Today A shares had another darkest day. The reason still cannot be circumvented US stocks . The US stock market was close to a circuit breaker last Friday night. When A shares opened, US stock index futures were close to a circuit breaker again. It was really difficult for A shares.
The main reason for the decline in US stocks is that the Republicans and Democrats are at odds again. According to US media CNN, on the evening of March 22, local time, the third round of emergency economic aid plan proposed by the US Republican Party failed to pass the Senate procedural vote, delaying the rescue schedule for the US economy. I mentioned the specific content of this emergency plan in yesterday's article. The overall scale exceeds US$1.8 trillion, including cash distributions to American taxpayers, emergency assistance to businesses, etc. However, the Democrats have previously publicly expressed their disagreement with the plan, while the Republicans still insist on pushing for procedural votes. House of Representatives Speaker Pelosi said that if there is still no agreement with the Republicans, House Democrats will introduce their own version. As the two sides failed to reach an agreement, all three major stock index futures fell sharply and hit the downside limit. After all, A-shares were unable to withstand the attacks from U.S. stocks and U.S. index futures, and were defeated again.
The three major indexes collectively opened sharply lower in early trading today. The weak rebound in the morning failed. In the afternoon, the market weakened again, with the main board falling 3.11% and the ChiNext falling 4.6%. Market sentiment plummeted rapidly. The number of and stocks with their lower limit reached nearly 160, while the number of and stocks with their daily limit shrank to around 40. In the theme section, several old themes such as 5G, epidemic, and agriculture are still being tossed around again and again, but the intensity has been greatly weakened. The money-making effect of is very poor, while is very poor. As of today, the Shanghai Composite has fallen 13% from its rebound high. The independent market seems to be increasingly unsustainable, but I still maintain the logic of this week’s rebound unchanged!
First of all, regarding the emergency economic aid plan, it will still be passed in the future. Even if Trump 's aid plan does not pass, the Democratic Party's aid plan will not be worse than Trump's aid plan. Because both parties need to please voters in the election year, in this almost decisive battle, in addition to creating obstacles for each other, how to please voters is the top priority. In fact, this temporary expedient of excessively pleasing voters is detrimental to the long-term and stable development of society and people's livelihood. It will overburden the welfare of the entire society, make the people overly dependent on the government and become lazy, and eventually a social crisis like Greece will break out. In addition, it is difficult for the government to have sufficient resources and financial resources to implement the country's long-term strategy. This is a big drawback of Western democratic systems. An aid package should be rolled out soon to help calm people's panic.
In addition, as I mentioned yesterday, as European and American countries attach great importance to the epidemic, the epidemic should be basically under control in about two weeks. The latest news is that the growth rate of new cases in South Korea, Iran, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Germany has begun to turn around. As the number of tests in the United States increases in the short term, the short-term growth rate will be amplified, but a slowdown in a week or so will be a high probability event. The bailout plan is constantly being upgraded, and the panic effect caused by the epidemic is diminishing. This is my main logic for maintaining that U.S. stocks and A-shares will usher in a small rebound this week. As of the time of publication, U.S. stocks had fallen slightly at the opening.
In terms of operation, we maintain yesterday's suggestion. Positions should not be heavy. If stocks fall, you can boldly buy low the stocks you hold. If stocks rise, you should sell them in time. Do T+0 to reduce the cost of holding shares. The profit-making effect has been very poor recently, so try to open new positions as little as possible. If you are not in the right rhythm, it is best not to do it. After all, you will not lose money if you miss it, but you may suffer big losses if you make a mistake.
Please pay attention to my logic and do not rely on my judgment results. If my logic is correct, the result will naturally be correct. If my logic is wrong, please forgive me. I will correct my logic in a timely manner. The basis for personal analysis and judgment is based on public information and is for reference only. Life is a practice, and investment is the best training ground for practice! I am a logic brother who practices investment, and I look forward to your friends’ exchanges and corrections!
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