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8-inch wafer foundry mature process has faded. The professional eight-inch wafer fab world advanced held an online legal meeting yesterday, announcing that the second quarter revenue and profits reached a new high, with a pure profit of 2.94 yuan per share, but Chairman Fang Lun said that the economic downturn was established, and due to inflation, the Russian-Ukraine war and the epidemic, the adjustment of semiconductor inventory will continue until the first half of next year.
World Operations Chief Wei Ji said that the wafer foundry price has room for a reduction due to the loose production capacity this quarter, but the overall price is still relatively stable.
Before the World Advanced held a legal meeting, major wafer foundry manufacturers have successively expressed their views on semiconductor inventory adjustments. Although the advanced processes are still not affected, the mature processes have the most significant impact, and the world's advanced products are unlikely to be spared. Fang Lai, Chairman and General Manager of the World, pointed out yesterday that there will be differences in the process and applications of semiconductor inventory, but the company will take about two to four seasons.
World said that the inventory adjustment in the next second quarter is the most active, with panel-driven IC orders still increasing compared to power management IC, and the distributed components are still stable. Chen Zijun, deputy general manager of world global business and planning, said that high inflation has caused weak demand for terminal consumer electronic products and may continue until the first half of next year, but the company will also adjust the capacity growth rate according to the situation and maintain the resilience of capacity adjustment.
World Advanced also unexpectedly reduced capital expenditure yesterday. Based on customers' active adjustment of inventory order visibility converged to about three months, and the downward revision capital expenditure dropped from 24 billion yuan to 23 billion yuan, a decrease of about 4%. 70% of which is used to renovate the fifth wafer factory and build a new eight-inch production capacity. It is estimated that the fifth wafer factory will reach 20,000 monthly production capacity by the end of next year. This part will also be postponed from the first half of next year to the end of next year; 20% will be used to expand the third wafer factory; and the other 10% will be used to routine equipment repairs in other factories.
As for the legal person's concern about the progress of the world's 12-inch factory investment, the strategy stated that the 12-inch factory investment is an assessment that will be made in response to the company's 8-inch capacity expansion encountered a bottleneck. The investment will still be evaluated towards this goal, but when it needs to be put into investment actions, it will definitely be carried out with customer support.
World and estimates revenue this quarter is between 129 and 13.3 billion yuan, a quarterly decrease of 13.1% to 15.7%. The gross profit margin is expected to be between 44% and 46%, which is about five percentage points lower than the previous quarter. The reason for the decline is mainly due to customers' active adjustment of inventory and a decrease in capacity utilization; the operating rate of profit will be between 32.5% and 34.5%.
UMC: The semiconductor industry has entered the "inventory adjustment period" from the "super cycle"
UMC held a legal meeting on the 27th to warn the semiconductor industry to enter the inventory adjustment period. US foreign capital mentioned that UMC expects the wafer foundry industry to continue to grow next year, which may be too optimistic and the stock price may still have a bottom.
UMC warned on the 27th that the semiconductor industry has entered the "inventory adjustment period" from the "super cycle" and that some long-term customers have been unable to pull goods as expected. The current quotation has not risen much.
, co-general manager of UMC, Wang Shi, mentioned that despite the increase in uncertainties, the optimistic view for the second half of the year and next year remains unchanged. The output value of wafer foundry this year is expected to grow by 20%. Although the growth will slow down next year, it can still grow.
Some American foreign capital have a conservative view on this and mentioned that the current market consensus is that the wafer foundry industry will decline next year, which is different from UMG's growth outlook for next year. In this environment, UMG may lower its outlook next year.
Some Japanese foreign capital believe that the semiconductor downward cycle bottoms out in the first half of next year. At this stage, it is impossible to judge the adjustment range. It believes that UMC may take longer to measure the scale of the downturn, and its outlook on UMC tends to be conservative.
chip shortage is two different. Mobile phones are alleviated and the bottleneck of automobiles will take months to ease
As inventory increases, the semiconductor shortage that plagues manufacturers shows signs of improvement in industries such as mobile phones and personal computers, but for automakers, the bottleneck of production seems to be likely to last for months.
Nikkei Asia reported that after long-term supply chain tensions, more and more market participants believe that the chip market has passed the high point of the boom to bust cycle every 3 to 4 years.
Gartner lowered its global semiconductor revenue growth forecast this year from 13.6% to 7.4% in July. Memory demand and pricing have weakened, especially in consumer-related fields such as personal computers and smartphones, which will help slow down demand growth.
Nikkei surveyed six experts from chip trading companies, research companies and consulting companies to analyze industry trends, pointing out that there is a trend of oversupply of semiconductors in the fields of smartphones and personal computers, while the supply and demand of household appliances are being balanced.
Production in these areas has begun to recover from chip-related restrictions, and Sony Group has once again begun accepting orders for some digital cameras in May. But the shortage of automotive, industrial equipment and data center chips seems likely to continue until the end of this year, with Toyota having cut its August production forecast by about 20% from its initial estimates.
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