In recent days, the energy crisis has worsened and swept the world. Coal, oil, natural gas, and rare metals have refreshed people’s cognition time and time again. Power cuts, oil grabs, and gas shortages are happening all over the world. European factories are facing the threat of production suspension. Lebanon has run out of energy and plunged into a national blackout. Even our country has experienced regional power cuts.
Compared with oil, natural gas and other resources, my country's coal resources are more abundant, and 70% of the country's power generation relies on coal power. So let's analyze the reasons for its skyrocketing from the perspective of coal.
1. Stagflation: A word that makes Wall Street fearful. In layman's terms, it means that prices have risen but the economy has stagnated. After the 1970s, the global practice of Keynesianism is that central banks allow excessive growth of money supply to provide the driving force for the fast-growing economy. Excessive currency issuance will inevitably cause inflation, and there is no way to smooth out this part of inflation without a qualitative improvement in science and technology. Therefore, various countries have come up with various methods to allow the currency to have a fixed reservoir. Such as US stocks, Japanese bonds, and China Real Estate.
After 2019, the national real estate policy has become the strictest in history, and real estate has gradually lost its role as a reservoir. In other words, the problem that China is facing now is that if housing prices do not rise, everything else has to rise except for the part where public ownership controls prices. Last year, pork flew to the sky. This year, all of them have risen. Coal is only one of them, and it is also the most upstream part.
2. Environmental protection: In the past few years, I have heard the words of green economy, such as carbon neutral , energy saving and emission reduction, green water and green mountains are the golden mountains and silver mountains... its purpose is two On the one hand, it must conform to international standards, integrate into international values, and bow its head in the face of global powers forcing developing countries to abandon crude and rapid development. On the other hand, environmental protection is the most advantageous excuse to step on the brakes. In fact, it is developing too fast,The think tanks deliberately step on the brakes themselves.
As a result, environmental protection has become a nightmare for major coal mining companies. When everyone meets all standards, output will naturally not go up.
3. International situation: Before this, there were seven coal state-owned enterprises in Shanxi, one of which was called the Coal Import and Export Corporation. According to industry reports at that time, the coal imported from Outer Mongolia, plus transportation costs, is not necessarily more expensive than the unearthed coal. Before the international tension, the coal of Mongolia, Australia and other countries has been an effective supplement to China.
4. The overall northward shift of China's rainfall belt: This has led to the extreme heat in summer in the south in recent years, and the early winter in the north, increasing the demand for electricity and heating. In addition, floods in the north have been frequent this year, and Shanxi and Shaanxi have experienced disasters recently, which have more or less impact on coal mining.
5. Public ownership price control: Since the nationalization and integration of Shanxi coal enterprises in 2006, coal prices are more easily controlled by the state. In addition, the price of electricity is inverted seriously, and the electricity sold by power plants is not as expensive as buying coal. Of course, this also reflects the superiority of China's socialism. China's residential electricity consumption ranks second to last among major countries in the world. Cheap things will make people use them unscrupulously, or even waste them.
How to break the game? Personally think that the following can be done:
1. Appropriately relax the real estate policy. Harbin's real estate policy has been relaxed recently, and the future must be a structural real estate policy. Vigorously developing the stock market has played a role as a reservoir. Now the framework of the Science and Technology Innovation Board, the restructuring of the ChiNext, and the Beijing Stock Exchange have been set up.The pool is also big enough, just waiting for a wave of structural bull market to attract new money into the market.
In addition, it was mentioned that real estate developers took the initiative to detonate those crazy leveraged companies, even if it caused pain, they did not hesitate to pursue accountability through HNA's model and recover related funds to minimize the losses suffered by the whole society. To make state-owned real estate companies bigger and stronger, I personally think that real estate is bad enough at the moment, so let them do socialist public ownership reforms. In the future, local governments and real estate developers will be grasshoppers on the ropes, so they can do more prices. Control. It may even turn to the "Singapore real estate model" in the future.
2. Appropriately relax the control of coal enterprises. Especially the upstream and downstream of coal mining can be put to the market. You must know that pigs are market-oriented, so pork soared last year. This year, the market can push the price of pigs to the bottom. I guess now that the domestic large-scale coal enterprises merge, it is necessary to make preparations in this regard.
3. Global sweeping goods to buy energy. Especially brothers from the Third World, I will build railways and build buildings for you. It is time to give back to the Chinese people. The mineral resources are dug up and shipped back to the land of China one by one.
4. There is a policy tilt towards major coal provinces. The people of Shanxi have always been circulating that their province is "not something". Because there is no Shanxi in the east and west development policies, and the recent rise of individualization in the central provinces, such as Hefei's new energy, Wuhan's Optics Valley, Zhengzhou's innovation and entrepreneurship policies, etc., there is no Shanxi in it. Especially during the period of power cuts, Shanxi must ensure that the 14 provinces have enough electricity. Some netizens said directly on Weibo that Shanxi is "burning itself and illuminating others."
5. Increase the electricity price appropriately. In addition to relative subsidies for high-tech enterprises and special poverty areas,Electricity prices can be increased in other regions.
Actually, I want to add one more: develops new energy. Natural gas and oil are not our country’s main resources. Relying on them will always get stuck. In addition, nuclear power must rely on uranium from the perspective of raw materials. The external dependence of uranium mine is as high as 85.7%, which is the same as natural gas. It is still locked. Therefore, China is destined to be inevitable and can only develop photovoltaics, wind power, and hydropower.
However, coal has skyrocketed recently, and I have never seen the price that our country cannot control. Could it be that the think tanks still rise by it. You must know that when the price of coal power exceeds that of new energy, the market will use new energy spontaneously. Then, by building a green electricity market trading mechanism, the price advantage of new energy is reflected, and the problem of the cost side of the launch point is solved.
In short, we can no longer burn China itself, leave the pollution to ourselves, and give all the benefits to the American imperialism.
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