Following the 5th foreign exchange market, the stock market and futures market also began to be upset on the 6th. Commodity Main Futures collectively fell sharply, and the declines of Hong Kong stock and A shares are also intensifying. Although A-shares showed a slightly rebounding trend at the end of the trading session, there is nothing worthy of praise for today's stock market decline.
However, there is still a phenomenon worthy of everyone's attention. The "trillion track" of chips suddenly ushered in an explosion on the 6th. Why is such a market structure formed? Can a historical scene three years ago be reproduced again?
01
0 turmoil suddenly came
According to third-party information, most domestic commodity futures markets closed down on the 6th, with energy chemicals and oil leading the decline, fuel dropping by more than 8%, crude oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, palm oil falling by more than 7%, and oil production stock prices fell by more than 6%. Most black systems show an upward trend, among which, iron ore rose by nearly 2%, ferrosilicon and coke rose by more than 1%, and thermal coal fell by more than 2%; basic metals showed a downward trend, international copper, Shanghai copper and Shanghai tin fell by more than 5%; precious metals also showed a downward trend, Shanghai silver fell by more than 3%, and Shanghai gold fell by more than 2%.
htmlOn July 6, A-share market continued to fall, and the decline exceeded 2% in the afternoon. The 20-day moving average support began to show results, and the late trading showed a slight rebound trend. The ChiNext Index rose more than 1% at the beginning of the session and then fell again, and resumed the 2800 mark in the late trading session. The market's transaction volume reached 1.08 trillion yuan, while the market's 5th transaction volume was 1.18 trillion yuan. On the market, the catering, tourism, oil and gas, coal, shipping, fertilizers, and agricultural sectors have entered a state of adjustment, and the robot, semiconductor, automobile and parts sectors have also shown an upward trend. The leading lithium battery companies continue to be active, and China Micro Company and North Huachuang have increased significantly.
Hong Kong stocks did not escape the fate of killing across the board. The Hang Seng Technology Index once rose by more than 3%, and then rebounded.
Data from third-party institutions show that northbound funds took the bottom-up action after entering the market at the end of the trading period, and the net selling amount throughout the day reached 1.383 billion yuan. The net selling of Shanghai stocks was close to 2.3 billion yuan, and the net buying of Shenzhen Stock Connect was close to 900 million yuan.
02
American fangs reappear?
According to foreign media reports, an insider said in an interview that the US is currently pushing the Netherlands ASML Holding NV to terminate the sale of important technologies necessary to manufacture most of the world's chips to China, with the main purpose of further increasing the bargaining chips for the United States to curb China's rise.
The Netherlands company was unable to export its most advanced lithography machine to China before this. Foreign media reported that Washington will also restrict the sales of non-new technology machines in the next step. Some industry insiders said that U.S. officials are doing ideological work on their Dutch counterparts and ban ASML from selling non-new deep ultraviolet lithography systems to China. Non-new machines are still one generation behind cutting-edge technologies, but they cannot be changed. They are still common methods for manufacturing some not-so-advanced chips needed to manufacture telephones, cars, robots, and computers. After the foreign media report was released, the stocks listed in the United States fell sharply by more than 8%.
According to observations on the peninsula industry, the restrictions proposed by the United States may further expand the current suspension period for the sale of top cutting-edge advanced technology systems to China, thereby preventing China from becoming a world chip production leader. Once the Netherlands agrees, it will inevitably greatly expand the scope and category of chip manufacturing equipment that is now prohibited from entering China, which may also cause a serious blow to Chinese chip manufacturers.
According to data from General Administration of Customs , the total value of imports and exports of goods between China and the Netherlands exceeded US$100 billion last year, reaching US$116.45 billion, and increased by nearly 27% year-on-year. In terms of RMB, it is 752.2 billion yuan, and China's trade surplus with the Netherlands is as high as 517.2 billion yuan. China is the third largest trading partner of the Netherlands, and on the contrary, the Netherlands ranks 16 among China's trading partners. If the Netherlands does not sell lithography machines to China, it will lead to a larger trade surplus.
html On July 6, the chip stock market in the A-share market was also driven by this news. In the early trading, the chip index once rose by more than 4%, and in the afternoon, as the market moved, it fell again, but the increase was still as high as 2%, significantly outperforming the market. The logic behind the rise of the chip sector is actually domestic substitution. This phenomenon occurred in the second half of 2019, when the semiconductor sector was at its peak.
01
A shares rebound is coming to an end?
Speaking of the market, the question of whether the rebound of A-shares needs to be faced directly, what is the answer?
First, the turmoil in the foreign exchange market is the main source of adjustment. On the evening of the 5th, euro plummeted and the US dollar soared. At the same time, commodities plummeted across the board, which also strengthened the market's concerns about recession and international liquidity. However, judging from the current situation, US stock performed well on the evening of the 5th, and the European market opened on the 6th and performed well. Therefore, the short-term impact of exchange rate may have come to an end, but judging from the market performance of the US dollar, index is still at a 20-year high. If the US dollar cannot keep weakening, emerging markets will still face many crises.
Second, the epidemic is also one of the reasons for market adjustments. There are repeated outbreaks in Shanghai, , Wuxi, , Xi'an, Anhui and other places. Mutations have appeared again overseas, and the number of confirmed cases has increased rapidly. According to official reports from Japan on the 6th, the COVID-19 epidemic in Japan has spread again, and new confirmed patients have emerged one after another. The Japanese government said that this is because the more contagious Omickron BA.5 subtype has gradually replaced BA.2, and the Omickron BA.5 subtype has become the most infectious strain in Japan now. The epidemic is worrying. For a long time in the future, the timing of economic improvement is unpredictable. The main reason for the sharp decline of the consumer sector on the 6th should be due to the impact of the epidemic.
So, is the rebound of A-shares ushering in a stable situation? From the perspective of today's sales decline, there is no obvious panic. Some high-level sectors and popular tracks performed unexpectedly because of their strong resistance to declines. New Energy Sector is a question, and the decline on the 6th was significantly smaller than that of the market. This phenomenon also indicates that funds are not willing to leave the market. In addition, the intensity of foreign capital selling has not increased significantly. Senior practitioners in the industry analyzed that the volatile rebound pattern is expected to continue.
END
Source: Global listed company club
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