"The interception rate of single-shot interception is 70%, and the interception success rate of three-shot interception is 210%. Let's not talk about whether the success rate of single-shot interception can reach 70%, even if it is really 70%. Brother, is your algorithm really right? It is estimated that middle school students and doctors across the country will call themselves experts. This is like a doctor told you that the success rate of this surgery is 1%. All the first 99 people failed. You are the 100th patient to undergo the surgery, and the operation will definitely be successful. This question is probably the level of choosing or filling in the blanks in the first few college entrance examinations. If you don’t answer this correctly, you will basically say goodbye to higher education.
Oh, by the way, I would like to remind this expert that if you follow this algorithm, the interception success rate of the two shots is 140%. Is it necessary to hit the third shot?
Of course, some "experts" in Taiwan have bad brains. It does not mean that everyone in Taiwan has bad brains. Objectively speaking, if the anti-missile capability and the anti-missile system construction alone, Taiwan still has many remarkable points. Out of fear of the power of the mainland missile , Taiwan pays great attention to the development of anti-missile capabilities. As early as the late 1990s, Taiwan relied on France to launch the "China News Service" 1 communication satellite with fast communication and data transmission capabilities.
Time comes to the early 21st century. At that time, the mainland's missile deterrence ability was far inferior to that of now, but Taiwan was already equipped with the most advanced "Patriot" type 2 anti-missile system in the United States. This famous anti-missile system became famous for its outstanding performance in intercepting the "Scud" missile during the Gulf War , and claimed that the interception success rate was 100%. In addition to the "Patriot" series, with the United States' technical assistance and the more developed semiconductor and electronics industries on the island, the Taiwan R&D department has also launched the Taiwan self-developed anti-missile system "Tiangong" 2 upgraded based on "Patriot". Although it is claimed to be an improved version, according to general speculation from the outside world, the anti-missile capability of "Tiangong" 2 is actually not as good as the "Patriot" series.
"Sky Bow"2
In recent years, the mainland's missile deterrence ability has reached a new level, and the anti-missile capability of Taiwan has also been improving. The mainland and Taiwan are like two fighting warriors. One side keeps attacking with a spear, while the other side keeps defending with a shield, but the defense side is at a disadvantage after all.
According to incomplete statistics, Taiwan's defense department has deployed about 19 large fixed or mobile radar stations on and outside Taiwan's island. The number of air defense warning radars is more than 50. The strongest detection capability and the most threat to mainland missiles is the "Paving Claw" long-range early warning radar imported from the United States. Its maximum detection distance is more than 4,800 kilometers. However, it is said that the " Paving Claw " sold to Taiwan by the Americans is a castrated version, far less than the self-used version of the United States. But one thing that is certain is that the early warning and detection system in Taiwan has realized data sharing with national air defense early warning systems such as Japan and the United States, forming an important part of the air defense early warning network in the Western Pacific region and posing a serious threat to the normal activities of the People's Liberation Army in the region. Therefore, Taiwan is not only an island, but also an important throat for China to break the island chain and move forward to the Western Pacific activity in the future.
In fact, there has been more than once the images of the Western Kongs appearing in the photos of the large radar stations disclosed by the defense department of Taiwan. We also have basically reason to conclude and believe that relevant military technicians from the US or other countries have been deployed in Taiwan to assist Taiwan in improving their anti-missile capabilities.
Currently, the main anti-missile weapons in Taiwan revolve around the "Patriot" 3 anti-missile system and the self-developed "Sky Bow" 3 series in Taiwan. Each "Patriot" 3 anti-missile system can carry 16 PAC-3 missiles. Its AN/MPQ-65 radar can track at least 120 air targets at the same time and guide 18 missiles to intercept, with a maximum detection distance of more than 250 kilometers. In 1993, Taiwan introduced three "Patriot" 2 anti-missile systems from the United States, and began to be deployed on the island in 1993.In 2010, the United States sold 6 "Patriot" 3 systems to Taiwan, so there are currently about 9 "Patriot" systems deployed in Taiwan.
"Tiangong" 3 anti-missile system is a new missile defense system independently developed by Taiwan. It is used in conjunction with the "Changbai" phased array radar, which is also known as self-developed. Although it is claimed to be self-developed, its foundation is still the "Patriot" 2 series. The anti-missile system of "Tiangong" 3 is an improved version of "Tiangong" 2, while "Tiangong" 2 is a copy of "Patriot" 2. Compared with "Sky Bow" 2, "Sky Bow" 3 has greatly improved in terms of range and flight speed. With the "Changbai" radar, its maximum detection distance can reach 600 kilometers. It adopts a tow-hanging and hanging launch mode with omnidirectional combat capability. At present, the anti-missile system of "Tiangong" 3 is mainly deployed in major cities in Taiwan and important transportation and military facilities. According to external estimates, the anti-missile performance of "Tiangong" 3 is generally weaker than that of "Patriot" 3.
Taiwan’s anti-missile system can intercept my ballistic missile mainly in the middle and ends. Due to intelligence capabilities and weapon performance, the possibility of Taiwan’s interception in the early stage of missile launch is basically zero. Although there is intelligence sharing of the US space-based infrared system , and the E-2T early warning aircraft for sustainable reconnaissance, it only provides early warning for the launch of the missile, and then the tracking and intervention of the "Paving Claw" radar and other radar will be intervened.
E-2T early warning aircraft
Since the missile launch point is likely to be close to Taiwan, the reaction time left to Taiwan is only a few minutes. Since the range of the Dongfeng series missiles has reached or has far exceeded the interception upper limit of "Patriot" 3, the interception success rate will also drop significantly. Once the launch form of a close-range high-spreading ballistic is adopted, the middle section of the missile's flight will be almost Taiwan's. The detection blind spots of all radars in the region, coupled with the extremely low success rate of terminal interception, even successful interception will bring considerable losses to densely populated areas. Therefore, overall, even if Taiwan has the densest anti-missile network in the world, the possibility of effective interception under such combat conditions is extremely low. According to Taiwan itself, the success rate of interception is about 83%, while according to relevant research from , Israeli and the United States, the interception success rate is actually only 9%.
Not only that, under actual combat conditions, with the use of various electronic warfare and saturated strikes, the success rate of anti-missile interception in Taiwan will be further reduced. Various land-based large radars, anti-missile units and air defense positions on the island will also be the targets of the first round of strikes. In short, I don’t know whether the interception rate of the three missiles is 210%, but four cups of 25℃ of water will not turn into boiling water at 100℃ together.
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