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Polaris Power Network learned that the Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Zhejiang Provincial Energy Bureau recently issued the "Notice on Issuing the 2020 Zhejiang Provincial Electric Power Balance Plan". The notice stated that the overall judgment in 2020 is that the peak power balance will be tighter this summer, and there is a certain gap in the power balance. In the event of extreme weather, there may be a periodic power supply and demand gap.
Taking into account the electricity supply and consumption situation in the first quarter, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole province will increase by 0%-1.5% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will be 470.6-477.7 billion kilowatt hours. According to predictions, the total electricity consumption in Zhejiang Province in 2020 is expected to increase by 0-7.1 billion kilowatt hours compared with 2019. Comprehensive balance, when the province's electricity consumption increases by 1.5% in 2020, the province will have an electricity shortage of approximately 9.1 billion kilowatt hours; when electricity consumption increases by 0%, there will be an electricity shortage of approximately 2 billion kilowatt hours, which needs to be solved by corresponding measures such as increasing the unified deployment of coal-fired power generation, temporary outsourcing of electricity, or additional natural gas generation.
In 2020, it is temporarily arranged to coordinate the power generation of 231.7 billion kilowatt hours. Among them: 191.1 billion kilowatt-hours are temporarily allocated for coal-fired units, which will be adjusted in due course based on the status of the separate coal use policy for relevant projects, the completion of coal control tasks, and the province's power supply and demand. Natural gas units are 15-20 billion kilowatt-hours, and hydropower and nuclear power units are 325.6 billion kilowatt-hours.
market-oriented electricity. The coal quantity corresponding to the electricity generated by ordinary direct transactions, electricity sales market transactions and spot market transactions will be included in the unified power generation coal control. The specific electricity quantity and coal quantity of each plant will be adjusted based on the actual clearance results. The unimplemented market-based transaction incentive power in 2019 will be transferred to 2020 and included in the management of power generation plans.
Details are as follows:
Provincial Development and Reform Commission Notice of the Provincial Energy Bureau on Issuing the 2020 Zhejiang Electric Power Balance Plan
Zhejiang Development and Reform Energy [2020] No. 115
Municipal Development and Reform Commission (Energy Bureau), State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Co., Ltd., Provincial Energy Group, Huaneng Zhejiang Branch, Datang Zhejiang Branch, Huadian Zhejiang Branch, Guodian Zhejiang Branch, Guohua Zhejiang Jiang Branch, State Power Investment Corporation Zhejiang Branch, China Resources Power Southeast Region, Puxing Clean Energy Co., Ltd.:
In order to ensure the province's power security and coal control in 2020, and based on the province's economic and social development expectations, our committee (bureau) prepared the "2020 Zhejiang Province Electric Power Balance Plan" and submitted it to the provincial government for review and approval at a special meeting of the provincial government. It is hereby issued for your implementation.
Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission
Zhejiang Provincial Energy Bureau
May 7, 2020
2020 Zhejiang Province Electric Power Balance Plan
In 2019, under the strong leadership of the Provincial Party Committee and Provincial Government, the province's power supply has overcome adverse impacts such as Typhoon "Lekima", the supply and demand situation is generally stable, and the power structure continues to be optimized. The province's total social electricity consumption was 470.6 billion kilowatt hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.82%; the maximum load was 85.17 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%; the unified coal consumption for power generation was 76.54 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 8.02%. 2020 is the final year for our province to build a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way at a high level and the 13th Five-Year Plan. In order to strengthen the province's power supply guarantee and serve to support high-quality economic and social development, the province's power balance plan for 2020 is now arranged as follows:
1. Power balance situation in 2020
In 2020, there will be many opportunities and challenges affecting the balance of power supply and demand in Zhejiang. From the perspective of power demand, the general tone of the country's work of seeking progress while maintaining stability is firm and clear. The policy effects of counter-cyclical controls such as epidemic prevention and control will be released at an accelerated pace, and new driving forces such as Zhoushan Petrochemical are still sufficient. However, due to the continued impact of epidemic prevention and control and the uncertainties in the external market, there are still many uncertainties in the external market. The overall growth of power demand will show a trend of first declining and then rising. From the perspective of power supply, the implementation of purchased power resources this year is good. However, there are insufficient new installed capacity in the province and the influence of coal intensity constraints. The power generation of coal-fired units in the province and the Yangtze River Delta is expected to be significantly limited. The overall judgment is that the peak power balance will be tighter this summer, and there will be a certain gap in the power balance. In the event of extreme weather, there may be a periodic power supply and demand gap.
