Putin attacks European energy again!
According to Gazprom, because the only remaining compressor of the "Nord Stream" pipeline needs to undergo technical maintenance, the gas supply of the pipeline will be cut off from the previous 20% to 0 for 3 days. The 3-day suspension of
seems to have little impact, right? But Europeans won’t be able to sleep!
Why? Because the Russian side made very outrageous remarks, saying that "if there is no technical failure ", the gas supply will be restored in three days.
Who has the final say whether there is a "technical glitch"? Russia!
This means that Putin has now publicly dropped a "time bomb" and is warning Europeans whether to restore the gas supply, stop it a few more times, or reduce the supply. Everything is possible. It just depends. You performed!
This makes Europe very anxious.
You must know that it is already autumn, and Europe is frantically stocking up on natural gas for the winter. However, according to data from the International Monetary Fund , the comprehensive reserves of European countries The gas rate is only 66%. If Russia stops gas now, countries such as Germany, Italy and Austria will suffer from 15% energy shortage. Czech Republic, Slovakia and other Eastern European countries will face up to 40% of natural gas shortage. gap!
This is calculated based on normal conditions. If it is a cold winter this year, how will we survive this winter?
Originally, without Russia, Europe would have been in a difficult situation. Affected by the previous cuts in Russian pipeline supply, continued high temperature and drought, and the surge in gas storage demand, the price of natural gas in Europe was like a stick on the butt SkyMonkey has a tendency to soar.
Last week, the natural gas futures price of the "European natural gas weather vane" Netherlands TTF reached a high of 300 euros/MWh, which was 10 times the price of the same period last year!
has been transmitted to electricity prices, and European electricity prices have also doubled again and again. The "European benchmark electricity price" has risen to more than 1,000 euros/MWh for the first time in history, which is nearly 7 yuan per degree in RMB!
How do you live your life?
At this time, Europe, which is almost desperate, can no longer withstand any threats from Russia to reduce production or cut off supply!
China, the savior of Europe?
It is precisely to prevent Putin from doing this. A few months ago, Europeans who were afraid of being cold had already begun to seek anger all over the world.
From in the Middle East Qatar to Norway in Northern Europe, from Azerbaijan in Eastern Europe to Canada and the United States in North America, from pipeline natural gas to LNG, Europeans will buy whatever is available regardless of the cost.
But the most surprising thing is that there is China on this list.
According to reports, EU countries are now purchasing a large number of "excess" Chinese LNG through the spot market to increase winter reserves.
As we all know, the spot market prices follow the market trends. Under the current situation of soaring energy prices, there is only one characteristic: expensive.
So now that LNG is sold, China can steal a handful of European wool!
It is said that a Chinese LNG trader has recently made hundreds of millions of dollars in profits by reselling LNG to European buyers.
According to data from the " Financial Times ", China's total LNG resale volume in the first half of the year may exceed 4 million tons, equivalent to about 7% of Europe's natural gas imports during the same period.
Guang Sinopec disclosed that it has resold more than 3 million tons of "excess LNG" in the international market so far.
" Nikkei " lamented, " Thanks to China's resale of LNG, Europe seems to be expected to avoid the winter energy shortage dilemma and achieve its original gas storage target before November."
Although it is not without suspicion of sowing relations between China and Russia, it also indirectly shows that Chinese energy companies have indeed made a lot of money in this regard.
The key is that it is easy to make money. After all, most of our natural gas is purchased at long-term contract prices. Now it is sold at the spot market price. The price difference is obvious. What’s even better is that the delivery process may be omitted and it can be directly Just let the Europeans go to the seller’s port to pick up the goods!
The last time such a good thing happened was in March this year. Sinopec forced Trump to buy LNG from China and resold it to Europe, and transported it from American ports to European ports. Sinopec easily made money.
caught up twice in a row. When have our Chinese energy companies ever been so proud?
Of course, there is a hint of "abnormality" behind this matter.
According to the situation in previous years, China is the absolute king of the international energy market. Just last year, China's natural gas demand hit the fastest growth rate in history. LNG demand increased by 18% over the previous year, surpassing Japan in one fell swoop and becoming the world's largest. Among LNG importing countries, the proportion of spot purchases is as high as 39%.
Then why did we not have enough to eat last year, but are we so well off this year?
First of all, the sluggish demand caused by factors such as the epidemic has led to a decline in the annual growth rate of natural gas consumption, so the procurement pace can be relatively slowed down.
