[ Introduction ] The situation of Ukraine suddenly changed. According to CCTV News, after the Russian Federation Security Conference, the State Duma, the Russian Federation Commission , , , , , , , , , , , , , , requested , Putin to recognize the independence of the Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic, on February 21, 2022 local time, Russian President Putin delivered a national video speech, announcing his recognition of the two places as independent countries and signed relevant agreements and presidential decrees. What exactly is the reason that makes Russia do this? Since Biden came to power, the geopolitical game between the United States and Russia has become increasingly fierce in Ukraine. Why do you have to use Ukraine as a game?
This article believes that the Ukrainian crisis is actually a new round of adjustments to the international situation after the Cold War . Because of its unique geopolitical status, Ukraine is promoting a long-term battle between major powers in the world with the momentum of " butterfly effect ". From the perspective of the United States, the memory of the Cold War, the hostility and defense towards Russia made the United States neither want Russia to intervene in Ukraine in military affairs nor the Ukrainian crisis to ease smoothly. It needs to use the pawn of Ukraine to restrain Russia, create and promote the conflict between Russia and Europe, making EU more dependent on the United States in terms of security, thereby achieving the effect of weakening Russia and Europe at the same time. In Russia, military intervention in Ukraine is a defensive counterattack when a country faces security threats. Russia will never tolerate the United States' political infiltration to include Ukraine into the EU, thereby undermining the "European Union" dominated by Russia. This plan aims to achieve market integration and resource integration among CIS countries and reshape Russia's status as a regional power, and Ukraine, which has a good manufacturing foundation, is the most critical link.
This article also analyzes the inspiration of the Ukrainian crisis to China at present. In an era where the United States intervenes everywhere but cannot solve the problem and leads to chaos, China, which is also surrounded by the United States, also needs to think about how to become a constructive force to change the existing international order that is unfavorable to itself and emerging market countries.
From 2014 to the present, Ukraine - a country that was originally inconspicuous - has become the focus of global discussion. In February 2014, Ukrainians overthrew former president Yanukovych through street revolution. Then, the plot quickly unfolded and reached a climax: First, with the intervention of Russian military forces, Crimea declared independence in the referendum and joined the Russian Federation, and the eastern Ukrainian armed forces began to seek a separation movement aimed at breaking away from Ukraine, resulting in the outbreak of Ukrainian civil war.
To this day, everything in this country seems to be out of control. Not only is the eastern part of the world trapped in intermittent war, but it has also lost the ability to control its own destiny in the mutual competition between major powers and has become a chess piece and cannon fodder for the game between major powers. Although not many people really care about where Ukraine itself is going, the competition that happened to it objectively affected a new round of adjustments to the international situation after the Cold War. The "butterfly effect" of the Ukrainian crisis is promoting a long-term contest and consumption between major powers in the world, affecting the reorganization of relations between major powers.
▍The Ukrainian crisis behind Russia and the Western world
The Ukrainian conflict is not only involved in the relationship between Kiev and the eastern region, but also an escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but also a contest between Russia and the United States. The Ukrainian civil war not only stems from the internal division caused by the pro-Western government's "border selection" policy that came to power after the February Revolution of "", but also a dispute between Russia and the United States. There is evidence that both Russia and the United States have been deeply involved in the Ukrainian conflict since the February Revolution. The United States is the participant of the "February Revolution" and an external supporter of the Kiev regime in the civil strife; and the Crimean referendum and the separation movement of the eastern Ukrainian armed forces are influenced by Russia.Russia provided weapons and equipment for the militia in eastern Ukraine, and Putin also recognized that the Russian "volunteer army" entered the eastern Ukraine region to fight. The United States and NATO have provided a lot of weapons and equipment to the Ukrainian government forces, and NATO " mercenary " has also appeared in the Ukrainian government forces. The United States trains Ukrainian government forces on the one hand, and plans to send at least 300 soldiers to Ukraine. The conflict between Russia and the United States in Ukraine has gradually moved from behind to front. Not long ago, Obama admitted that the United States had political intervention in the Ukrainian regime change in the February Revolution and was considering publicly providing deadly weapons to Ukraine; and Putin also admitted in his latest interview that Crimea's entry into Russia was the organization and planning behind the Russian government.
