On September 19, 2022, Yadi held the 10 millionth Yadi Guanneng electric vehicle launch ceremony, becoming the first Chinese electric vehicle brand in the industry to enter the "10 million vehicle club".

Author: Wangshan

Yadi has once again become the number one.

On September 19, 2022, Yadi held the 10 millionth Yadi Guanneng electric vehicle launch ceremony, becoming the first Chinese electric vehicle brand in the industry to enter the "10 million vehicle club".

It is understood that the Yadi "Crown" series was launched in 2020 and has been iterated for three generations so far. CITIC Securities Research Report once pointed out, "Compared with ordinary products, the 'Crown' series has better performance in ASP and profitability, which has promoted the company's bicycle net profit from 90 yuan in the same period last year to 147 yuan in the first half of 2022."

Yadi vigorously promoted the 10 millionth Yadi Guanneng electric vehicle to be launched. On the one hand, it certainly shows that the product has certain core competitiveness and can form economies of scale; on the other hand, it may also hope that the capital market will see that its high-end process has begun to take results.

However, it is worth noting that as the electric two-wheeler market dividends brought by the new national standard hit, whether Yadi can still gain a certain advantage in the competition with other two-wheeler electric vehicle companies in the future and continue to write "economic scale" is also a problem that the capital market has to worry about.

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22m2m0The dividends of the two-wheeled electric vehicle market will reach the top

In fact, as early as around 2013, China's electric two-wheeled vehicle market entered a "recession period" after experiencing the eleven-year "golden age".

Picture source: Huachuang Securities

Huachuang Securities data shows that in 2013, China's electric two-wheeler production reached a high of 36.95 million units, a year-on-year increase of 5.42%. Since then, this number has begun to fall. In 2017, China's electric two-wheeler production was only 31.13 million units, down 15.75% from its 2013 high.

According to this trend, the dividends of China's electric two-wheeler market are declining at a speed visible to the naked eye, and the electric two-wheeler industry has entered the "stock era".

However, the new national standard for electric two-wheelers released in May 2018 has brought a new round of dividends to the industry. It is reported that the "Technical Code for Safety of Electric Bicycles" (GB 17761-2018) has been enforced from April 15, 2019, and the transition period from 2022 to 2025 is the transition period. This standard has mandatory requirements for the weight, size and speed of electric two-wheeled vehicles.

Since most electric two-wheeled vehicles were not designed according to the new national standard before, the new national standard has spawned a huge wave of changing cars.

Huachuang Securities data shows that after 2018, the production of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China began to soar. In 2021, the output of related products reached 45.51 million units, an increase of 46.19% from 2017, setting a record high.

As the market capacity expands, industry players have also risen. Taking Yadi as an example, in 2018, its two-wheeled electric vehicles sold only 5.04 million units. By 2021, this number reached 13.86 million units, an increase of 175%.

However, the dividends brought by the policy come quickly and go quickly.

Huachuang Securities predicts that 2022-2023 will be the peak of electric two-wheeler replacement, with sales expected to reach 51-55 million units. After 2024, the sales of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China will gradually decline.

This also means that China's electric two-wheeler market may once again enter a "recession period" similar to 2013.

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"Uns high" Yadi

Although Yadi's sales data have steadily increased in the past few years, which is related to the "car change bonus" brought by the new national standard, it cannot be ignored that the price war initiated by Yadi is also a major inducement to its winning market voice.

When it was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2016, Yadi used the power of capital to launch a promotional campaign of "reducing the price of all models by 30%. In October 2020, Yadi and Pinduoduo jointly held the "Brand Ten Thousand People Group" event, and its two-wheeled electric vehicles such as Guanneng, Euromonitor, and Leon were generally reduced by 10%-30%.

's fierce price war strategy makes it difficult not to increase the market share of Yadi products.

Snowball data shows that in 2018, Yadi and Emma's two-wheeled electric vehicles had market shares of 17.6% and 17.9% respectively. At this time, Yadi even lags behind Emma. However, by 2020, Yadi's market share reached 23.1%, far exceeding Emma's 13%.

price war can certainly increase Yadi's market voice in a short period of time, but its disadvantage is also obvious, that is, it weakens the company's revenue-generating capabilities.

financial report shows that from 2019 to 2021, against the backdrop of revenue growth, Yadi's gross profit margin was 17.4%, 15.9% and 15.2%, respectively, and continued to decline. In 2020, the average selling price of Yadi electric scooters fell from 1,690 yuan to 1,552 yuan; the average selling price of electric bicycles fell from 1,228 yuan to 1,118 yuan.

