On June 23, local time, the European Council decided to grant Ukraine and Moldova EU candidate member status
Xiang Changhe (International Issues Scholar)
On June 23, the EU Summer Summit decided to grant Ukraine and Moldova the status of candidate members. EU candidate membership status. European Council President Michel said on social media that day that this is a historic moment, marking a key step for Ukraine and Moldova on the road to the EU. After the news of
came out, some optimistic voices emerged. It seems that Ukraine is "running to join the EU" and becoming a formal member is just around the corner. Ukrainian President Zelensky posted on social media that this was a "unique and historic moment" in the relationship between Ukraine and the EU and that "Ukraine's future lies in the EU." However, ideals are very full and reality is very skinny. Many things cannot be just based on the excitement of the moment. History is the best textbook.
As early as the beginning of the new century, Ukraine expressed its desire to join the European Union. In 2004, when the first " orange revolution " was launched, leaning toward the West and joining the EU became a major political demand of the orange camp. However, in the end, it was that favored , and the EU would never relent in responding to the demand for joining the EU. In the comedy movie that Zelensky starred in that year, the scene where the "President" he played was ecstatic when he received the call that the EU was allowed to join the EU was impressive. However, whenever the conflict between Russia and Ukraine breaks out, many Ukrainians, including Zelensky himself, believe that the historical opportunity to join the European Union has emerged, and the black humor in the movie may actually become a reality. As a result, the high-profile "fire line application" to join the European Union spread throughout the world through the Internet.
A few days ago, leaders of the four EU countries including France, Germany, Italy and Romania jointly visited Kiev, the capital of Ukraine, and promised to grant Ukraine EU candidate country status. Now, the EU summit has undoubtedly "seal" this commitment. However, despite the expedited mode of "special affairs" to allow Ukraine to qualify for the EU, the EU accession process is a marathon, and there is a long way to go from obtaining candidate country status to finally joining the EU and becoming a full member. During this period, Ukraine has to pass through a series of political and technical hurdles. Only when it finally "collapses" can it be considered a success.
In 1957, the predecessor of the European Union, the European Community, was established by the six founding countries - France, Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg. In 1973, the United Kingdom, Denmark and Ireland joined. In 1981, Greece became the 10th member of the European Community. In 1986, Portugal and Spain from the Iberian Peninsula joined. In 1995, three "neutral countries" including Austria, Sweden and Finland joined. In May 2004, the EU experienced the largest enlargement in its history, with the expansion of Malta , Cyprus , Poland , Hungary , Czech , Slovakia , Slovenia , Estonia , Latvia and Lithuania and other 10 countries have joined the EU, and the vast majority are Central and Eastern European countries. In January 2007, Bulgaria and Romania joined the EU. Since then, the boundaries of the EU's eastward expansion have been basically determined. In 2013, the Balkan Croatian joined the EU.
It can be seen from these processes that the EU's enlargement is first based on political and strategic considerations, followed by economic factors. The EU's initial enlargement was an object of ideological and economic identification with itself. Later, out of strategic considerations against Russia, it pulled 10 Eastern European countries into its embrace. After 2010, integrating the former Yugoslavia countries in the Western Balkans (almost surrounded by EU member states) became the strategic focus of EU enlargement. Due to the weakening economy and declining strength, the EU's too-rapid enlargement process has caused its own "indigestion". The shadow of Britain's "Brexit" on European integration has not disappeared, and the EU has long ceased to pursue enlargement.
Taking the Western Balkans, which is the focus of the EU, countries such as Serbia, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Montenegro have started the process of joining the EU to varying degrees many years ago, but the progress has been slow. At present, the fastest progress is made by Serbia and Montenegro, which are expected to become new members of the EU as early as 2025; followed by North Macedonia and Albania. EU member states reached an agreement in March this year to start accession negotiations between the two countries. Albanian Prime Minister Rama recently issued a warning to Ukraine not to have "illusions" about quickly joining the European Union .
Joining the EU is still a "technical job". The EU can control the accession process of candidate countries through "technical parameters". According to the procedure, after becoming a candidate country, the first step is to strive to start EU accession negotiations, and the second step is the EU accession negotiations themselves, which involve many aspects such as free market economy, stable democracy and rule of law and connection with EU law. Which "technical parameter" does not meet the EU standards, Brussels will issue "rectification conditions" until the standards are met before entering the final stage of EU accession.
Turkish is the most typical example. Turkey formally applied as early as 1987 and became a candidate country in 1999. However, it has been unable to start accession negotiations. In early October 2005, EU countries stayed up all night arguing in Luxembourg over whether to start accession negotiations. It was said that it was only after the United States greeted them that they finally agreed to start accession negotiations. In the following ten years, EU-Turkey relations have been in constant turmoil. The EU claimed that Turkey failed to "meet the standards" and the accession negotiations have actually been suspended. It is still unclear when the negotiations will be restarted.
European public opinion generally believes that the EU's rapid granting of candidate country status to Ukraine is only symbolic and reflects a gesture of political "solidarity". At this stage, there are different opinions within the EU. Analysts believe that some Western European countries are worried that Ukraine's accession will cause the EU's balance of power to shift further eastward, and some countries are worried that Ukraine's accession will divert a large amount of the EU budget. Portuguese Prime Minister Costa even made it clear that countries at war are not eligible to join the EU.
Therefore, Ukraine’s road to EU membership is long and difficult. Former Russian President Medvedev said that Ukraine will not be able to truly join the EU until the middle of this century, and by then the EU may have disappeared. This may not be just a joke. Photo courtesy/Visual China