Secondly, compared to Europe, our supply side is stable.
Energy in the current international market is too expensive, and the situation between Russia and Ukraine is unclear. There are no signs of easing Western sanctions against Russia. The wave of international winter reserves will push energy prices skyward. According to the scale of China’s natural gas imports , the burden of large-scale buying is too great now.
What should we do? Stabilize supply from two aspects.
First, expand domestic production capacity.
According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on August 15, in July, China imported 8.7 million tons of natural gas, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%; China produced 17.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 8.2%, and the growth rate was 17.1 billion cubic meters. Month-to-month growth rate increased by 7.8 percentage points, with average daily output of 550 million cubic meters.
From January to July, China produced 126.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. Imported natural gas was 62.21 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%.
In other words, while we are reducing imports and even import arbitrage, we are also accelerating domestic production to offset the risk of international energy prices driving up domestic prices.
Second, the reduction of imports mentioned here does not mean the reduction of all types of imports.
Throughout the first half of the year, our overall natural gas imports did decrease by 8.9%, but mainly LNG imports decreased by 19%, while pipeline natural gas imports increased by 10%.
As mentioned before, China's spot LNG procurement proportion will be as high as 39% in 2021. This spot price follows the market, and you will be sold when the market price is high, such as Europe, which currently collects gas at the market price.
China’s import reduction this year is mainly due to this aspect.
Our current LNG orders basically eliminate spot purchases. They are all long-term contracts of 10-20 years with stable prices. This is equivalent to structural optimization and risk optimization.
As for the increase, it is mainly pipeline natural gas.
To put it bluntly, there is more pipeline supply from Russia.
Nowadays, as Russia and Europe are at odds, it is certain that in the future, Europe will gradually implement a strategy of energy diversification, get rid of its dependence on Russian gas, and reduce its demand for Russian gas. Then China is almost the only source of Russian pipeline natural gas Potential big customers.
Therefore, the more fierce the turmoil in Europe, the greater the room for growth in China-Russia energy cooperation.
From January to August this year, while Putin was pinching gas in Europe, Gazprom increased its natural gas supply to China through the " Siberian Power" pipeline by 60%. The gas transmission volume of the pipeline has long exceeded the agreed gas supply volume. In July On March 24th, the historical gas transmission volume was directly refreshed!
Of course, the current supply is still limited due to pipeline laying problems, but the growth momentum is rapid.
For example, the "Power of Siberia" natural gas pipeline only started supplying gas at the end of 2019. The gas supply volume reached 4.1 billion cubic meters in 2020, increased to 10.4 billion cubic meters in 2021, and will reach 38 billion cubic meters by 2025. cubic meter.
In addition, China and Russia have signed an agreement to export natural gas to China through the Far East and Hasalin regions, which were previously mainly supplied to Japan. This area also has 10 billion cubic meters per year.
If you include the "Power of Siberia-2" and the "Eastern Alliance" natural gas pipeline extending through Mongolia, Gazprom's natural gas exports to China can increase by another 50 billion cubic meters per year.
With Russia’s supply bottom line, China’s pressure on the supply side is not great. Even if it is a cold winter this year, at worst, we still have coal production capacity, so it is impossible to have an energy panic like Europe’s.
Therefore, China’s LNG can be resold for arbitrage with confidence!
Europe: Who is worse than me!
Although Japan has maliciously given China the top hat of "solving Europe's winter energy storage dilemma", we all know that the LNG resold by China is a drop in the bucket and cannot solve Europe's energy problems at all.
After all, even if Europe survives this winter, as long as the Gazprom supply problem is not solved, Europe will have an energy crisis for a long time in the future.
So how can we really solve this problem?
The first way is to follow Biden’s chest-beating promise and rely on me to make America great!
But the most dramatic part of this matter is here. When Biden wanted to win over the EU to impose sanctions on Russia in the first half of the year, he did make a commitment to natural gas exports to the EU.
However, high energy prices are now the reason for Biden’s low support rate. The United States’ own energy supply is not enough. Could Biden divert American natural gas to support the European Union?
So some time ago, when the EU was in an energy crisis, the U.S. natural gas export port actually exploded. The consequence of the explosion was that exports were restricted, and the natural gas originally scheduled to be exported remained in the United States - Europe had no control over its life and death!
What’s even more amazing is that now that the EU is desperate to survive the winter, what do the Americans do?
