Russia In the past few days, started talking about nuclear weapons used .
Through various public and non-public channels, Russia revealed a signal to the outside world: Russia does not rule out the possibility of using nuclear weapons against Ukraine . As soon as the news of
came out, the entire Western world was shocked.
Russia suddenly made this statement. The author believes that has two purposes :
The first purpose, that is, the main and most likely purpose, is to use nuclear weapons to pressure Western countries .
We know that Russia is facing many problems on the Ukrainian battlefield now, and many of them are and Western support and assistance to Ukraine related to .
If Russia wants to speed up the progress of the Ukrainian war, it must solve the problem of Western aid.
In this case, if the deterrent power of nuclear weapons can be used, will make Western countries worry about , thereby reducing assistance to Ukraine.
This is obviously beneficial for the Russian side.
The possibility of the second purpose is not high, but it cannot be ruled out. is to use nuclear weapons in the future, first give international public opinion a shot of preventive .
Because of Russia's conventional military strength, can it cope with the Ukrainian war with the continuous support of the West? is still full of uncertainty , even if the West reduces its support.
And the special reason for Russia's birth has led to the unreasonable proportion of the conventional forces and nuclear forces of the Russian army.
The huge nuclear force is an important part of the Russian army. If nuclear forces are stripped away, the strength of the Russian army may not be enough to cope with the current situation.
does not rule out that Russia's statement is to give Russia a vaccination for the use of nuclear weapons, and leaves a backhand .
You should know that the Russian army inherited the old foundation of the Soviet army, and in the plan to attack Europe planned by the Soviet army at that time, tactical nuclear weapons were the "pioneer" .
For example, in the famous "81 Military Exercise", the Soviet army simulated attacks the entire Europe. During the exercise that lasted for a week, used hundreds of tactical nuclear weapons simulated attacks .
During the peak of Cold War , the Soviet army's tactical nuclear weapons authority was once delegated to the division level .
The Soviet Union created a large number of tactical nuclear weapons . The outside world generally believes that Russia currently retains tactical nuclear weapons, should have more than 2,000 pieces of .
So in terms of strength and technology, the Russian army is fully capable of launching a large-scale nuclear strike against Ukraine, thereby changing the situation on the battlefield.
But in terms of public opinion and diplomacy, if Russia does this, will fall into an absolute disadvantage and passive situation .
After all, nuclear weapons are a powerful weapon, and once used, they will cause a very strong damage effect.
If Russia uses nuclear weapons when the United States controls the dominance of public opinion, will be absolutely "political incorrect" .
The United States has more full reasons to stand on the commanding heights of morality and launch public opinion attacks on Russia, and various sanctions are more natural.
So nuclear weapons can solve the problems faced by Russia on the battlefield, but cannot solve other problems .
At this time, there is a question: If Russia launches a nuclear strike against Ukraine, will the United States launch a nuclear strike against Russia? Will a nuclear war break out?
The author’s opinion is: I don’t know .
Ukraine is a big deal, is worth the risk of being thrown by Russians to carry out nuclear retaliation for them?
If Russia really launches a nuclear strike against Ukraine, then in my opinion, the Americans' approach should be more like this:
publicly publicizes the "roughness" of the Russian nuclear strike, and then moderately expresses 's "sympathy" for Ukrainian .
This is the first to set the tone of the entire public opinion .
Then, after creating such a public opinion environment, Americans can naturally "request" Europeans to further sanction Russia , and to "draw a clear line between Russia."
Why is it that "requires" Europeans, not the United States who play in person?
Because sanctions are a "double-edged sword" , while attacking the Russian economy through sanctions, the party that imposes sanctions will be more or less damaged.
And Americans are very smart. If is harmful, let Europeans do .
Like in the past few months, Americans advocated that Europeans impose "sanctions" on Russian natural gas exports to "support Ukraine."
Europeans listen to the United States and impose sanctions. Then Europe has insufficient natural gas, so they go to to find the United States to buy natural gas at a high price.
Ko Where does the natural gas in the United States come from? It was not produced by them themselves, but Americans went to Russia to buy natural gas at the original price, and then resold to Europeans at a high price.
This business is really amazing.
From this we can see that Americans can make great efforts on the Ukraine issue and can crack down on Russia in public opinion.
But if the Americans come to the scene and fight with Russia in person, for the shrewd Americans, obviously will not take the initiative to do , let alone a nuclear war.
Russian As long as the nuclear bomb is not thrown on the United States , no matter which piece of land in Europe is blown up, it has nothing to do with the Americans.
The United States will take a look in public opinion, The United States and Europe stand firmly together , and act as if they are ready to fight back against Russia.
This is used to to give Europeans a reassurance , so that Europeans can continue to fight against Russia and fully consume Russia's national strength.
Anyway, it only consumes the national strength of the Europeans. Even if Russia really uses nuclear weapons, it is only the Europeans who are bombed. and what does this have to do with the Americans?
Smart American politicians will not take care of themselves for their allies.
Generally speaking, we can understand Russia's statement this time.
Use of nuclear weapons is not Russia's current primary choice . Russia still uses nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip for pressure in negotiations, rather than really putting nuclear weapons on the battlefield.
So the probability of Russia using nuclear weapons is still very small.
But Russia did not say anything about it, and if the situation changes further in the future, Russia will not rule out the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine.
From a strength and technology perspective, this is not much problem.
And if Russia only uses nuclear weapons against Ukraine, , then the Americans will not start nuclear exchange with Russia for Ukraine .
Americans will continue to control the remote control behind the scenes, attack Russia in public opinion and diplomacy, and let Europeans be pawns to consume with Russia.
Unless Russia throws the nuclear bomb on the US mainland, Otherwise, the nuclear war between the United States and Russia will not break out. .
