4 On 8th, the domestic steel market was mixed, with strong and weak market conditions. Among 25 major cities, the price of rebar in 14 cities including Jinan, Fuzhou, Wuhan, Beijing, and Shenyang fell by 20-130 yuan/ton, and only 2 cities, Changsha and Chengdu, increased by 20 yuan/ton; hot coil prices in 7 cities, including Shanghai, Fuzhou, Tianjin, and Shenyang, increased by 20-80 yuan/ton, and only 3 cities, Hefei, Shijiazhuang, and Urumqi, fell by 20-50 yuan/ton.
htmlOn the 18th, four domestic construction steel pipe manufacturers lowered their ex-factory prices by 50-100 yuan/ton.
▼ Steel spot market
Construction steel: On April 8, the average price of HRB400 (20mm) rebar in 25 major cities across the country was 3,865 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pressure on building materials inventories has eased significantly, but unfortunately procurement has not yet recovered after the Qingming Festival. Transaction performance is tepid, and merchants are mainly cautious about shipments. Judging from the inventory digestion last week, market demand has been reflected, and the steel market is expected to maintain a volatile and consolidated pattern.
Hot-rolled coils: On April 8, the price of 4.75mm hot-rolled coils in 24 markets across the country was reported at 3,976 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Today, the market continued a volatile and strong trend, and merchants' quotations rose steadily and slightly. However, market demand was relatively average, and the overall transaction volume was weak. At present, the market inventory resources are relatively low, and merchants have little sales pressure. According to statistics from this website, the national hot-rolled inventory this week was 2.5934 million tons, a decrease of 144,000 tons. It is expected that the hot-rolled market price will fluctuate tomorrow.
Cold-rolled coils: On April 8, the average price of 1.0mm cold-rolled coils in 24 major cities across the country was 4,582 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from the previous transaction price. The market opened after the holiday, and the overall sales atmosphere in the market was average. Merchants moved in and out of new goods quickly, and terminals maintained the rhythm of purchasing as they were used. Weak factors such as slow inventory decline and lack of merchant confidence still suppress prices, and prices may consolidate in the short term.
Medium and heavy plates: On April 8, the average price of medium and thick plates in 24 major cities across the country was 4,183 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Recently, northern steel mills have basically maintained stable unit prices, and their willingness to raise prices is very strong. From a market perspective, the overall transaction situation is relatively average, and most merchants still focus on shipments. At present, some market resources are very tight, and ordinary plates are starting to be out of stock. It is expected that the average price of medium and heavy plates will mainly consolidate in a narrow range in the short term.
▼ Raw material spot market
Imported ore: On April 8, Jingtang Port 61.5% Australian fine ore was quoted at 450 yuan/ton, a price drop of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Iron ore failed to improve on the first day after the holiday, continuing the weak trend before the holiday. Steel mills are still in a wait-and-see mode, with no sign of inventory buildup except for rigid replenishment. Today's inquiries are mainly based on testing prices, and the prices are obviously suppressed. Considering that this is the first working day after the holiday, most traders who are optimistic about the market outlook are generally willing to sell at high prices. The game between buyers and sellers means that the ore price may be weak and stable tomorrow.
Coke: On the 28th, the spot price of the domestic coke market was mainly weak and stable. The successive resumption of production of blast furnaces in steel plants has not brought about a significant increase in demand for coke. However, coke companies have no profit base and are currently more willing to raise prices. Coke inventories have fallen slightly and are still relatively high overall. It is expected that there will be greater resistance to the continued downward trend of coke. The current mainstream transaction price of secondary metallurgical coke in the coke market in Shanxi is 1,550-1,600 yuan/ton; the ex-factory price of secondary metallurgical coke in Handan, Hebei is 1,610-1,660 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of secondary coke in Wuhai is 1,380-1,430 yuan/ton; the current mainstream transaction price of secondary metallurgical coke in the coke market in East China is 1,700-1,750 yuan/ton, all ex-factory prices including tax.
Scrap steel: html On the 28th, the national scrap steel market rose steadily, with average transactions.The price of heavy waste in Jiangsu remains at 2,220-2,330 yuan/ton; the price of heavy waste in Shandong is 2,150-2,210 yuan/ton. The transaction price of heavy waste in the Fujian market including tax is 2,300-2,350 yuan/ton. The price of heavy waste including tax in Hubei is basically 1890-1960 yuan/ton. Heavy waste in Shanxi includes tax of 2130-2240 yuan/ton. The price of heavy waste including tax in Hebei is 2,410-2,460 yuan/ton. The above are all factory prices including tax.
▼ Steel market forecast
Macroscopic view: On April 4, 2018, the U.S. government released a list of goods subject to additional tariffs. It will impose an additional 25% tariff on 1,333 items worth US$50 billion worth of goods exported to the United States. On April 4, China imposed an additional 25% tariff on 106 items in 14 categories including soybeans, automobiles, and chemicals originating in the United States. On April 5, US President Trump issued a statement to consider whether it would be appropriate to impose additional tariffs on an additional $100 billion of goods imported from China. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that if the United States announces a list of newly taxed products, China will immediately launch a vigorous counterattack.
Supply side: This week, Mysteel surveyed 163 steel mills with a blast furnace utilization rate of 79.45%, an increase of 0.04% month-on-month. Some blast furnaces in Hebei Province delayed the resumption of production due to production restrictions, but the blast furnaces in the early stage were operating normally, and molten iron production increased significantly. However, this week, the rebar production capacity utilization rate of 139 steel mills across the country decreased by 1.47% to 66.87%, and the wire rod capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.54% to 60.12%. Steel prices continued to fall in March, resulting in steel mill profits shrinking, and some companies inhibited the release of production capacity. Considering that the current gross profit of steel mills is still considerable, it is expected that steel production will be difficult to decline further in the future.
Demand side: According to the monitoring of MySteel.net, since March 27, the daily trading volume of building materials among mainstream traders across the country has reached more than 200,000 tons, while the average daily trading volume of building materials in the first and middle of March was only about 140,000 tons, indicating that downstream demand has picked up significantly in the past two weeks.
According to the latest monitoring from MySteel.net, the national steel social inventory this week was 16.802 million tons, a decrease of 6.5% week-on-week, a decline for four consecutive weeks, and an increase of 19% over the same period last year. During the same period, the inventory of sample steel mills was 6.263 million tons, a decrease of 9.5% week-on-week and an increase of 5.1% over the same period last year. In the past two weeks, transactions in the steel spot market have increased significantly, driving steel inventories to decline rapidly and easing operating pressure on manufacturers. However, as the Sino-US trade war heats up, the steel market is still under pressure from high production and inventory, and the market mentality remains cautious, steel prices may rise amid repeated fluctuations in the later period.
Disclaimer: Mysteel strives to use accurate information and objective and fair content and opinions described in the information, but does not guarantee whether necessary changes are necessary. The information provided by Mysteel is for customer decision-making reference only and does not constitute direct advice for customers to make decisions. Customers should not use it to replace their own independent judgment. Any decision made by the customer has nothing to do with Mysteel.
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