(1) Electricity demand forecast
Zhejiang’s GDP will actually grow by approximately 6.8% in 2019, and electricity consumption will increase by 3.82%.This year, the GDP growth target of our province is 6%-6.5%. Under normal climate conditions, combined with the power supply and consumption situation in the first quarter, it is expected that the electricity consumption of the whole province will increase by 0%-1.5% year-on-year, and the electricity consumption of the whole society will be 470.6-477.7 billion kilowatt-hours. The maximum load of the whole society was about 91 million kilowatts, an increase of 6.9%; the maximum load of the unified adjustment was about 80 million kilowatts, an increase of 7.2%.
(II) Coal control situation
According to the overall coal control situation in the province, in 2020, coal for power generation will be controlled at 74 million tons, and the corresponding electricity will be included in the annual balance, and the coal indicators and power generation capacity will be adjusted accordingly. According to the calorific value of 5150 kcal of electric coal , and the average coal consumption of 285 grams/kWh of power generation by the provincial unified coal-fired coal unit in 2019, the power generation capacity of coal-fired coal units in the province can be 191.1 billion kWh. Before the separate coal use policy for relevant projects has been implemented, the implementation progress of the coal-fired power generation plan will be adjusted according to the total amount of 72 million tons of electric coal.
(III) Electricity supply capacity
1. Power generation capacity within the province. As of the end of 2019, the province's unified power generation installed capacity was 62.21 million kilowatts. This year, the province's net increase and unified power installed capacity will be 1.18 million kilowatts, reaching 63.39 million kilowatts by the end of 2020. The newly added installed capacity is mainly 2×660,000 kilowatts of Zhejiang Neng Zhenhai Power Plant renovation and expansion project and a small amount of wind power, photovoltaics, etc.; the shutdown of installed capacity is mainly 430,000 kilowatts of Zhejiang Neng Zhenhai Power Plant 5# and 6# machines and 135,000 kilowatts of Guohua Zhoushan Power Plant 2# machines. Taking into account factors such as natural gas supply capacity, generator set output constraints, planned maintenance, and power grid backup, it is estimated that the province's unified power supply capacity will be between 39.09-49.06 million kilowatts in each month of 2020, and the non-unified power supply capacity will be between 5 million and 11 million kilowatts.
2. Purchase electricity from outside. In 2020, the province's largest foreign power capacity was 31 million kilowatts, and the annual agreement of purchases of 160.5 billion kilowatt-hours has been implemented, a decrease of 4 billion kilowatt-hours from the actual purchases of last year. Since Zhundong DC has added about 2 million kilowatts of electricity to our province in summer, Ningdong Coal and Electricity will be fully commercially operated this year, and the peak summer output of foreign power is expected to be about 1.7 million kilowatts higher than in 2019.
(IV) Power balance
1. The power balance is tense in summer and winter. Coordinate the power supply capacity inside and outside the province in 2020. The power supply in the first quarter was relatively loose due to the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, but the power balance was tight in summer and winter. The total social power supply capacity throughout the year was between 69.66 and 91.06 million kilowatts. The maximum power supply capacity in July and August in summer is 91.06 million kilowatts, and there is basically no surplus in the power balance. If extreme weather or ultra-high voltage failure occurs, there will be a gap in power supply and demand; in December, the power supply and demand balance is only 1.35 million kilowatts, and the power supply and demand in winter is also relatively tight.
2. There is a gap in battery balance. According to forecasts, the electricity consumption of our province in the whole society is expected to increase by 0-7.1 billion kilowatt-hours in 2020 compared with 2019. Due to the control of power coal, the power generation of coal-fired units is arranged at 191.1 billion kWh, a decrease of 6.4 billion kWh from 2019; the annual agreement is arranged at 160.5 billion kWh, a decrease of 4 billion kWh from the actual purchase in 2019; the Sanmen Nuclear Power 2# unit is resumed, and the power generation of hydropower and nuclear power is arranged at 25.6 billion kWh, an increase of 8.2 billion kWh from the actual in 2019; the unified wind power and photovoltaics are temporarily participating in the balance; considering that there is a lot of water in 2019, the power generation of local power plants in 2020 is arranged at 59.7 billion kWh, a decrease of 3.2 billion kWh from 2019; the power generation of natural gas units in the province is arranged at 15-20 billion kWh, a temporary increase of 15 billion kWh, a decrease of 700 million kWh from 2019.
comprehensive balance. With the province's electricity consumption increasing by 1.5% in 2020, there is a power gap of about 9.1 billion kWh in the province; with the electricity consumption increasing by 0%, there is a power gap of about 2 billion kWh, and measures such as adding unified coal-controlled machines to generate power, temporary purchase of electricity or additional natural gas generation will be solved.