The Ukrainian issue is the firing point of the long-term contradiction between Russia and the Western world dominated by the United States and the United States. Behind its crisis is the historical entanglement between the United States and Russia in the post-Cold War. Without this background, it is difficult for us to understand the struggle points of the Ukrainian conflict in depth. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia, in its first decade, eagerly hoped to integrate into the American-dominated Western world. Although the comprehensive Westernization policy implemented by Yeltsin has allowed Russia to pass a decade of bleakness that cannot be looked back on, Putin has not given up his efforts to establish close relations with the West in the first two terms. During the honeymoon period between Putin and Bush Jr.'s administration, Russia strongly supported the United States' counter-terrorism strategy and focused a large amount of diplomatic resources on strengthening relations with the West. In a NATO speech, he frankly expressed Russia's thoughts: "We have not gained any benefit from confrontation with the world. Russia is returning to the big family of civilized countries. What she needs most is that her opinions are listened to and her national interests are respected."
However, a diplomatic and military-enforceable Russia has always been a concern for the United States, and its sphere of influence radiates to surrounding CIS countries and becomes the dominant force, the United States cannot tolerate it, even if this does not challenge the United States' global hegemony. The memory of the US strategic community of the Cold War and the resulting hostility and defense towards Russia made the United States miss the opportunity to incorporate Russia into the Western international system. So we see that the United States ignored the "NATO non-expanding eastward" commitment made to Russia when the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, and gradually eroded the space and sphere of influence of the former Soviet Union. Eastern Europe and The three Baltic countries have been included in the EU and NATO successively. The Bush administration announced unilateral withdrawal from the US-Russia Treaty on Restricting Resistance to the Anti-Ballistic Missile System , and then established an anti-missile and radar monitoring system covering the entire territory of Russia in Polish and Czech , destroying the strategic nuclear balance between the two countries. At the same time, what Russia cannot tolerate is that the United States is trying to control the regime of CIS countries through political infiltration and color revolution. In 2003, the United States supported the pro-Western Saakashvili to come to power through the " Rose Revolution "; from 2004 to 2005, it was the same in Ukraine, which helped promote the " Orange Revolution " to support the administration of Yushenko. Russia, which is in the recovery period of its strength, has adopted more patience or moderate and restrained protests and countermeasures against the above-mentioned offensive strategy of the United States. But in the eyes of Putin's government and most Russians, the US's behavior completely ignores Russia's security concerns and the reasonable demands of regional powers for its surrounding areas, and constantly squeezes and weakens Russia's strategic space for survival and development. Before the outbreak of this Ukrainian conflict, the basis of strategic trust in Russia-US relations had long been vanished over the years.
Ukraine incident became the fuse for the rapid deterioration of Russia-US relations, turning Russia's offensive against the United States in the surrounding areas from a moderate boycott to a tough counterattack, because the United States challenged the Putin administration's strategic bottom line in two dimensions. First, Russia cannot sit idly by and watch the political situation of the West in its surrounding strategic buffer zone, making it possible for NATO to expand to threaten its border security to CIS countries, and in particular, it cannot give the United States any opportunity to build Ukraine into a military bridgehead to contain Russia. Although the surface cause of the "February Revolution" was that Yanukovych hindered Ukraine's pace of joining the EU, the EU and NATO cannot be simply confused, and Ukraine has non-aligned domestic legislation, the lack of strategic trust between Russia and the United States and the historical experience of the previous inclusion of Eastern Europe and the Baltic Three Kingdoms (and the unsuccessful Georgia ) into the Western system, Russia's security anxiety about Ukraine being included in NATO is obvious, because once the Ukrainian government turns to the West and becomes a "puppet" of the United States, it will be difficult for it to independently decide its foreign policy.
Secondly, in the view of the Putin government, the United States is eager to include Ukraine into the EU in order to undermine the "European Union" dominated by Russia. The "Eurasian Union" is Putin's important commitment in his third term, hoping to achieve market integration and resource integration among CIS countries and reshape Russia's status as a regional power. Ukraine, with a population of 45 million and a good manufacturing base, is the most critical link. The United States and the West regard the "Eurasian Union" plan as an embodiment of Russia's ambition to restructure the Soviet Empire. The United States' global hegemony cannot accommodate Russia's dream of a regional power that it refuses to give up. This is also a structural contradiction between the United States and Russia.
