Editor's note: The "North Stream-2" and "North Stream-1" natural gas pipelines in the waters near Denmark broke three times on the 26th and were accompanied by huge explosions and vibrations. Almost all investigations admitted that "it is almost impossible to be coincidental" and "the possibility of damage cannot be ruled out." However, there are different opinions on who might be and what method to impose damage.
"North Stream" pipeline structure is quite solid
"It is unlikely to be a fault"
Denmark said that on the 26th local time, a leak occurred near Bornholm Island, Denmark. Soon after, two leak points were found in the " Nord Stream-1" pipeline, located in the waters near Denmark and Sweden. The on-site monitoring screen shows that a large number of bubbles formed on the sea surface at the accident site. The Swedish Maritime Agency warns nearby ships to maintain a distance of 5 nautical miles from the leaking site because of the flammability of natural gas , and the leaked gases are at risk of fire and combustion.
The particularity of these three leak accidents has attracted great attention from the outside world. The British " Guardian " said that in order to withstand the huge pressure when transporting natural gas, the two sets of "North Stream" pipelines are designed very strongly: they are usually made of steel shells that are 27-41 mm thick, and there is a special coating of 60-110 mm thick on the outside, so conventional failures are unlikely to cause serious damage to them. Ekaterina Kosareva, an expert at Russian WMT Consult, stressed that the leakage is unlikely to be caused by a seam failure. Because this type of failure will not cause the internal pressure to drop to zero, it is also difficult to occur at 3 places at the same time. In addition, the explosion is unlikely to be related to the legacy bombs left by during in World War II. "Before laying pipelines under the sea, exploration work must be carried out first, and then waters including mine removal can be cleaned before laying it in the end."
At the same time as the leakage incident occurred, the Swedish earthquake monitoring station recorded a significant vibration, with one of the magnitudes of reaching 2.3. The earthquake stations in Denmark, Norway and Finland also recorded explosions. "It's no doubt not an earthquake," said Lund, director of the Swedish National Earthquake Network. Danish experts described it as "comparable to the power of a giant bomb explosion in World War II." Russian President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the possibility of "North Stream" pipeline accident was not ruled out.
Underwater laying of the "North Stream" pipeline requires special ships. What tools may be used for
?
Is there any way to cause serious damage to the underwater "North Stream" pipeline? The Guardian said that the water depth of the two "Northern Stream" pipelines usually only lasts dozens of meters to more than 100 meters. For modern navy, working at such depth is not difficult. German security authorities believe that considering the specific circumstances of the leakage, it is likely that "diver or small submarine " installed mine or explosives on the pipeline, and "only state actors" can do this. Some Western experts believe that since the precise location of the "North Stream" pipeline is not a secret, the destroyer can set up timed bottom mines and release the ship to a predetermined position under the sea when it passes through the waters above the target. A British military source speculated that the mines might have been quietly laid from a disguised merchant ship and detonated several days or weeks later. "This is an action that requires caution, but does not require particularly professional military resources."
Russia also came to a similar conclusion. Russian "Opinion" said on the 28th that Russian military Sergei Ishenko said that it is not difficult to destroy the underwater natural gas pipeline. "The self-navigation mine with the explosion depth and time can be dropped from the side of any ship. It can be released from the warship or submarine , and the submarine is a very ideal carrier."
Russian military expert Vadim Kojiulin believes that although underwater frogmen can also theoretically perform such sabotage activities, considering the depth of the sea area where the "North Stream" pipeline is located, special ships must be deployed near the explosion site so that divers performing missions can reduce pressure. In this case, covering up the sabotage is almost impossible, and it is also impossible to quickly escape the scene.Therefore, he believes that the incident is more likely to be detonating a mine through a one-time unmanned submarine . "Now, many countries are developing hundreds of submarines, including those suitable for similar missions. Most of them have artificial intelligence systems, so they can be destroyed even in offline mode, and it is difficult to determine the culprit." Who did
?
Although Russia and the West have basically agreed on how to destroy the "North Stream" pipeline, both sides blame each other on who is the culprit. The US Power website said that observers have previously paid attention to Russia's ability to attack subsea pipelines or cables. " Russian Navy has a large number of special mission submarines, deep-sea submersible and unmanned underwater vehicle . In addition to monitoring and cutting off submarine communication cables, they may also be used to destroy natural gas pipelines." The report also mentioned that the "Belgorod" special nuclear submarine that was in service not long ago can carry a variety of submarines to perform complex submarine operations. "But the boat is currently operating in White Sea , and the water depth in the Baltic Sea is too shallow, which is not suitable for the activities of such large nuclear submarines." German "Spiegel" said that the US Central Intelligence Agency had warned Germany that the Baltic gas pipeline could be attacked earlier this summer.
But the Russian navy's underwater operation capabilities listed by the US media are also possessed by the West. Russian military expert Vladimir Gondarov said that the British were the most likely to destroy the "Northern Stream" pipeline. "The British Navy's Special Forces Base is located in Norway. They have all the special equipment needed for underwater operations, which may be the long-range detonation of explosives through unmanned submarines."
"Opinion" said that some indirect signs indicate that the US Navy was involved in the incident. Because US President Biden issued a statement after meeting with German Chancellor Scholz in early February this year, saying: "If Russian tank and the army cross the border, then the 'North Stream-2' will not exist, and we will end it." When asked how to do it, Biden emphasized: "We can do this." On June 14, the US "Maritime Force" magazine revealed that the US Navy's anti-mine force used unmanned submarines on a large scale near Bornholm Island in Denmark, "it is close to the submarine natural gas pipeline." The U.S. Navy was holding exercises nearby when the accident occurred. Russian media noticed that starting from September 2, the US Navy's MH-60S helicopter began to fly densely over two underwater natural gas pipelines east of Bornholm Island. "The United States may be practicing how to put explosives on the bottom of the sea." According to reports, U.S. helicopters have been flying over the pipeline until September 13. The U.S. Navy ship left the area where the pipeline was located on the evening of the 21st. "A few days later, the Swedish seismometer recorded a huge explosion." ▲
Special correspondent Chen Yang Liu Yupeng