2. 2020 electricity supply plan
(I) Outbound power purchase plan
2020 arrangement annual agreement purchase of electricity is 160.5 billion kWh, a decrease of 4 billion kWh from 2019; annual medium and short-term bilateral transaction electricity will be arranged by the Provincial Power Company in accordance with the needs of ensuring the province's power supply and grid safety. The details are as follows:
1. National plan. The plan is to arrange the power generation of unified nuclear power units of the Three Gorges, Xiluodu and East China to generate 68.3 billion kilowatt-hours, which is basically the same as in 2019.Among them: 32.6 billion kilowatt-hours of cross-provincial and cross-regional hydropower and 35.7 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity distributed by Qinshan Nuclear Power Station in East China.
2． intergovernmental agreement. Arrangements are made for Ningdong to send 89.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity to Zhejiang coal-fired power units, Sichuan hydropower, Fujian and Jiquan DC (including power aid to Xinjiang), an increase of about 5.6 billion kilowatt-hours over the 2019 plan. Among them: Ningdong-Zhejiang Coal-fired Power Base (Lingshao DC) 35-40 billion kWh (including about 4.5 billion kWh of renewable energy), Anhui-East Power Transmission Unit 31.5 billion kWh, Jiquan DC 11.1 billion kWh (including 3.8 billion kWh of electricity supplied to Xinjiang), and Sichuan hydropower 6.6 billion kWh.
3. Regional power grid peak regulation frequency regulation power. In East China, the power of the Xin'an River , Fuchun River Hydropower Station and Xianju, Tongbai and Tianhuangping pumped storage power stations was 3.1 billion kilowatt-hours, basically the same as in 2019.
Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, if the growth rate of electricity consumption is less than expected or the water supply is relatively abundant, in order to do a good job in the province's "six stability" and "six guarantees", ensure the basic production and operation of coal-fired units in the province, and stabilize the "14th Five-Year Plan" thermal coal control expectations, the annual outsourced electric power plates and intergovernmental agreement arrangements will be adjusted in a timely manner on a rolling basis. Provincial electric power companies are requested to arrange bilateral power transactions in a scientific and orderly manner, and coordinate and balance external power and monthly planning arrangements for domestic units based on monthly power consumption growth to ensure that the province's coal-fired power generation quotas for coal-fired units are fully used, maintain stable production and operation of units in the province, and ensure the balance of power and electricity in the province.
(2) Provincial unified power generation plan
In 2020, 231.7 billion kilowatt-hours of power will be temporarily arranged for unified power generation. Among them: 191.1 billion kilowatt-hours are temporarily allocated for coal-fired units, which will be adjusted in due course based on the efforts to obtain separate coal-use policies for relevant projects, the completion of coal control tasks, and the province's power supply and demand. Natural gas units are 15-20 billion kilowatt-hours, and hydropower and nuclear power units are 25.6 billion kilowatt-hours.
1. Coal-fired unit power generation plan and thermal coal indicator
(1) basic power generation utilization hours. The coal-fired units put into operation before the end of 2019 will have a basic power generation utilization of 3,300 hours. According to the requirements of the "Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration on Issuing Supporting Documents for the Reform of the Electric Power System" (Fagaijingti [2015] No. 2752), the newly put into operation Zhenhai Power Plant relocation and reconstruction project will no longer issue a power generation plan.
(2) Market-oriented electricity. The coal quantity corresponding to the electricity generated by ordinary direct transactions, electricity sales market transactions and spot market transactions will be included in the unified power generation coal control. The specific electricity quantity and coal quantity of each plant will be adjusted based on the actual clearance results. The unimplemented market-based transaction incentive power in 2019 will be transferred to 2020 and included in the management of power generation plans.
