration had operated for many years.
When many people naively use "businessmen value profit, so respect the most cost-effective globalization" to explain Trump's "retreatment" behavior, Trump uses another way to show these people what is the real "businessmen value profit".
Compared with the obscene behavior of the Obama administration, Trump is simpler and more direct in doing things. He forced American companies to return by tax reduction and exemption of and punishment, such as carrot and stick, and required countries around the world to share the economic burden for the United States and accept trade agreements that are beneficial to the United States. If they do not follow, they will wield sanctions sticks at will.
It was not until that moment that many people suddenly realized that they mistakenly understood the true meaning of "businessmen value profit". What Trump valued was not the economic interests of the world, but the interests of the United States.
Trump is essentially the same as Obama . When globalization is beneficial to the United States, we must support it, and when globalization is unfavorable to the United States, we must oppose it. What Obama and Trump have to do is actually the same thing: interrupts existing globalization and then reconnects the world in a way that is beneficial to the United States.
Business and War
12-16, a group of North American colonial residents poured a whole ship of British East India into the sea in Boston . This incident directly triggered the American War of Independence .
The explanation given by the mainstream American media is that this move is to resist the " Tea Tax Law " issued by the British government against North American colonies.
But the other side of the fact is that at that time, a judicial discussion on the abolition of slavery was being staged on the British mainland, and the abolitionists had clearly gained the upper hand. Slavery was almost certain to be abolished in the British mainland and colonies, and a number of leaders of the War of Independence, including George Washington, and Thomas Jefferson, were all plantation slave owners.
Whether it is because of tea tax or slavery, the motivation for American independence can be summarized as the "old boss" of Britain delays their making money.
The Civil War, which had a profound impact on American history, is also closely related to interests.
Southern plantations can produce large quantities of raw materials needed by the industry, while northern factories can provide industrial products, which seems to be a good complement.
But the fact is that planters in the south are more willing to sell cotton to the UK in a larger demand. As for industrial products, they also prefer to buy better quality British goods.
For its own interests, the South requires free trade around the world, and the North also requires limiting the scope of free trade to the United States for its own interests. The contradiction between the two sides eventually becomes irreconcilable. The issue of the abolition of slavery is nothing more than the Mars that ignited the powder barrel.
North and South sides decided the winner with guns, and the winner set the rules of the game. Lincoln is located in Republican uses trade protectionism to create a barrier for the industrial sector in the north. The defeated South has also begun to increase investment in industry. The abundant natural resources, sufficient labor and market brought by immigration have allowed American industries to thrive under the protection of trade barrier . By the end of the 19th century, the United States, which had initially completed industrialization, has become a behemoth.
Axiom Power
In February 1898, the US Navy's USS Maine warship was sunk in Havana port . At that time, Deputy Secretary of the U.S. Navy, Theodore Roosevelt , believed that this was a godsend opportunity to expel Spanish forces from Cuban and Philippine , so he ordered a war with the Spanish Navy without the request of President McKinley.
Theodore Roosevelt is called "Old Roosevelt". Franklin Roosevelt, who later introduced the Roosevelt New Deal, was his distant nephew,
. The development of the matter confirmed the idea of Theodore Roosevelt. At this time, the Spanish Navy was no longer a big deal. It was vulnerable to the United States, which already had considerable industrial production capacity.
The United States' sudden "heavy punch" against Spain is indeed a bit surprising, because for more than a century since the establishment of the United States, the United States has been adhering to the principle of isolationism that does not interfere in European affairs, but this time it is very precise in fighting against Spain, the aging empire.
Behind this conflict was that in 1894, the United States' industrial output value exceeded , the British Empire , becoming the world's number one industrial country. The domestic market of the United States is already unable to carry the huge production capacity of the United States. The United States needs overseas markets. At this time, the world is still in an era of the prevalence of the world colonial system. The best way to obtain a new market is to obtain more overseas colonies.
But what is embarrassing is that the world colonial system has basically been formed at this time. The two old British and French capitalist capitalist powers have mastered most of the world's colonies. It is indeed a bit unwise for the United States to seize food directly from these two overlords, so they are not strong enough and the colony is still not far from the United States. Spain has become the unlucky guy.
However, the few colonies snatched from those declining old empires cannot digest the huge production capacity of the United States at all, and the United States needs a new market.
In April 1917, US President Wilson declared war on Germany on the grounds that German submarine frequently attacked American merchant ships. The terrifying industrial production capacity of the United States helped Allied power to quickly gain an overwhelming advantage. A year later, Germany surrendered and the First World War ended.
The United States' participation in the war surprised many countries in the world, because the United States at that time had been adhering to the "neutral principle" and made a fortune by selling war materials to the Allies and allies. Why did the United States give up the business that could make them rich without doing anything, but participate in the war?
These questions were quickly answered at the Paris Peace Conference where the victorious countries divided the defeated countries. While Britain and France were still quarreling about how to divide Germany's colonies and war reparations, US President Wilson said: , the United States doesn't want a penny.
