From "Made in China" to " Made in Vietnam "
A clothing factory in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
In the past, most of the clothes and shoes worn by Europeans and Americans were "Made in China" . Therefore, Hollywood movies will always have lines like "When the Chinese go on strike, Americans will have no clothes to wear." Although it is ugly, it does make sense. Because it reflects the fact from the side that China is a veritable "world factory" . According to statistics from the World Trade Organization , China produces about 57% of the world's shoes and 35% of the world's clothing every year. As a veritable world manufacturing power, China currently accounts for about 34% of the world's manufacturing output value.
Materials for Trump supporters produced in Yiwu
During the 2016 US presidential election , the American press noticed such a special phenomenon. The candidates at that time were Trump and Hillary . Although Hillary’s Trump once surpassed Trump in the polls, but eventually lost. Some U.S. economists found that the quantity and scale of small commodities such as clothing, hats, and flags produced by Trump supporters in Yiwu, Zhejiang, China, far exceeded supplies from Hillary supporters, thus concluding that Trump would win the election, and that was indeed the case.
The hat Trump is wearing is a "Make America Great Again" brand designed by his own company, but it is basically produced in Yiwu, China.
This is the "Yiwu Index" proposed by the American economic circle ( The Yiwu index), this case also supports the fact that China is the world's largest manufacturing country. Think about it, Americans even need to wholesale "aid supplies" to support their own candidates from China. Yiwu, Zhejiang, has become the largest small commodity distribution center in the world. We can even make a joke: a small Yiwu can "influence" the political situation of the United States.
South Korea’s Samsung Group is currently the largest foreign-invested enterprise in Vietnam, providing nearly 14% of Vietnam’s jobs and 15% of its GDP
However, in today’s European and American world, the above line may need to be changed to “Vietnamese As soon as there is a strike, Americans will have no clothes or shoes to wear." More and more "Made in Vietnam" brands are beginning to emerge. It is foreseeable that "Made in Vietnam" is becoming the "new international favorite" of .
A clothing store in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, has a plaque that reads "Made in Vietnam"
In 2018, Vietnam's total exports reached 244.7 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of nearly 13.8% over last year, plus Vietnam's seven consecutive years from 2010 to 2017 The GDP growth rate is as high as 7%, which has attracted widespread attention from the international community. Since the epidemic, China's manufacturing industry has been affected, and some international orders and even orders from domestic factories have been transferred to Vietnam, where labor costs are lower.
Vietnam map
In 2019, Vietnam's total export volume exceeded Shenzhen, Guangdong for the first time, and its GDP level in 2020 reached an all-time high of more than 271 billion US dollars, but it is still far from benchmarking Shenzhen (Shenzhen's GDP in 2020 reached more than 420 billion Dollar). In fact, it can be seen from here that Vietnam and China are not countries of the same order of magnitude . Comparing Vietnam with our country is like comparing a toddler to a strong man. In fact, the entire ASEAN Not enough to compare with China.
Friends who have been to Vietnam know that in Vietnam, an electric car will play its ultimate role.
Vietnam’s economic aggregate is currently not comparable to a provincial administrative unit in my country. Take Guangxi, which borders Vietnam, for example. Guangxi has a population of more than 51 million, while Vietnam has a population of 98 million. However, Guangxi's GDP is more than US$70 billion higher than Vietnam's. However, the "rapid development" of Vietnam's manufacturing industry is attracting the attention of the West. News that Vietnam is about to replace China as the "world's factory" is spreading like wildfire. Such news has a strong market in the Western world.
my country’s Guangxi border armed police officers intercepted a group of illegal immigrants entering the country from Vietnam
Is Vietnam becoming the “world’s factory”?
Nha Trang, Vietnam
Vietnam's economic growth has ranked first in ASEAN . In 2021, the total trade volume exceeded 600 billion US dollars for the first time, and the GDP growth rate was as high as 8.8%. Internationally renowned brands such as Nike and Adidas have set up their main Asian factories in Vietnam. Samsung, Apple, Foxconn and other electronic companies will also shift the focus of their production bases to Vietnam. The reason is simple: Vietnam’s policies are practical It’s too favorable and the labor cost is too cheap. Vietnam’s current per capita monthly salary is only less than 1,200 yuan, which is less than half of China’s on average.
