Domestic oil prices ushered in the "third fall" this year as scheduled, with a "second consecutive decline" for the first time. According to the information of the National Development and Reform Commission of , according to the recent changes in the international market oil prices and the current refined oil price formation mechanism, starting from 24:00 on July 12, 2022, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices of will be reduced by 360 yuan and 345 yuan per ton respectively.
This price adjustment is the 13th adjustment of domestic oil prices since this year, and the overall situation is "ten rises, three falls, and zero stranding". The most direct impact of the reduction in the price of refined oil in is that consumers' travel costs will be reduced again. According to market institutions, after this price adjustment is converted into a price increase, 92# gasoline is reduced by 0.28 yuan per liter, 0# diesel is reduced by 0.29 yuan per liter. is calculated based on an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, and filling a tank of oil will cost about 14 yuan less. After the price adjustment of is realized, except for the market in some regions, the price of 92# gasoline in most areas of will return to the "8 yuan era", the price level of will be between 8.7-8.85 yuan/liter, and the price level of 0# diesel will be between 8.35-8.5 yuan/liter.
According to the current refined oil price mechanism, domestic refined oil prices change according to the international market crude oil price and are adjusted every 10 working days. During this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (June 28-July 11), the international oil prices of fell sharply. Monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center shows that on average, the prices of WTI in London and WTI in New York fell by 4.95% compared with the previous round of price adjustment cycle. During the price adjustment cycle, worries that the global economy may fall into recession will spread, and the crude oil market will sell off, driving a sharp decline in oil prices.
US CPI hit a 40-year high in May. The market expects Federal Reserve to raise interest rates sharply. The risk of aggressive interest rate hikes by central banks in developed economies such as the EU and the UK is also increasing. The market's expectations for global economy and crude oil demand growth have both declined, and the net long positions in WTI crude oil futures in London Brent and New York have both dropped to their lowest level since April 2020. In addition, the growth of US crude oil inventories and the number of drilling platforms have increased to the highest since March 2020, and the index hit a new high in the past 20 years and other factors have also affected the decline in oil prices. Oil prices in the two markets fell to nearly three-month lows, and New York's WTI oil prices fell below $100 per barrel for a time. looks forward to the future market, under the influence of multiple factors, the frequency of oil price fluctuations may intensify.
The next price adjustment window will open at 24:00 on July 26, 2022. The "second consecutive declines" have arrived. Is it possible to "three consecutive declines"? Market institutions' judgment is that at present, although the expectation of tightening supply is still there, the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates again this month, and the market's concerns about the economy and demand continue. It is expected that the next round of refined oil price reduction is relatively high.
Author: Xiong Li
Producer: Liu Zhiqi
Review: Zhang Qian
Editing: Zhang Shuo
Editing: Zhang Shuo
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