The last oil price adjustment this year will start at 24:00 on December 19, and there is only one working day left. Therefore, this round of refined oil pricing cycle has entered the final stage. Referring to the expected reduction in oil prices, domestic retail price limits for gasoline and diesel will soon usher in a sharp drop, completing the tenth lowering of the year. The prices of gasoline and gasoline No. 92 and gasoline No. 95 will fall again. At that time, my country's gasoline and diesel prices will show a new situation of "thirteen rises, ten falls and one stranded". The cost of car owners and friends filling a box of gasoline is significantly reduced. In other words, consumers are patient and don’t make a comeback on weekends, and it’s cheaper to use oil after the price adjustment.
According to the forecast of relevant institutions, as of December 16, the domestic pricing cycle corresponds to the 9th working day, the average price of reference crude oil varieties is US$76.76 per barrel, and the crude oil change rate is -6.85%, which is obviously fully in line with the basic standards of a sharp drop. It is expected that the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be 460 yuan/ton. Of course, some authoritative institutions also believe that the cumulative decline in oil prices is 475 yuan/ton. According to the consistent conservative rules of price adjustment, it is more likely to be a decrease of 460 yuan/ton. If it is the 10th working day, it is another matter. Referring to the latest oil price forecast, which is converted into liters of price, the decline in my country's gasoline and diesel prices is 0.35 yuan/liter-0.43 yuan/liter, which is not very big from the previous price adjustment decline. If you take a small sedan with a fuel tank capacity of 50 liters as an example, the owner can spend about 17.5 yuan to 21 yuan less when filling a box of gasoline. Therefore, it is cheaper to refuel after the price adjustment tomorrow night.
Secondly, with the current round of oil prices, it is coming to an end, and there is only one day left tomorrow. It is initially expected that the cumulative decline has reached 460 yuan/ton, and the international oil price closed on Saturday fell by more than 2.39%. Referring to the concept that international oil prices are an important weather vane for my country's refined oil price adjustment, it is estimated that the decline in oil prices will further deepen tomorrow. Therefore, it is a foregone conclusion that this round of refined oil price adjustment will show a sharp drop. In addition, in the first two oil price adjustments, domestic oil prices have achieved "two consecutive declines", with a cumulative oil price lowered by 615 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a price increase of about 50 cents/liter. This fully shows that oil prices will usher in "three consecutive declines" in the evening, and the prices of No. 92 gasoline and No. 95 gasoline that most people care about continue to decline.
In the overseas market, international oil prices fell first and then stabilized during this round of pricing cycle, and the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil performed more outstandingly. From December 6 to December 9, international oil prices fell one after another, and WTI crude oil fell from US$77.55, hitting US$70.08 during the trading session on December 9, setting a new low this year. On December 10, WTI crude oil gradually climbed and returned to US$77.42 on December 14. As of December 17, WTI crude oil futures closed down 2.39% at $74.29 per barrel, up 4.6% this week.
The main reason is that OPEC + (OPEC+) maintains its production policy and does not increase production cuts. In addition, the market is worried about weak oil demand, which has led to crude oil falling closer to the key support position of US$70/barrel many times after the decline. In the later period, although risk sentiment preferences such as unexpected interruption of the US-Canada oil pipeline led to a continuous recovery of oil prices, it did not change the crude oil change rate continued to operate within the negative range. What is particularly important is that the market's concerns about demand continue, resulting in limited rebound and rise in international crude oil prices in the short term. Finally, investors weighed the possible impact of subsequent measures to raise interest rates on the market at the macro level. Under the expectations of economic recession and turning point, concerns about recession risk gained the upper hand.
To sum up, the last oil price adjustment this year is about to begin, the specific time is 24:00 on December 19. Since the reference crude oil change rate of price adjustment during this round of pricing cycle continues to run within the negative range and fully meets the standards of a sharp drop, the current latest oil price is expected to be lowered by 460 yuan/ton, laying the foundation for this round of refined oil price adjustment. It is expected that refueling will be cheaper after the price adjustment tomorrow night. After all, the price of No. 92 gasoline has been significantly lowered.
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