South Korea’s Samsung Group is already the largest capital investor in Vietnam, so some people joked that one Samsung controls two countries, South Korea and Vietnam.
Even Li Ka-shing is optimistic about Vietnam’s development momentum. After divesting investment in the UK, he boldly announced that he would invest in Vietnam within 5 years. Investment in Vietnam’s real estate market is HK$200 billion. Since the epidemic, Vietnam has become one of the few countries in Southeast Asia and even Asia that has maintained "positive growth" like China. China has a large enough domestic market, while Vietnam relies on "international orders" flowing out of China.
Li Ka-shing withdrew his investment in Europe and instead placed heavy bets in Vietnam
The international economic division of labor is a normal manifestation. The Chinese people do not need to worry. Even if Vietnam is given a hundred "three-stars", it will not be able to have an economic size comparable to China. What we need to discuss The question is: Can Vietnam become the new "world factory"?
An electronics factory in Da Nang, Vietnam. Unlike China, female workers in Vietnam are more productive and motivated than male workers.
As a neighbor of China and both a socialist country, Vietnam’s history is very similar to that of China. Feudal society was colonized, and it took a struggle to drive away the invaders. In 1945, the Japanese army surrendered and Vietnam declared independence. France, the former suzerain country, made a comeback. It took the Vietnamese people another nine years of anti-French war to completely drive away the French colonists.
Ho Chi Minh, the independent leader of Vietnam and the founder of the Communist Party of Vietnam
The general climate of the Cold War determined the microclimate in Vietnam. In order to control Southeast Asia, the United States invaded Vietnam in 1965. After another 10 years of Vietnam War, Vietnam was able to Eventually the country was unified and gained formal independent status.
However, after independence, Vietnam relied on the support of the Soviet Union to float away. It turned around and opened fire on China, which spared no effort to support its resistance to the United States, and invaded Cambodia. . By the 1980s, with the weakening of the Soviet Union, Vietnam was almost impoverished. In 40 years, The war wiped out Vietnam's already weak financial resources. The 10-year Vietnam War cost Vietnam more than 8 million civilians, more than 2 million soldiers, and left more than 1 million orphans. Economic losses exceeded 400 billion U.S. dollars, and the entire country was in disarray.
In 1975, Saigon, Vietnam (today's Ho Chi Minh City) was liberated
In 1985, Gorbachev came to power and announced that he would reduce the Soviet Union's foreign aid. This immediately plunged Vietnam, which relied on the Soviet Union, into internal and external troubles. In 1986, Vietnam followed my country's national policy of "reform and opening up" and announced "reform and opening up", and shifted its focus to economic construction. Vietnam's policies basically "copy" China's, such as establishing a rural contract responsibility system, developing special economic zones, and developing a market economy.
In 1986, at the Sixth National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, Vietnamese leaders proposed "reform and opening up"
In the mid-to-late 1980s, Vietnam's population had reached more than 60 million, but 70% were farmers.This is a huge cheap labor market, very It soon attracted a large number of foreign capital to invest and set up factories in Vietnam. At the beginning, Vietnam basically depended on China to take over the clothing, textile, electronic assembly and other industries that were transferred from China. At that time, Vietnam had neither money nor technology, only people. Even the production lines of needed to import from my country. Our people taught them how to use it step by step.
Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam.In Vietnam, cars are rare, and most people ride electric bikes or bicycles.
From relying on the Soviet Union to relying on China for food, Vietnam has undergone a 180-degree shift. The Asian financial crisis broke out in 1997, which brought down many Southeast Asian countries. Vietnam was a blessing in disguise, taking over most of the low-end industries from Asian Tigers (Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia). Vietnam People's living standards have also gradually improved.
