Researchers predict that animals such as the arctic fox, stoat and common shrew will be disproportionately affected by climate change.
A new study investigates which animals are best able to survive climate change.
As average global temperatures rise, extreme weather events such as prolonged droughts and torrential downpours are becoming more frequent and will only get worse in the coming decades. What will happen to Earth's ecosystems?
"This is the big question and the context of our study," said biologist John Jackson. Jackson and his fellow biologists Christie Le Coeur of the University of Oslo and Owen Jones of the University of Southern Denmark recently published a new study in the journal eLife.
John Jackson is currently studying at the University of Oxford, but was studying at the University of Southern Denmark. Owen Jones is an associate professor at the Department of Biology at the University of Southern Denmark.
camels, moose and elephants
In the study, the scientists compared weather and climate data at the time the animal data were collected with data on population changes for 157 mammal species around the world. They collected data for 10 years or more for each species.
Their analysis gave them insight into how animal species populations respond to extreme weather: Do their numbers increase or decrease? How did the number of their offspring change?
"We can see a clear pattern: When extreme weather strikes, animals that live long and have few offspring are less vulnerable than animals that live short and have many offspring. Examples are llamas , long-lived bats and elephants and mice, possums and rare marsupials like the woylie," Owen Jones said.
Less affected by extreme weather
Research finds that African elephants , Siberian tigers , chimpanzees, great horseshoe bats , llamas, llamas , white rhinos , grizzly bears, American bison , Klipspringer's and Schreibers' bats are less affected by extreme weather.
are more affected by extreme weather
Scientists have found that Azara grass rats, olive grass rats, elegant fat-tailed possums, Canadian lemmings, tundra voles, arctic foxes, white shrews, common shrews, fern Erie and Arctic ground squirrels are more affected by extreme weather.
Rapid Decline - But There Are Rapid Booms
Large, long-lived animals are better able to cope with conditions such as prolonged drought; their ability to survive, reproduce and raise offspring is not affected to the same extent as smaller, short-lived animals. For example, they could invest their energy into one offspring, or simply wait for a good time when conditions become challenging.
Small, short-lived rodents, on the other hand, have more extreme population changes over short periods of time. For example, in the event of a prolonged drought, much of their food base may disappear more quickly: insects, flowers, and fruits, and they will simply starve due to limited fat reserves.
When conditions improve, populations of these small mammals may also flourish to take advantage, as they can produce many offspring compared to larger mammals.
Risk of extinction is not the same as risk of extinction
"These small mammals respond quickly to extreme weather, and in both directions. Therefore, their vulnerability to extreme weather should not be equated to a risk of extinction," said John Jackson.
He also reminds us that an animal species' ability to withstand climate change must not stand alone when assessing their vulnerability to extinction:
"Habitat destruction, poaching, pollution and invasive species are factors that threaten many animal species - Even bigger than climate change in many cases,” he stressed.
Animals we don’t know much about
The researchers’ study not only provides insight into how these 157 specific mammal species respond to climate change in the here and now. The research also helps to better understand how Earth's animals will respond to ongoing climate change.
"We expect climate change to bring more extreme weather in the future. Animals will need to cope with this extreme weather as usual.Our analysis therefore helps predict how different animal species will respond to future climate change based on their general characteristics - even if we have limited data on their populations," said Owen Jones.
One example is the woylie, a rare Australian species Marsupial. Biologists know very little about this species, but because of its similar lifestyle to mice—that is, it is small, short-lived, and reproduces rapidly— It can be predicted to respond to extreme weather in a similar way to mice
Whole ecosystems will change
"In the same way, there are a lot of animal species that we don't know much about, but we can now predict their reactions," John Jackson explains
In this way, the researchers expected not to The ability of animal species to adapt to climate change is related to their life strategies, which can help us predict ecological change:
As climate change causes changes in habitat suitability, species may be forced to move to new areas as old areas become inhospitable . These changes depend on the life strategies of the species and can have significant impacts on ecosystem functioning
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