According to the US Bloomberg report, Ukraine has a debt of US$1.4 billion due before September 1 this year, but Ukraine may not be able to get the money.
1.4 billion in debt is obviously not a large amount for a country with the size of Ukraine’s economy, but there are several practical problems: First, currently about 7 million taxpayers have left Ukraine due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and the country’s economy is suffering from military spending. collapsed due to the severity of the expenditure. Secondly, according to Zelensky, Ukraine has had a monthly budget deficit of 7 billion euros since February. This money is used for wages, pensions and social support. The International Monetary Fund had earlier approved funding to Ukraine allocated US$1.4 billion as emergency aid, but this obviously did not satisfy the Ukrainian president. Zelensky asked G7 countries to allocate US$50 billion to pay for the above funds.
However, considering that the transparency of the funds used by the Kiev authorities has been very low for a long time, the possibility of the G7 countries allocating 50 billion US dollars is a big question mark. After all, although Biden is old, it is not yet So stupid: leading a group of boys to throw money into a bottomless pit.
American media believe that the Kiev authorities will ease the debt crisis in several ways.
The first is to negotiate with creditors to postpone payments. The Ukrainian authorities are negotiating with the International Monetary Fund to postpone debt repayments. The country's long-term debt amounted to US$94 billion at the end of last year.
The second is to use Russia’s frozen assets. The Ukrainian authorities have previously proposed to sign relevant agreements with EU countries and the United States to transfer Russian gold worth approximately US$300 billion to Kiev. With the connivance of the West, Ukraine can completely "legally "Land" misappropriation of Russian money. However, this approach has no legal basis, and once it becomes a fact, it is unknown what kind of response Russia will have, and the unknown risks are too high.
The third is to carry out so-called debt restructuring. Ukraine's economy could shrink by at least 30% this year, according to estimates from Ukraine's central bank , and Ukraine's bonds due in September are trading at more than 40% below their face value, according to calculations by Bloomberg. Kyiv is studying the possibility of restructuring its national debt as financing options "are about to dry up. Under one of the options, the issuer would ask bondholders to change the terms of the issued securities.
From a Western perspective, putting the country in default Politically it would be unprofitable, because then Ukraine would lose the image of an independent country supposedly capable of self-development and war. However, in reality, there is no military and political throwback to Russia from Ukraine. From the perspective of a positive response to the olive branch, there is no clear end date for the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the country in a state of war, Ukraine needs to rely on Western countries for blood transfusions to survive, but it is obvious that this The unconventional state is difficult to sustain for a long time.