In 2006, Vietnam joined the WTO and focused on the electronics assembly industry. Intel, Samsung, Foxconn, Apple and other electronics conglomerates have settled in Vietnam because of its preferential policies and labor costs. At present, foreign investment accounts for about 60% of Vietnam's total domestic investment. It can be said that Vietnam is a country that relies entirely on international capital and exports.
Vietnam and the European Union signed an agreement
Vietnam's two main customers are China and the United States.China is Vietnam's largest importer. Vietnam needs to import a large amount of raw materials and equipment from my country every year, as well as introduce technology;and the United States It is Vietnam’s largest exporter. Nearly 40% of the goods produced in Vietnam are exported to the United States. What’s interesting is that China and the United States once fell in love with Vietnam.
In 2019, then US President Trump visited Vietnam
In 2021, Vietnam's exports to the United States reached US$96 billion. Although it was less than 1/5 of China, it increased by 25% year-on-year. As mentioned at the beginning, from "Made in China" to "Made in Vietnam", Americans used to be accustomed to "Made in China", but today, 20% of clothing and 30% of shoes in the United States are produced in Vietnam. But Vietnam's shortcomings are too big. Apart from low labor costs, it is almost uncompetitive. In the past, when China first opened up, it could only rely on low labor costs to open the market. But now China already has core technologies.
Most of the shoes on the feet of American teenagers are made in Vietnam.
Vietnam is going back to our "old path" of " exchanging 800 million shirts for a Boeing airliner ". It costs a lot of labor and space, but it is profitable. The money is indeed the least, because the patents and core technologies are not in Vietnam, and all the Vietnamese earn is "hard-earned money." "world factory" is almost equivalent to "sweatshop", which is not a good title.
The image of Vietnamese police in Vietnamese TV dramas
Vietnam's textile industry and electronic assembly industry are pillar industries, but Vietnam cannot even be "self-sufficient". Vietnam's current industrial chain is that receives orders from Europe and the United States, and from Japan and South Korea. China imports raw materials and technology, and then exports . Over time, most of the money is made by Europe, the United States and middlemen. Vietnam, which contributes the most, earns the least. Industries with high added value are in the hands of Europe and the United States. Vietnam, like China in the past, is at the bottom. China has climbed to the mid-range, but Vietnam still has a long way to go.
An Internet celebrity policewoman in Vietnam
Vietnam’s advantages and difficulties
Vietnam’s geographical location is very advantageous and its natural conditions are also very good. Therefore, it supports a population of nearly 100 million with a mere 330,000 square kilometers of land, plus many years of war. Baptism, Vietnam’s domestic population structure is very “young”. More than 25% of the population is young people under the age of 25, and the minimum monthly salary is only US$125. This is the most fundamental advantage of Vietnam - large number of people + cheap .
Vietnam's migrant workers are also forming.
In Southeast Asia, the only countries with lower wages than Vietnam are Cambodia, East Timor and Indonesia. Compared with these countries, Vietnam has a stable political situation and good policy continuity. Vietnam has always been a "four carriages", that is, the Party Central Committee, the Prime Minister of the Government, the President of the State, and the President of the National Assembly. The four powers coexist. Foreign companies investing in Vietnam do not have to worry about being robbed halfway, nor do they have to worry about asking for high prices.
Map of Southeast Asia
The conditions offered by the Vietnamese government are tax exemption for 4 years and halving for 10 years. Vietnam is also actively signing various free trade agreements and has trade agreements with ASEAN, the European Union, North America, China, Japan and South Korea, but Vietnam The infrastructure in Vietnam is not very good. Many Chinese people who set up factories in Vietnam will say that power outages 3-4 times a week are normal, and road repairs and repairs are also normal.
The ASEAN Expo held in Nanning, Guangxi
However, Vietnam's low labor costs and almost "losing money to make money"-style policy support have caused many foreign investors to ignore Vietnam's shortcomings and invest in setting up factories one after another. The third major advantage of Vietnam is that it is close to the sea. There are three major ports in Haiphong City, Da Nang City and Ho Chi Minh City from north to south. The transportation cost is low, and it is also convenient to purchase goods from China.