On the one hand, with the price war strategy, Yadi has "topped"; on the other hand, the dividends of China's electric two-wheeler market are likely to disappear in two years, and Yadi naturally launched a high-end strategy that adapts to the stock era.

In July 2021, Yadi officially launched its high-end sub-brand VFLY. It is understood that the brand includes multiple product lines such as Flying, and is priced at RMB 6,999-19,800. The launch of the high-end brand of

has indeed immediately boosted the average price of Yadi products. According to the financial report, in 2021, the average selling price of Yadi electric scooters increased from 1,552 yuan to 1,662 yuan; the average selling price of electric bicycles increased from 1,118 yuan to 1,265 yuan.

However, it is worth noting that high-end brands have not "filled" the "big pit" of Yadea's price war. According to the financial report, in the first half of 2022, Yadea's gross profit margin was 17.9%, although it increased by 3% year-on-year, it has just returned to the level in 2018.

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Yadi needs to face the challenge of "specialist"

Although with its large-scale promotion and relatively low average customer price, Yadea has become the undisputed "number one" in China's electric two-wheeler market, as the industry dividend narrows, Yadea still needs to face the competition of many "specialist".

financial report shows that in the first half of 2022, Yadi's revenue was 14.051 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.54%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 900 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.6%.

Although Yadi's double-digit growth rate of revenue and net profit is still quite impressive, once compared with players of the same level in the industry, you can find that it is already slightly tired.

financial report shows that in the first half of 2022, Emma's revenue was 9.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.08%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 690 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 119.79%.

Aima's performance growth rate far exceeds Yadi, partly because the former has achieved better results in emerging channels.

At the previous 2021 Yadi Technology Global Multiplication Strategy Summit, Yadi founder Dong Jinggui revealed that Yadi must occupy at least 35% of the market globally. This is also a major policy for Yadea to deal with the tightening of dividends in China's electric two-wheeler market.

However, in the 2022 financial report, Yadi only stated that "more than 90% of the Group's revenue and operating profits come from the sales of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China... Therefore, it does not present regional data according to the Hong Kong Financial Reporting Standards No. 8 operating branch." This may imply that Yadi's overseas sales are not ideal.

As a comparison, Emma's international business revenue increased by 117 million yuan in the first half of 2022, an increase of 111.69% year-on-year. In addition to Emma, ​​other electric two-wheeler manufacturers have also made efforts in the overseas market and achieved remarkable results.

In the first half of 2022, Niu Electric's overseas sales reached 28,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 309.1%. Among them, the sales of electric scooters exceeded 20,000 units, a record high.

In addition to not having many highlights in overseas business, Yadea also needs to face the challenges of players with "Internet thinking" in the high-end market such as Mavericks and Nine.

The most core product direction of Maverick is "smart + lithium battery". Taking the MQi2s urban version as an example, it is equipped with a car-grade power battery cell, positioned as the "electro-automatic intelligent super flagship benchmark" and can provide a maximum range of 65km.

is similar to Mavericks. The No. 9 robot, which was previously highly bound to Xiaomi, also gives its own products a unique intelligent experience. For example, owners of No. 9 can purchase the "No. 9 Smart Selection Service Pack" for a price of 66 yuan per year, and then enjoy functions such as sharing keys and positioning the vehicle position.

is different from Mavericks and Nine who have an intelligent experience to achieve high-end breakthroughs. The most important selling point of the products under the VFLY brand is the big screen.

Although electric two-wheeled vehicles equipped with large screens do have a certain sense of technology, it is difficult to bring a revolutionary experience comparable to smart cars.

Because most car owners will carry their mobile phones with them when riding electric two-wheeled bikes.

Whether you are listening to music or navigation, you can do it directly with your phone.From this point of view, the large screen of VFLY products may be just a "small rib" for most consumers.

high-end process was not effective, and the performance growth rate in the first half of the year was overtaken by Emma. The international market is facing the encirclement of many competitors, and the capital market is also waiting and watching Yadi. As of September 30, 2022, Yadi's share price was only HK$12.6 per share, down 42.07% from the high of HK$21.75 per share in February 2021. If

cannot draw a strong business curve, Yadi's stock price may continue to be under pressure in the future.