Reporter Du Yumeng
On December 5, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a message saying that according to the recent changes in the international market oil prices and the current refined oil price formation mechanism, will reduce the domestic gasoline and diesel prices (standard products, the same below) by 440 yuan and 425 yuan per ton respectively from 24:00 on December 5, 2022. The price increase of No. 92 gasoline, No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel are reduced by 0.35 yuan, 0.37 yuan and 0.36 yuan respectively.
"Securities Daily" reporter noticed that the adjustment of the retail price of refined oil in this round of has been the largest decline since the second half of the year. However, if we look at it throughout the year, it will be the second largest drop in gasoline and diesel per ton on April 15 after a reduction of 545 yuan and 530 yuan respectively. After the price adjustment is implemented, the domestic retail price limit for refined oil has undergone 23 adjustments this year, including 13 increase, 9 lower, and 1 stranded. After the rise and fall, gasoline and diesel have increased by 1,030 yuan/ton and 990 yuan/ton respectively, with a price increase of 92 gasoline, 95 gasoline and 0 diesel respectively to 0.81 yuan, 0.85 yuan and 0.84 yuan respectively.
The reduction in oil prices this time is related to the decline in international oil prices during this round of pricing cycle. According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center, international oil prices fell sharply during this round of refined oil price adjustment cycle (November 21-December 2). The prices of WTI crude oil futures in London and New York fell to 11-month lows of $83.03 and $76.28 per barrel respectively. On average, the price of Brent London and WTI in New York fell by 8.42% and 8.36% respectively compared with the previous price adjustment cycle.
The continued decline in international oil prices during this round of price adjustment cycle is affected by the joint action of multiple factors. A relevant person in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission's Price Monitoring Center analyzed to the Securities Daily reporter that on the one hand, the inflation level of developed economies remained high, inhibiting the growth of global economic and crude oil demand. The CPI in the UK and euros zones in October both hit record highs, and the British Chancellor admitted that the economy has fallen into recession. On the other hand, the continued growth of U.S. refined oil inventories also suppressed oil prices.
Looking ahead to the future market, according to the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center, oil prices may intensify in the short term. Specifically, on December 2, G7 and EU both agreed to set a price limit of US$60 per barrel to Russia's crude oil exports, and Russia claimed that it would counter this. Secondly, the International Energy Agency expects that Russia's crude oil production will drop by 2 million barrels per day in the first quarter of next year due to embargo and price caps. Furthermore, the "OPEC+" monthly meeting maintained its current production plan and did not implement new production cuts, with the goal of balancing the oil market. Overall, global crude oil supply is still relatively fragile, with many uncertain factors, and the game between the parties will lead to increased market price fluctuations.
Zhuochuang Information refined oil analyst said in an interview with Securities Daily that in the later stage, on the basis of "OPEC+" maintaining production unchanged, European oil export ban is about to be implemented. In addition, the probability of the Federal Reserve hike in mid-December increased, and is expected to be mainly broad-ranging international oil prices. Overall, at the beginning of the next cycle, the crude oil change rate is still in the negative range, and the retail price of refined oil may have a "three consecutive declines".
pictures | Site Cool Heluo Baotu.com
production | Liu Ruizhi
review | Zhu Baochen
edit | Caishandan
final review | Ma Fangye
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