Vietnam’s three major ports
In 2018, the Trump administration launched a trade war between China and the United States, but Vietnam took advantage. Due to the surge in U.S. tariffs on China, a large number of Chinese companies or foreign-invested companies in China have bypassed Vietnam, which has extremely low tariffs, to export to the U.S., and Vietnamese customs has also let them pass with a "turn a blind eye" attitude. In recent years, many Chinese companies have also begun to set up factories in Vietnam.
Da Nang, Vietnam
In the three years since Trump took office, Sino-US trade has shrunk by about 50 billion US dollars, and Vietnam alone has eaten 8.2 billion, becoming the biggest winner. However, Vietnam's shortcomings are also obvious. Although there is a large labor force, the level of education is not high, and the average education level is less than primary school. Primary education was only universalized in Vietnam in 2000. Only 10% of people in Vietnam are engaged in mid-to-high-end management or technical industries. , the rest are basically junior labor force.
Female traffic policeman in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Although Vietnam is the country with the fastest economic growth in Southeast Asia, it is also the country with the lowest productivity. On average, it is less than 1/5 of Malaysia and about 1/3 of Thailand. The main industrial workers in Vietnam are also migrant workers who flow into the city from the countryside. Vietnam has two major economic centers, one in the south and one in the north. They are the capital Hanoi and the economic center of Ho Chi Minh City . Vietnamese people have a strong sense of region, so the labor force in the north and south is almost the same. Not flowing.
Vietnamese Migrant Workers
Excluding international large manufacturers, the survival of Vietnam's own small and medium-sized enterprises is actually worrying. Since the outbreak of the epidemic, many local Vietnamese enterprises have closed down. About 1.5 million migrant workers in Ho Chi Minh City have returned to their hometowns, never to return. Over-reliance on foreign investment has made Vietnam’s local industrial development difficult. 40% of Vietnam’s exports and 60% of its export volume are contributed by foreign investment. American and Korean companies are the largest contributors. Samsung, LG, , Microsoft are three pillars. does not revolve around Vietnam, but It is Vietnam that turns to around them.
Korean celebrity advertisements on the streets of Ho Chi Minh City. Vietnam is one of the most "Korean" countries in the world. More than 76% of young women say they are willing to marry in South Korea. 95% of enterprises in Vietnam are private enterprises and 90% are small and micro enterprises. Local enterprises in Vietnam account for the consumption of the whole society. The amount is less than 45%, which is pitifully low. The capital, technology and management cannot keep up, and it will break at a touch. Vietnam's proximity to China is both a blessing and a misfortune for them, because Vietnam does not have complete supporting facilities, and many foreign companies only set up factories in Vietnam to recruit people, but raw materials and equipment are purchased from China, making it impossible for Vietnam to develop its own production chain.
Vietnam’s unique pony
In 2021, Vietnam imported about 100 billion US dollars from China, with a deficit of more than 50 billion, and could not make any money. Therefore, Vietnam is actually just an "outsourcing workshop" for China to accept foreign investment. Although Vietnam has imitated everything from China, it cannot imitate everything. The most fundamental reason is that its level of development is insufficient and it really cannot keep up with the international division of labor.
Vietnam Police Parade
The average salary in Vietnam has increased by about 18.5%. Ho Chi Minh City ranks first in the country. The average salary has reached 3,000 yuan. This has given Vietnam a new headache, that is, the cost of labor is increasing. Southeast Asia is not without new populous countries. Laos and Cambodia are also new choices. Vietnam is not irreplaceable .
Vietnam’s rapid economic development is actually due to a low starting point, and the Vietnamese government has accumulated a lot of debt in order to promote development. In 2021, the government’s foreign debt will reach 15 billion U.S. dollars. It is still a big problem to not be able to pay it back. Such a patchwork, everywhere How can an economy with problems compete with China?
I am afraid that the only thing Vietnam can surpass China is its football level.
