If the supply of natural gas from Russia stops, Europe will need to cut its natural gas consumption by 30% by mid-February next year.
Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that if Russia decides to completely stop natural gas exports, it will be necessary for Europe to massively reduce natural gas consumption, and leaders of various countries should prepare for this situation.
Birol said:
" Depending on the timing, a complete Russian gas supply cutoff to Europe could result in EU countries' pre-winter gas reserve levels well below average, leaving the EU in a very vulnerable position. In the current context Next, I do not rule out the possibility of Russia completely cutting off natural gas exports to Europe. "
Currently, Europe is working to store natural gas before winter. Earlier this month, Russia cut the flow of natural gas to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline by 60%, citing technical issues, making it harder for EU countries to stockpile. The EU's gas supply situation could worsen if Russia completely stops shipping gas to the region in the coming weeks. EU forecasts show that while the current warehousing rate is expected to reach 90% by November 1, this level will fall below 75% in the event of a supply gap.
Birol said this would mean a "significant increase" in petrol prices . Benchmark European natural gas futures prices have more than tripled since the same period last year, ICEEndex data shows.
Birol said Europe should now focus on reducing gas use in industry and households to ensure as much of its gas supply as possible is stored.
Germany, Europe's largest economy, is looking for ways to incentivize industry to use less natural gas. Germany plans to introduce an auction system starting this summer to encourage industry to reduce natural gas consumption. The governments of Berlin and Copenhagen are encouraging people to spend less time bathing at home.
An industry organization recently said that if Russia completely shuts off natural gas supplies, the German economy may shrink by 12.7% in the remainder of this year. According to a report by the Bavarian Industry Association, Germany may lose up to 193 billion euros ($204 billion) in goods and services output, and may lose up to 5.6 million jobs, causing political instability.
The Bavarian Industry Association, whose members include BMW and Deutsche Telekom , said in a statement:
"Stop the supply of will lead us towards recession, with serious consequences for employment and social cohesion in our country. We therefore urge that we A natural gas embargo may be avoided.”
On the other hand, Fitch, one of the world’s three largest rating companies, also pointed out that Russia’s suspension of natural gas supplies will expose the Central and Eastern European region to major macro shocks, including negative growth and rising inflation in many cases. , which may put pressure on the ratings of these countries. Among the countries in Central and Eastern Europe, Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic are the most vulnerable to Russia's sudden cessation of natural gas supplies to EU countries.
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