Text/Yang Guoying
The United States, which calls itself a beacon of civilization,
has just abolished women’s right to abortion.
In the past two days, Americans have begun flying the flag upside down to express their protest against the Supreme Court of the United States.
Just the day before yesterday, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the Roe v. Wade case (which had lasted for nearly half a century) and gave states the power to enact abortion laws.
As soon as the U.S. Supreme Court ruling came out, many states in the United States responded actively and immediately signed state laws "banning abortion."
has a huge impact.
I don’t want to discuss the female power and reproductive rights involved in this matter.
What I want to discuss is that this incident is a signal of accelerating division within the United States and even Western society.
This is a key signal that the United States is moving towards cultural conservatism.
This is the accelerating tearing between American conservatives and liberals.
Cultural conservatism has begun to show up in the Trump era. Many of the U.S. Supreme Court judges who overturned the "Roe v. Wade" case this time were originally nominated by Trump.
Cultural conservatism has made the beacon of American civilization lose its light.
Since and World War II, , the core of the reason why the United States has become the dominant country lies in the dual opening up of American culture and economy.
The culture is open (free) and the best talents in the world can be obtained at low cost (or even zero cost). Economic opening can allow American finance and American manufacturing to flow around the world.
Note that cultural openness is the top priority.
Cultural openness is the key for the United States to obtain talents (and capital) from all over the world at low cost, which in turn allows the United States to continue to maintain the best higher education in the world, and allows the United States to continue to lead the world in technological innovation.
However, the "ban on abortion" in the United States just now has eclipsed the cultural openness of the United States. In the words of Biden , "This ruling has set the United States back 150 years!"
This also means that in the past two years, The "cultural openness and economic conservatism" that Den was trying to maintain lost its support.
In the Trump era, the United States began to turn to a dual conservatism of culture and economy. As usual, the United States will inevitably accelerate its decline.
However, in the Biden era, Biden is clearly one step ahead of Trump, pursuing "cultural openness" and "economic conservatism" in parallel.
Whether it is Trump or Biden, the United States has embarked on "economic conservatism". To a certain extent, it is a helpless and inevitable move, because in the past 20 years, especially in the past 10 years, the U.S. economy has had a negative impact on the world. It began to lose momentum, especially as the U.S. manufacturing industry began to face comprehensive challenges from China.
As long as it adheres to "cultural openness," the United States can still maintain its dominant position in the world for 30 years or even longer.
Because cultural openness not only allows the United States to acquire the best talents in the world at low cost, thereby maintaining its core advantage of technological innovation in the world, but also cultural openness is the core value of the United States that unites the Western world.
But now, the conservative signal of American culture triggered by the "ban on abortion" has begun to tear apart American society, and even the entire Western society. Therefore, after the U.S. Supreme Court ruling, not only Biden denounced it, but also the heads of state of Britain, France, Germany and other countries. They were all uneasy.
If this internal tear further accelerates, then there may be doubts about whether the United States can maintain its dominance in the world for 10 years.
Therefore, when looking at China and the United States today, we must look at it dialectically.
In today's United States, the obvious contradiction lies in the contradiction between the bottom red neck maintaining its traditional dignity and the open culture of the United States (also the culture of immigrants).
In today's China, the obvious contradiction lies in the contradiction between the high-income earners trying to transcend their economic power and the pursuit of substantive equality in society as a whole.
has said so much, what does it have to do with investment? This is something many readers often ask.
In fact, investment skills always take into account two points, one is hard skills, and the other is soft skills.
This is like writing poetry. Familiar with three hundred Tang poems. This refers to the hard work of investing in in-depth research and requires diligence. The focus is on in-depth research on industries and companies.
Kung Fu lies beyond poetry, which refers to the soft kung fu of investing in macro prediction, which requires perception and focuses on the key global political, economic and cultural signals.
starts with the cultural conservative signal just sent by the United States. As long as it is further accelerated, it will have an impact on the US dollar, the US economy, and especially the potential of US technological innovation in the medium and long term. Of course, the impact will be gradual.
Therefore, in the medium term, the overall difficulties currently encountered by China and the United States are actually similar to each other, but they have different focuses.
Therefore, when it comes to investment, there is no need to worry about gains and losses between China and the United States. Don't be like Danbin and other private equity tycoons, who almost cleared A shares at a low price, and then bought the bottom US stocks halfway up the mountain.
In the future world, from the perspective of economic growth, the country with the greatest growth potential should not be China and the United States, Europe, Japan and South Korea, nor India and Africa, but Southeast Asia. I have said this before.
Therefore, as for investment, for medium and high-income investors, starting from September, it should be time to allocate a small amount of funds in major Southeast Asian economies, and wait for the decline in Southeast Asian stock markets caused by the contraction of the US dollar.
Finally, let’s talk about the global non-ferrous metal plummet since June.
html Since June, not only oil prices have plummeted, but also non-ferrous metals including tin, copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, nickel and other non-ferrous metals have almost plummeted globally, and some are already half way from their March highs.The continued plunge of global non-ferrous metals means that the global economy has begun to send signals of recession.
This will of course have no negative impact on the short-term Chinese economy.
Because of the heavy stimulus effect from the end of April to the beginning of May, we will continue for a while. The economy itself will have to last at least until September and October. As for the moderate early reaction of the capital market, it should also last until at least August.
The recent continuous plunge in crude oil and non-ferrous metals will have different impacts on different companies in different industries.
For resource companies, obviously, the impact on their expected performance is negative.
For manufacturing companies with huge resource purchases, it is obvious that the impact on their expected performance will be positive.
At the same time, in this wave of plummeting non-ferrous metals, some scarce resource targets provide a quite good range for to attract .