Not only does it cost money, Wilson also delivered an enthusiastic speech at the conference: The future world should be axiom war power, and all ethnic groups should have the right to choose their own destiny.
UK and France did not understand until this moment how big the United States was. The principles of "national self-determination" and "free trade" advocated by Wilson were aiming at the world's colonial system. At that time, the United States, which was already the world's largest economic power, did not even look at that little war reparation and Germany's colony, which was not much. What the United States wanted was to disintegrate the entire world colonial system.
The world dominated by Britain and France is in a semi-free trade state. Why do we need to add the word "half" before free trade? It is because both Britain and France at that time made their country's goods have a transcendent status in their colonies by adjusting tariffs at will. These trade protection policies made Britain and France not very interested in achieving industrial upgrading, because even if their goods are not good, they can be unimpeded in the colonies they control, while cheap and easy-to-use American goods are subject to various restrictions when entering the British and French colonies.
The United States aims at the world colonial system, and its purpose is to the overseas market of American goods. If the world colonial system is broken, the protective tariffs on the sovereign countries in various colonies will be cancelled, and the high-quality and low-priced American goods will sweep away British and French goods that are scattered under protective tariffs. The United States, which started with trade protectionism, is talking about free trade at this time.
strangled
In the 1980s, the US semiconductor industry ushered in a strong enemy, Japan, which had been dormant on East Asian islands for many years.
Japan's post-war economic recovery originally came from Korean War . Japan produced war materials for the United States. The huge demand of the US military made Japan really make a fortune. Japan started with these wealthy assets and caught up in the home appliances and automobile manufacturing industries. Finally, in the 1980s, it caught up with the United States in the field of semiconductor with a high technical content.
Japan first started in the semiconductor field through the national system, and then made Japan catch up with or even surpass the United States in the semiconductor field through technology sharing. When American semiconductor companies were in the most embarrassing, Indel was almost acquired by Japanese companies.
As Japanese goods increase, anti-Japanese sentiment in the United States began to rise, and public destruction of Japanese home appliances occurred from time to time. The US government also realized that Japan's threat to its own industrial chain, so it started from the most important semiconductor field. First, it subsidized American semiconductor companies, but the effect was limited. Even with the support of subsidies, American semiconductor companies were still at a disadvantage in the competition with Japanese companies. Later, the United States simply played trade protectionism and increased tariffs on Japanese semiconductors.
Economic sanctions are carried out simultaneously with judicial crackdowns. The US Department of Justice restricts the export of related parts and technologies to related companies on the grounds that Japanese semiconductor companies threaten US national security. The Japanese semiconductor industry is beginning to face difficulties.
In addition to trade and judicial means, the United States also launched a financial war against Japan. The United States used human intervention to greatly appreciate the yen and attacked Japanese export companies. Then, when the Japanese real estate bubble began to burst, the selling of Japanese stocks and bonds accelerated, causing the Japanese stock market and real estate market to completely fall.
Japanese companies hit by the financial crisis can no longer compete with the United States on the semiconductor track with strong resources, but the United States is still worried. In order to prevent Japanese semiconductor companies from rising again, the United States supports South Korean semiconductor companies.
The Japanese economy, which was defeated by the financial crisis, never stood up again, so the subsequent industrial upgrading basically has nothing to do with it. Japan, which once led the world in the semiconductor field, missed the entire mobile Internet revolution.
The United States' stranglehold of Japan's semiconductor industry is an important part of its encirclement and suppression of the Japanese economy. In this process, the United States can be said to be doing everything possible. Its style has nothing to do with the free trade it has been pursuing. This also indirectly confirms a fact: The United States will only maintain free trade that is beneficial to itself.
Most of the US's concerns about Japan come from the semiconductor industry, so it breaks the logic of free trade and attacks Japan with heavy blows. But when the US finds that it is not the one that makes the most money in the entire world's free trade system, what it wants to destroy is the entire world's free trade system.
industries that cannot be returned
In 2010, China's total industrial output value exceeded that of the United States. This is the first time that a country's industrial output value has surpassed that of the United States since the United States surpassed that of the United States in 1894 and ranked first in the world's industrial throne.
In the same year, US President Obama arranged for Apple Group CEO O Cook to visit China. After seeing Chinese workers assembled Apple phones day and night in Foxconn , Cook told Obama: Mr. , those jobs cannot be returned.
So, Obama used another means to curb China's manufacturing industry: based on a set of rules that China could not accept as the entry-level conditions, establish an economic organization specifically targeted China. Members in this organization replace China's industries based on their own advantages. From that moment on, the TPP agreement began to become more and more targeted at China. Some people joked that the principle of TPP is ABC (anyone but China), and anyone can join, except China.
Obama's logic is: Since it is difficult for those industries that have been transferred to China to return to the United States, we must find ways to let them leave China. Some industries in the United States do not necessarily have, but we must ensure that China does not have them either.
