On October 20, 2022, local time, British Prime Minister Trass delivered a speech at 10 Downing Street, central London, and announced his resignation.

On October 20, 2022, London, UK, British Prime Minister Tras delivered a speech at 10 Downing Street, central London, announcing his resignation. British Prime Minister Tras announced his resignation just six weeks after taking office. Visual China Picture

At 13:34 local time on October 20 (20:34 Beijing time on the 20th), the current British Prime Minister Tras officially announced his resignation at No. 10 Downing Street, and resigned from his position as head of the British Conservative Party. She said a new round of elections will be held next week to elect a new Conservative Party leader, and she will continue to serve as prime minister until the new leader is appointed by the Conservative Party .

Two ministers in the cabinet resigned one after another within a week, at least 13 members of parliament publicly called on their resignation, and some members submitted a letter of distrust against Tras to Brady, chairman of the "1922 Committee", Tras finally chose to let go.

"The same way as the collapse of the previous two governments"

"I didn't expect resignation to happen so soon." Asked about the fundamental reason why the prime minister "why did it come to this point", Zhang Bei, an assistant researcher at the European Institute of the China Institute of International Studies, told Pengpai News (www.thepaper.cn), "Previously, we have realized that Tras's throne has not been long. Whether it is the Minister of Finance who was fired by her or the Minister of the Home Affairs voluntarily resigning, these two operations have determined that she has lost her trust."

Since Tras came to power, the domestic economic situation in the UK has been turbulent. According to CNN (CNN) on October 19, data released by the UK National Statistics Agency on the same day showed that the inflation rate in the UK rose to 10.1% in September, the same as the inflation rate in July, and higher than 9.9% from September 2021 to August 2022, reaching a 40-year high.

Faced with a turbulent economy, the policies introduced by Trass’ cabinet were not able to turn the tide. Her former British Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwoten released the government’s “mini budget” tax cut plan on September 23. Specific measures include cutting national insurance, abolishing corporate tax plans, and reducing stamp duty on real estate purchases. The tax cut program has caused the pound to drop to a record low against the dollar, and has also been publicly opposed by Conservative MPs. On October 14, local time, Kwoten was dismissed 38 days after taking office. The new Chancellor of the Exchequer Hunter revoked the previously announced "almost all" tax measures.

Zhang Bei said that because Tras's own "mini budget" has been overturned, it means that she has lost political trust and is in a desperate situation. "The so-called "soldier-like persistence" wording of British politicians is not trustworthy. Johnson had a similar tough attitude before, but in the end he could not escape the fate of resignation. The economic policy ideas proposed by Tras even came from the era of former Prime Minister Mrs. Thatcher more than 40 years ago, and it was completely incompatible with the current international situation and the needs of the British people."

Li Guanjie, a think tank researcher at the British Research Center of the Shanghai Institute of Global Governance and Regional Countries, pointed out to The Paper , "Overall, the problem of the Trass government was originally a policy mistake. If the Secretary of the Exchequer announced his original economic plan, such as tax cuts, he would just implement it, but it cannot be said that he had announced a policy, and now considering that many people oppose it, Tras suddenly changed his mind. This is not like something a politician did. So Tras is now in a difficult situation."

"The British cabinet pursues 'collective responsibility'. When important cabinet members resign one after another, the prime minister will face huge pressure to step down. In this regard, the collapse of Theresa May's government and Johnson's government were the same way." Chen Qi, associate professor at the British Research Center of Shanghai Foreign Studies University, analyzed to The Paper.

The next Prime Minister’s successor has many choices

Previously, according to data released by independent polling agency YouGov on October 18, of the 530 Conservative Party members who were subject to an impromptu survey, 55% of the Conservative Party members believed that Tras should resign from the position of Prime Minister and 38% hoped that she would continue to stay. According to poll data released by Ipsos on the 17th, 34% of respondents believe that Labour Party is the best party in Britain's economic management policy, which is the first time since September 2007 that the Labor Party has led the Conservative Party on this issue.At the same time, Labour's support rate on taxation, health care, education and other issues is also significantly ahead of the Conservatives.

BBC reported on the 20th that after Tras announced his resignation, the opposition parties Liberal Democratic Party , Labor Party and Scottish National Party all called for an immediate general election.

In response to this, Zhang Bei analyzed that if the election is early, the Conservative Party's votes may be miserable, because the polls now show that the Labor Party is leading significantly, not to mention that the Conservative Party is now so chaotic. "If the election is to be held, there must be a leader to lead the Conservative Party to participate in the election. Only when the Conservative Party elects such a leader can there be room for the election. However, in just a few years since the 2019 general election, the Conservative Party has changed its prime minister many times, if it is always within the party. If the party leader is frequently changed and the prime minister is changed, the voters will definitely not buy it. Even if this is a legal operation, it is not good to frequently change the prime minister's situation. "

When talking about the possible successor of Tras, Zhang Bei believes that there are two groups of people in the Conservative Party who may win the position of prime minister at present, one group is traditional politicians such as former Chancellor of the Finance Minister Sunak and Hunter, and the other group is right-wing politicians such as Sura Braverman, who announced his resignation as Home Secretary not long ago.

"I think the possibility is Wallace, the Secretary of Defense. Because Wallace's position as Secretary of Defense is very stable, he has always been a cabinet minister. No matter how many Prime Ministers have changed, he has not changed. This is a very advantageous place." Li Guanjie said, "The second candidate is Sunak, who was not selected before. I think he will come back and choose again, because after all, the facts have proved that his opponent is relatively bad, so it proves from the negative that he is still good."

When mentioning whether former Prime Minister Johnson is a smart person, he may not run for the election now, because waiting for the early election to be elected by the party leader, he will have a higher chance of winning and will be relatively stable."

When talking about whether former Prime Minister Johnson is a smart person, he may not run for the election now, because waiting for the election to be elected internally, he will come out. By then, his chances of winning will be higher and more stable."