If the European auto market has not fallen this year, will this be a warmth in the global downturn this year?
Following September, the total automobile sales of the European Union, the 27 EU countries (Malta data is not available for the time being) and the European Free Trade Union, continued to see growth.
According to data from the European Automobile Manufacturers Association ACEA, the total sales of automobiles in these countries in October were 1,214,989 units, an increase of 8.6% year-on-year. Not only did it show its first continuous growth this year, but its sales volume was slightly higher than 1,207,982 units in 2017, becoming the highest sales of European cars in the same period since 2010.
However, even so, due to poor performance in the first eight months, the total sales of European automobiles this year were still slightly lower than the same period last year as of October, but the decline has narrowed to 0.7%.
In 2018, these 29 European countries sold a total of 15.618 million vehicles, while the cumulative sales in the first 10 months of this year have reached 13.331 million vehicles. That is to say, if the European auto market can continue to have a good trend in November and December and at least 2.287 million vehicles can be sold, then this year may be able to get rid of the situation of another decline. This is not an impossible task for the European auto market, after all, 2.383 million and 2.395 million were sold in the last two months of 2016 and 2017 respectively.
Among the five major European markets, the UK fell only
The total sales in Europe in October were mainly due to the fact that the automobile market in these 29 countries basically showed signs of recovery. 25 countries achieved positive growth, and 18 of them had an increase of more than 10%, including 58.1% in Romania and 45.3% in Lithuania. Only the UK, Cyprus , Iceland and Norway were negative year-on-year.
The most noticeable thing in the four countries with negative growth is the UK, because it is the only country among the top five automobile markets in Europe that fell year-on-year. The UK's passenger car sales in October fell to the lowest sales since 2012, at only 143,000 units. The reason why the UK continues to decline is that Brexit causes domestic economic and political uncertainty, which seriously affects the confidence of enterprises and consumers. This can be confirmed by the growth rate of GDP in the UK.
Data from the UK's National Office for Statistics showed that the UK's GDP grew by 0.3% month-on-month in the third quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate slowed to 1%, which is the lowest growth rate since 2010. After a 0.2% month-on-month decline in the second quarter of this year, growth in the third quarter prevented the British economy from falling into a technical recession, but the actual situation is not as optimistic as the data.
The slight increase in the third quarter was due to the GDP growth of 0.3% in July, and in fact, it fell 0.2% and 0.1% in August and September, respectively. Moreover, from the perspective of major industries in the UK, even in July, agriculture showed negative growth of 0.1%, not to mention that production and manufacturing industries, which are more important to the economy, fell in August and September, and the service industry, as the pillar of the economy, was basically in a stagnant state.
IHS Markit chief business economist Chris Williamson said the lack of growth in the services sector as the manufacturing and construction industry declined means the UK economy is suffering its worst period since the 2008 financial crisis.
Although the EU has agreed to extend the deadline for Brexit to January 31, 2020 again, in order to promote the current deadlock, the UK will even hold a general election ahead of schedule on December 12, but at present, the sluggish British auto market this year will continue.
This year, Nissan is still the car company with the largest decline
. Looking at major automakers, 6 of the 15 automakers still had negative year-on-year in October, among which Daimler Group and Ford both fell slightly by 0.2%, PSA fell 4.9%, while Jaguar Land Rover , Mitsubishi and Honda all fell more than 10%.
However, since the reduction of these six auto companies is relatively small, while the larger Volkswagen , Mazda , Renault , and Toyota have a large increase, the European auto market will continue to maintain a large growth in October.
is consistent with the overall market. In October, the sales of Volkswagen Group's were not only higher than in 2018, but even surpassed 298,043 units in the same period in 2017 with an advantage of more than 2,000 units.Volkswagen Group was able to achieve a growth of 31.1% in October. On the one hand, the sales of the group's brands all fell to varying degrees, resulting in a decline of 21.6% last year, which made the comparison base lower. On the other hand, Volkswagen's sales of various brands in October saw a significant increase. Among these five brands, Volkswagen, Skoda and Porsche sales exceeded the same period in 2017, among which Porsche's sales doubled, with an increase of 394.3%. The second largest increase in
is Mazda at 27.0%. Its growth rate is mainly due to the relatively small sales of Mazda 2 and Mazda 3 in the same period last year. This year, the performance of these two cars is relatively good, which has also greatly improved the brand's sales. Although
cannot be compared with Volkswagen Group and Mazda, Renault Group also grew by 12.9%. However, the Lada brand in the group has negative growth, and the growth rate of Renault brand and Dacia is smaller than that of Volkswagen brands. Therefore, Renault's sales have not returned to the level of 2017 this year, and there is still a gap of nearly 5,000 vehicles.
and Toyota Group can grow by 10.9%, mainly because the new model UX released by the luxury brand Lexus , the Toyota brand Corolla and RAV4 have also been launched, which has led to an increase of 6,570 units in Toyota's sales compared with the same period last year.
10 October is the most delightful thing about Nissan Auto . Since the implementation of WLTP in September last year, Nissan's sales have been in a state of sharp decline, with a minimum drop of 7.0% in September this year, while the declines in the other 12 months have exceeded double digits. It is precisely this continuous decline that led to the first growth of daily production capacity in October in 14 months, with an increase of 0.6%.
But such a slight increase cannot conceal the fact that Nissan's sales in the European market are still falling. In the first 10 months, Nissan's cumulative decline was 23.9%, the largest drop among the 15 auto companies. Judging from the previous two years, Nissan's total sales in 2017 were 565,000 units, and in 2018 it was 492,000 units. However, its cumulative sales in the first 10 months of this year were only 334,505 units. According to the trends in previous years, the sales volume in November and December were basically not much different from October. So Nissan's European sales this year should not exceed 400,000 units, so the annual decline was basically stable at about 20%. Last year, Nissan's decline was the largest of 12.8% among all automakers, and this halo will still belong to it this year.
Source: Daily Auto
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