However, the globalized trade system was established with all parties taking into account the cost factors. It is a bit naive to try to break the entire global trade system with one organization and one agreement. When the Obama administration promoted the signing of the TPP agreement, China was also discussing with Japan, Australia, New Zealand and other countries to establish a regional comprehensive economic partnership (RCEP).
RCEP overlaps with many members of the TPP, which leads to the indirect circulation of Chinese goods in the TPP organization. In this way, it is difficult for the United States to use the TPP agreement to crack down on Chinese manufacturing. Not only that, countries in the two organizations can be completely "intermediaries" and make the difference with Chinese goods, and finally let American consumers bear the rise in commodity prices.
In 2017, Trump came to the forefront. He was different from the Democratic professional politician who was doing things in vain under the banner of benevolence, righteousness and morality. He did things simply and directly.
threats, intimidates, and forced buys and sells, with extremely clear purpose. No matter what means are used, even if it is to cheat or sneak attack, it will bring manufacturing back to the United States.
Compared to Obama's sneakyness, Trump directly stated that the World Trade Organization is outdated, and the United States should consider new global trade methods if needed.
What Obama and Trump did are essentially the same: to disconnect the trade mode that is unfavorable to the United States and rebuild a trade mode that is beneficial to the United States. The difference is that Obama is relatively implicit, and Trump is directly involved, and if the entire world trade system is not good to the United States, destroy it.
Hungry and eat
There is a set of shots in "Towards the Republic":
Li Hongzhang When signing the " Treaty of Shimonoseki ", he bargained with Ito Hirobuki : Can T Bay delay the delivery?
Ito Hirobumi said: No.
Li Hongzhang said: T Bay is already the meat in your bowl, so why bother rushing to this moment?
Ito Hirobumi replied: I’m so hungry.
Starting from 2021, domestic inflation in the United States has been high, and the impact of the mask incident on the US economy has not completely dissipated. At this time, if raises interest rates and lowers the inflation rate, the economy may fall into recession. If interest rates are cut to ensure the economy, inflation will rise. After weighing the pros and cons, the United States decided: hike interest rates and reduce inflation, but at the same time, it is necessary to allow external funds to enter the market to take over the US economy. How to let external funds enter the market? , no doubt, creates trouble.
Starting from early 2022, under the leadership of the United States, the situation in Ukraine has been heating up. The situation in Ukraine, which was originally fighting at low intensity, suddenly escalated. This is not the end. While increasing the crackdown on Ukraine's eastern region, the Ukrainian government also announced its participation in NATO in a high-profile manner. After a series of operations of
, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out. The United States immediately announced that it would lead the European brother to impose sanctions on Russia. Europe is highly dependent on Russia in the fields of food and energy. If Europe really cuts a comprehensive cut with Russia, it will face the dilemma of food, oil and gas shortage. But it doesn’t matter. The United States is also a major grain and energy power. The United States can sell it to them because the price is more expensive.
If some companies cannot withstand the increase in product costs caused by rising energy sources, it seems good to come to the United States directly with money and technology. After all, cheap energy can be obtained here.
At the critical moment when the war between Russia and Ukraine was in a stalemate and Europe was preparing to reach a moderate compromise with Russia in terms of energy, the pipeline that transported natural gas to Europe exploded, and the contact between Russia and Europe was forcibly blocked.
, which has been raising interest rates continuously but inflation has not met expectations, and is in a hurry to go hungry.
Sunset on the sea
In the mid-19th century, the British Empire reached its peak in its national strength. They proudly stated that the empire's colonies were all over the world, and the whole world was the empire's pastures. When the sun sets from the British land, it rises on a certain British colony. In the territory of the British Empire, the sun will never set.
However, what the British did not expect was that the colonies that allowed them to reach the top of the world would one day become a shackle that hindered their progress. Because Britain could freely increase the high tariffs on other countries' commodities in overseas colonies, British commodities could be unimpeded in the colonies even without cost advantages. Therefore, British entrepreneurs thought about not how to improve technology and efficiency every day, but how to bribe the colony governor so that their commodities could enjoy a transcendent status. Over time, the majors that British college students most were most willing to choose also changed from science and technology to art and culture, because the latter was more useful in communication.
That's it, the British Empire was indifferent to seeing the second industrial revolution of happening around it.
The Deputy Secretary of the Navy of the Spanish Navy, who ordered the US Navy to attack the decline in 1898, Theodore Roosevelt later became the president of the United States. Looking at the great powers that once had quite brilliant but later fell into the glory of the past, President Theodore Roosevelt said to those around him: If all the glory of is at the cost of losing the ambition, it seems not worth mentioning.
References:
[1] Yu Zhan. Is the American Revolution a counter-revolution?——Commentary on "Counter-revolution in 1776: Slave Resistance and the Origin of America" [J]. Historical Monthly, 2017(07): 130-136.
[2] Gao Jundong. The "moral surface" and "interest core" of the development of American constitutionalism [J]. Yangtze River Forum, 2010(01): 78-82.
