On the last day of June, Philippines President-elect Marcos Jr. was officially sworn in. At this point, the Duterte era has come to an end. After the new president of the Philippines takes office, what attitude he will take towards China has always been the focus of attention from the outside world.
It is worth mentioning that on the day of his inauguration, Marcos met with Chinese representatives attending the inauguration ceremony. During the conversation, Marcos emphasized one point in particular, that is, the new Philippine government attaches great importance to relations with China and is willing to work with China to deal with regional challenges.
(Philippine new president Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and his wife Louise Araneta)
Anyone with a discerning eye can see that the “regional challenges” that Marcos Jr. refers to actually refer to extraterritorial forces led by the United States. It is precisely their existence and preparations that put the entire South China Sea region at risk of instability. Marcos Jr.'s statement directed at the United States is actually equivalent to setting a general direction for the Philippines' foreign policy this term.
As we all know, in recent years, the United States and its allies have continuously sent warships to engage in so-called "free navigation" in the South China Sea. They not only show off their power at China's doorstep, but also use "grey zone" tactics in an attempt to prevent China from exercising sovereignty in the South China Sea. At the same time, the United States continues to attract countries surrounding the South China Sea to join its camp, trying to establish a "China-containing encirclement" around the South China Sea.
However, despite the United States’ merrymaking in the South China Sea, neighboring countries actually see it very clearly: the United States is far away and China is very close. The United States is not allowed to have pirates on board its ships because it is at odds with China over the South China Sea issue, and the gains outweigh the losses. The Philippines is one of them. For example, Marcos' predecessor Duterte adopted a relatively stable and open policy on the South China Sea issue.
The latter not only put the brakes on the "South China Sea Arbitration Case" proposed by former pro-US President Aquino III , but also cooled down the situation in the South China Sea that was once close to a conflict, thus greatly easing relations with China.
As the new president of the Philippines, Marcos can be regarded as a staunch supporter of Duterte's China policy. The two presidents, one after another, knew very well that the Philippines’ economic development is inseparable from cooperation with China. At the same time, the biggest threat to the friendly relations between Duterte and China and the Philippines that he has spent six years building comes from the United States.
(Former Philippine President Duterte)
From beginning to end, the United States, unwilling to withdraw from this region, has been constantly looking for opportunities to create crises in the South China Sea, and by provoking nationalist sentiments and anti-China public opinion in countries surrounding the South China Sea, to influence these countries’ China policies.
Therefore, we should be able to understand why Marcos "jumped left and right" on some sensitive issues towards China before he came to power: one moment he was tough on China, shouting "will not give in on sovereignty issues"; the next moment he downplayed the issue. China's stance is to "put aside disputes" with China on the South China Sea issue.
These actions of Marcos Jr. are actually to a large extent aimed at balancing the political forces of all parties in the country and responding to domestic public opinion. After all, the domestic political landscape in the Philippines is very complex. Although the Philippine government, represented by Duterte and Marcos Jr., adheres to a friendly policy toward China, various opposition parties, as well as traditional pro-American forces such as the Philippine military, which has close ties with the United States, Still strong. Therefore, we cannot expect that the new leader will adopt a "one-sided" foreign policy after taking office.
Especially considering that Marcos has just come to power, his ruling foundation is not yet stable, and his control over the military is also very weak. In terms of foreign policy, it is unlikely that Marcos will have the political skill and courage of Duterte. Therefore, balancing between China and the United States will be the main diplomatic theme of the new Philippine government for a long time.
Of course, as long as the Philippines does not choose sides, this will be beneficial to China. After all, what we want is very simple, that is, regional peace and stability. This is in line with the fundamental interests of all countries in the region, including China and the Philippines.