Recently, U.S. Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm has spoken out to U.S. energy companies, explicitly asking them not to increase energy exports to European allies because the United States itself wants to increase its inventory!
What about watching the stars and the moon together as we promised before? What about helping the EU diversify its energy supply?
Biden is a scumbag!
Okay, as we said before, the United States is clearly suppressing energy exports to Europe, so why does the Minister of Energy still come out and say this?
is the same as reselling LNG in China, because Europeans are making so much money now!
loads a LNG ship at the US port for 60 million US dollars, and the price becomes 275 million when shipped to Europe. A single shipment can make a profit of nearly 200 million US dollars. In the words of Wall Street , "Now What we are talking about is not the profit percentage, but the profit multiple." Under this kind of multiple, who wouldn't want to sell their anger to Europe?
According to the International Energy Agency, more natural gas was shipped to Europe from the United States in June than was piped in from Russia.
So the United States has indeed given Europe a boost, but the price of the contract signed by Biden has nothing to do with it. American capitalists are the most ruthless in making money from Europe, and they are almost going to kill the Europeans !
But even with such high profits, the US government is no longer willing to lose its temper to the EU. What do you think Biden's promise is worth?
Therefore, Europe has to "help itself", which is another way to improve its relations with Russia.
This is also the most pragmatic way. After all, the focus of the energy conflict between Russia and Europe is Ukraine . The Europeans can hardly live anymore, so what is the point of sticking to Ukraine now?
So now, many voices, including the German Deputy Speaker and mayors of many places, are calling for the launch of "Beixi-2" - this is a signal to ease relations with Russia.
Their reasons are also very valid - The natural gas from one pipeline is not "nastier" than the other. Since Germany is using the natural gas imported from the "Nord Stream" pipeline, why can't it use the " Nord Stream-" 2"?
But why does Germany not activate "Beixi-2"? Because of this crux, the Germans have no control over US sanctions on this pipeline!
So Putin is holding the "Nord Stream" pipeline, partly because he is pushing Scholz and even Germany as a whole to make them determined to compete with the United States!
How did Scholz do it? Although his support for Ukraine has dropped sharply and is obviously inconsistent with the pace of the United States, on the Russian issue, he would rather put coal-fired power plants and nuclear power plants into operation under pressure, but he does not dare to relax on Russian sanctions and energy.
Others, on the other hand, are active.
After Putin recently completely cut off the "Nord Stream" pipeline, Von der Leyen also came out to confront Putin, proposing "structural reform of the electricity market to get rid of dependence on dirty Russian fossil fuels."
The German Foreign Minister even said that he would support Ukraine "no matter what the voters choose."
This is a stupid thing to say. Look at the Yellow Vest movement in France in 2018. Macron only raised the fuel tax by a few cents. Hundreds of thousands of people in France revolted. Now in Europe there are still " No matter what the voters choose” space?
With these people here, how could the "Beixi" pipeline not need to be repaired? How can Europe not be short of natural gas in the next few years?
At the end of the article, Rong Ping said that
is far more than just China and the United States.
For example, India buys discounted oil from Russia and sells it to Europe at a higher price;
For example, Saudi Arabia imports fuel from Russia and then "sells its own crude oil to the international market at a higher price." A large part of it is also sold to of Europe.
Even natural gas giant Iran is importing Russian natural gas, thinking of taking advantage of the loosening of sanctions to sell it to Europe to make money using
...
Anyway, all parties have made money, and Europe has gained face by supporting Ukraine, and everyone is happy. As for the euro becoming the biggest loser in the Russia-Ukraine war, possible turmoil in European society, possible cracks in the EU due to uneven energy distribution, and other negative impacts, Who cares?
Of course, the entire European Union is not without sober examples.
such as hungarian .
When the European Union called for "wear more sweaters", "put on blankets at home", "wash only four parts of the bath", "skin will clean itself" and "countries reduce demand by 15%", Hungary was negotiating with Russia, and finally in the original On the basis of a long-term agreement, we successfully obtained Putin’s bid to deliver additional winter natural gas to Hungary.
This is the price according to the original long-term agreement. Other European countries will probably cry with envy!
This is the second way we mentioned earlier, which is to improve relations with Russia and save ourselves outside the United States.
It’s a pity that in such a big European Union, there is only one Orban.
So, everyone has voluntarily stood in the pit. If we don’t take the opportunity to grab some, wouldn’t it be too disrespectful?
