Unexpectedly, Putin's blitzkrieg did not work, and unexpectedly, on the fourth day of the war, Putin used the ultimate weapon of nuclear deterrence, and Ukraine sued Russia to the International Tribunal of the Hague.

Last Thursday, Putin announced a full-scale attack on Ukraine, to demilitarize and de-Nazize Ukraine, and to send national sinners such as Zelensky to Military Court . Unexpectedly, Putin's blitzkrieg did not work, and unexpectedly, on the fourth day of the war, Putin used the ultimate killer of nuclear deterrence (the last time it was the former Soviet Union threatened to conduct a surgical nuclear strike on China, which was scared away by the United States), and Ukraine sued Russia to International Court of the Hague.

From the historical perspective, the German "Spiegel Weekly" on February 19, 2022 disclosed a document that had been sleeping in the British National Archives for many years, showing that at the talks on March 6, 1991, the United States, Britain, Germany and France did jointly promise to the former Soviet Union that NATO will not expand eastward. Ergen Kroborg, a senior foreign official who attended the meeting at the time, also confirmed this, and evidence refused to be there. At that time, five months have passed since , and the Warsaw Treaty was in jeopardy. The politicians of Warsaw and Budapest both conveyed the signal that they wanted to join the Western group. The United States, Britain, Germany and France assured the former Soviet Union under this situation that after the disintegration of Warsaw Treaty Organization , they would not provide NATO qualifications to Poland and other countries for joining NATO. However, after the collapse of the former Soviet Union, NATO began its first eastward expansion in 1997, accepting Poland, Hungary, and , Czech . NATO has expanded eastward five times, and its member states have increased from 16 before the collapse of the Soviet Union to 30 in 2020. The former Soviet Union's franchise republic has joined NATO one after another. In September 1993, Yeltsin wrote to the then-US President Clinton , starting with "Dear Bill" (the relationship between the two was originally very good), expressing his dissatisfaction with the US and the West for the first time, but he did not receive a reply.

From Yeltsin's paratroopers airborne to occupy Kosovo airport in 1999, to Putin's recovery of Crimea in 2014, and to Putin's order invasion of Ukraine this time, it is a clear line. Putin, who was once as pro-US as his mentor Yeltsin, started from Putin's re-appointment as president after Putin's "double transfer" in 2012, reversing his political tendencies and running wildly on the road of Emperor Pu. NATO's eastward expansion compressed Russia's strategic space, which is of course an important reason, Putin's move is not just for Ukraine not to enter NATO, but not only to withdraw offensive weapons from new members of NATO, but to reset the security order in Europe after the Cold War , and even laying the foundation for Russia's future dominance in the territory of Eurasia, at least one of them. Dreams can be far and wide, but this is obviously not something that Guangdong Province GDP can support.

Can Russia directly invade Ukraine even if it is wronged? NATO's new members have actively applied to join, and so is Ukraine. These countries have applied to join NATO, which is a great extent to which they feel the threat from Russia. In any case, from the perspective of international law , Russia's invasion of Ukraine violated Article 2 of the " United Nations Charter " and was not self-defense of Article 51 of the United Nations Charter (if you are interested in further researching the right to self-defense, you can check this link https://legal.un.org/repertory/art51.shtml). The Secretary-General of the United Nations pointed out the nature of the Russian behavior at the first time and strongly condemned it. The Security Council had to bypass Russia's permanent membership through procedural votes to launch an emergency special meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, which all demonstrated the strong denial of Russian behavior by the post-war international order.

The United States is bound to severely impose sanctions on Russia, while EU has escalated sanctions with difficulty. Putin declared the first wave of sanctions after the declaration of war, cutting off the EU's technology and market entrance to Russia and freezing Russia's assets in Europe. Russia's assets in Europe are estimated to be US$1.4 trillion, while Russia's foreign exchange reserves have 12% in France, 9.5% in Germany, and 7% in the United States. Unlike China's foreign exchange reserves with 1.2 trillion yuan, which is , U.S. bonds, , Russia's foreign exchange reserves are all real money.However, the first wave of sanctions preventing Russian bank from entering the European market was mainly slogan, because Germany, Italy, Hungary and other countries opposed kicking Russian banks out of the SWIFT system. However, in the second wave of EU sanctions, all EU member states agreed to ban some Russian banks, mainly national banks , using the SWIFT system. The difficulty for EU member states lies in their dependence on Russia's energy. But as spring blooms, everything will be different. On the one hand, the demand for people's livelihood and energy in EU countries will be greatly reduced. On the other hand, the permafrost in Ukraine will melt, and Russia's mobile forces will be unable to move forward. France's weapons are constantly entering Ukraine. Germany has changed its attitude, from providing only a few riot helmets and field hospitals to providing Ukraine with anti-tank missile and other weapons of destruction.

Yesterday afternoon, Zelinsky announced that he would welcome the international volunteer army . Volunteer Army, you know, think about the war on the Korean Peninsula in the 1950s. Zelensky agreed to hold peace talks with Russia just after the deadline was out of date. I don’t know if it was delaying the tactics, but it was indeed the interest of time on Ukraine. After this battle, the psychological trauma of the people of the two countries is difficult to heal, the two countries become even more disconnected, and the Greater Russia chauvinism goes in the opposite direction. As the origin of Kievan Rus , after fierce street fighting, can it still be the same as the ancestral roads in the past? I hope that both sides can truly pass this talks, stop fighting and in the name of the people. As for nuclear power, it is really not easy to move. On January 3, 2022, the leaders of China, the United States, Russia, France and Britain, were signed specifically for tearing up?

Sino-US relations are less than fifty years ago. Are China and Russia back-to-back relationships not between allies and allies winning the lawsuit? Putin's move to Beijing on February 4 made China even more passive after Russia launched a war. Today, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Zakharova said again that Russia has friends in the world, especially China. Speaking of which, among Russian friends, only China has the strength. Looking back at fifty years, it has to be said that extraordinary strategic wisdom is needed at every critical moment in history.

For Chinese people as citizens of the world, this Russian-Ukraine war, intelligence war, information war, public opinion war, and cyber war are equally fierce as military struggles. While both sides control the scope of activities of traditional media reporters, various information smoke bombs are flying all over the sky. We can use this opportunity to improve citizens' awareness and develop a pair of insights to see through the fog and discover the truth in massive information.