refined oil prices ushered in the "eighth drop" this year. National Development and Reform Commission released a message today that according to the recent changes in the international market oil prices and the current refined oil price formation mechanism, from 24:00 on November 21, 2022, the domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be reduced by 175 yuan and 165 yuan per ton respectively.
This price adjustment is converted into a price increase, with 92# gasoline lowered by 0.14 yuan per liter and 0# diesel lowered by 0.14 yuan per liter. Calculated based on an ordinary private car with a fuel tank capacity of 50L, filling a tank of oil will cost about 7 yuan less.
During this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (November 7-November 18), international oil prices fluctuate and decline. USD index fell from its high point, an average of 3.09% lower than the previous cycle, boosting the price of crude oil in USD to a certain extent. However, the market's concerns about the decline in the global economic and the growth rate of crude oil demand have once again heated up, and oil prices are therefore under pressure to fall. Federal said that in order to curb inflation, the possibility of continuing rate hikes in December still exists.
market once again worried that "radical interest rate hikes" may lead to a slowdown in global economic growth, thereby curbing crude oil demand. International Monetary Fund said that global economic growth faces multiple adverse factors, and the slowdown in growth is becoming more and more obvious. OPEC monthly report predicts that the growth rate of global crude oil demand in this year and next two years will be 2.55 million barrels per day and 2.24 million barrels per day, both lower than the forecast of last month by 100,000 barrels per day. This is also the fifth time since April that OPEC has lowered its expectations for global crude oil demand growth this year.
In addition, the growth of US gasoline inventory has also suppressed crude oil prices. According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, on average, the prices of WTI in London and WTI in New York fell by 2.23% and 2.09% respectively compared with the previous price adjustment cycle.
Looking ahead to the future market, oil prices may fluctuate in the short term. From the supply perspective, due to the reduction of production by oil-producing countries and the sanctions on Russia's crude oil exports, the tight crude oil supply situation has not improved significantly. From the perspective of demand, the tightening monetary policy adopted by developed economies to alleviate inflationary pressure will still cause damage to the global economy and the growth of crude oil demand, and thus suppress oil prices. "OPEC+"'s current production cut policy will expire at the end of the year, and we need to pay attention to its December monthly meeting's resolution on next year's production policy.
Reporter: Xiong Li
Producer: Qiao Shenying
Review: Zhang Qian
Editing: Zhang Shuo
Editing: Zhang Shuo
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