(3) Assessment of rewards and punishments. Coal-fired units that excel in the power operation assessment in 2019 will be rewarded with 100 hours of annual power generation utilization hours; those that fail the assessment will have 100 hours of annual power generation utilization hours deducted. Generating units participating in the direct transaction in 2020 will be rewarded with power generation plans in proportion and included in the annual power generation plan management. In 2019, the assessment power of coal-fired units to meet ultra-low flue gas emission standards will be included in the annual power generation plan management. For units that have not completed deep peak-shaving transformation, 100 hours of annual power generation utilization will be deducted based on the annual average capacity.
(4) thermal coal indicator. Based on the standard coal consumption of each unified coal-fired power plant for power generation in 2019, the annual power generation plan and the calorific value limit of raw coal entering the furnace of 5150 kcal/kg, the raw coal indicators of each power plant were issued. The annual power generation plans of power plants such as Zheneng Binhai Power Plant, Juhua Power Plant and Formosa Plastics Power Plant are reduced based on the unified power coal reduction ratio. The coal consumption indicators for power generation are calculated and determined based on the calorific value limit of 5150 kcal/kg.
(5) replaces the generated electricity. In order to improve energy utilization efficiency, the provincial unified regulation of coal-fired units is encouraged to replace small ones with large units within the province. The parameters of the replacing unit shall not be lower than supercritical, and shall not be lower than the parameters of the unit being replaced. The power generation plan and coal consumption indicators for power generation of both parties to the transaction shall be adjusted simultaneously.
2． The natural gas unit power generation plan
arranges for natural gas unit power generation to be 15-20 billion kilowatt hours in 2020. Among them: 15 billion kilowatt-hours are for the grid peak shaving power generation plan, which is arranged and issued in advance according to the peak power generation needs of the grid. The remaining 5 billion kilowatt-hours of gas and television coal control situation, gas and electricity price guidance, and the growth of electricity demand in the province will be arranged separately.
3． The nuclear power generation plan
is based on production and operation needs, and nuclear power generation capacity is scheduled to be approximately 22.6 billion kilowatt hours throughout the year.
4. The hydropower unit power generation plan
refers to the average incoming water power capacity in the past five years, and is determined to be issued based on the 70% incoming water frequency. The hydropower generation capacity is about 3 billion kilowatt-hours throughout the year. Detailed water is used.
5. To promote the adjustment of the power structure, the coal-fired unit shall be shut down and reserved for 5,000 hours. The power generation plan indicators are retained and bidding will be organized monthly, and the bidding winning companies will implement alternative power generation, and the coal indicators for power generation for the winning companies will be added accordingly.
(III) Wind power, photovoltaic and local power plants power generation plan
By the end of 2019, the total installed capacity of wind power, photovoltaic and local power plants is 26.71 million kilowatts, and the planned power capacity is 63.7 billion kilowatt hours.
1. Wind power, solar photovoltaic power generation and local hydropower units are calculated based on the average annual power generation utilization hours, and are fully consumed according to the actual power generation.
2. Local natural gas units will arrange annual power generation plans according to the two-part electricity price plan.
3. Local coal-fired cogeneration units will arrange power generation plans according to the level of 2017, and the specifics will be determined and decomposed by each city based on the coal control arrangements.
4. Pure waste heat generator sets and garbage (sludge) incineration power plants generate power on demand, and include the power balance in 6,500 hours, and other comprehensive utilization power plants issue power in 6,000 hours.
Copy: National Development and Reform Commission, National Energy Administration, State Grid East China Branch, Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, Zhejiang Energy Power Co., Ltd., each unified power plant, Huai Zhejiang Coal Power Fengtai Power Generation Branch, Anhui Huainan Pingwei Power Generation Co., Ltd. , Ningxia Yinxing Power Generation Co., Ltd., Ningxia Zaoquan Power Generation Co., Ltd. , Shenhua Guohua Ningdong Power Generation Co., Ltd., Guodian Zhejiang Energy Ningdong Power Generation Co., Ltd., Shenhua Guoneng Ningxia Yuanyanghu Power Generation Co., Ltd., Huaneng Ningxia Dam Power Plant Phase IV Power Generation Co., Ltd., Provincial Natural Gas Company, Fuxing Fuel Co., Ltd.
Zhejiang Provincial Development and Reform Commission Office issued
Disclaimer on May 7, 2020: The above content is reprinted from Polaris Electric Power News Network, and the content posted does not represent the position of this platform.
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