The Western world describes Russian military intervention in Ukraine as an aggressive expansion, but in Russia, it is a defensive Jedi strike against the country as a regional power when its strategic buffer zone is approached by invasion. Putin's government responded to Western economic sanctions with harsh countermeasures, formulated new military norms to redefine national security threats, announced the suspension of the implementation of the Conventional Forces of Europe, and even threw out the deterrence of "Russia is a nuclear power", which all showcased Russia's strategic will on the Ukraine issue. On the issue of Crimea and Ukraine, most Russians stand on Putin's side, believing that his choice has safeguarded the security and interests of the country and is willing to work with the government to overcome the difficulties of Western sanctions. In the eyes of Russians with strong national sentiment, the United States' intervention in Ukraine, its disagreement with Russia-Ukraine relations, and its malice to weaken Russia are unforgivable. According to the poll results, the United States has become the number one enemy country in the hearts of Russians, which fully demonstrates the social basis of Putin's government's strategic determination. The Putin government and Russian society seem to be mentally prepared to respond or endure long-term Western sanctions.
From the perspective of the United States, it does not want the Ukrainian crisis to ease smoothly, and it is even more unwilling to resolve it according to political arrangements that are favorable to Russia. The United States needs to use Ukraine to restrain Russia, create and promote conflicts between Russia and Europe, use Europe to weaken Russia's strength, and make Russia and Europe opposite and consume. Ukraine conflict changed NATO's relationship with Russia from post-Cold War cooperation to confrontation. At the NATO summit on September 4, 2014, Russia was explicitly identified as NATO's "opponent" for the first time since the end of the Cold War; Russia subsequently revised its military norms and listed NATO and the United States as the main threat to Russia's national security. Crimea incident and the Ukrainian crisis further collapsed the already very fragile strategic mutual trust between Russia and the United States, and this situation is unlikely to change substantially in the short term.
Ukraine conflict also triggered subtle changes in the relationship between Russia, Europe and the United States and Europe. From the United States' successful use of the Malaysia Airlines MH17 incident as an opportunity to force Europe, Japan and Australia to impose severe sanctions on Russia, it can be seen that in terms of major power relations, Europe does not have the ability to change or influence the US's decision-making, and the United States still maintains the ability to make its Western allies "select side stations". Putin has regarded Europe as the top priority of his diplomacy for many years, especially in the three troika Putin-Schroeder-Chilakhscher-Chirac, which established tacit cooperative relations in international affairs with Germany and France, which to a certain extent restricted the global unilateral hegemony policy of Bush Jr. 2. This good interaction continues to the private relationship with the current leaders of Germany and France.However, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, the EU, which lacks military autonomy and takes the overall situation of the Atlantic Alliance as its first strategy, chose a policy towards Russia that cooperates with the interests of the United States, although there is helplessness and dissatisfaction in this.
However, the Ukrainian crisis is not enough to shake the basic relationship between Russia and Europe. There is no structural political contradiction between Russia and Europe, but on the contrary, the economic ties are very close. The economic losses caused by Western sanctions on Russia are mainly borne by EU countries, and most EU countries do not want to consume themselves in sanctions. EU countries have lost tens of billions of dollars to the Ukraine conflict, which is undoubtedly a worse injury to the European economy, which has been stagnant for two years. Nowadays, the problems of Greek and religious extremism are the main problems that plague Europe. Major European countries such as Germany, France, Italy, and Spain are unwilling to bear the burden of Ukraine, and are even more unwilling to confront Russia for this. Russia took advantage of the differences within the EU on the Russian-Ukrainian issue to seek easing relations with European countries, and differentiated it within, creating conflicts between these countries and the United States. Through the Ukrainian crisis, the United States successfully established Russia as a target in Europe and strengthened the security dependence of EU countries on the United States, but the trust relationship between the United States and Europe is developing in the opposite direction, because while the United States is trying to weaken Russia, Europe's strength and status are also weakened.
▍ Ukraine crisis on China-Russia relations and the US Asia-Pacific policy
We set our sights away from Europe, which is now in a quasi-Cold War state. Will the continued Ukraine crisis and the deterioration of US-Russia relations affect the positioning of the US Asia-Pacific and China strategy? Some people believe that if the Ukrainian conflict falls into a long-term tug-of-war, the United States may adjust its current "return to Asia" strategy, which focuses on containing China. The author believes that this possibility is not very high. From a realistic political perspective, the structural contradiction between China and the United States based on the changes in strength is more important than the strategic contradiction between the United States and Russia. The intensification of US-Russia conflict is to a certain extent due to the US strategic community's inertia of Russia's Cold War thinking and the Putin government's overly sensitive to the security of surrounding geopolitical buffer zones. However, there is no misjudgment of strategic intentions between China and the United States. China, with rising strength, is trying to seek an international status corresponding to this, hoping to change the unreasonable international order, which is exactly what the United States is worried about and unacceptable.
Therefore, the United States' policy toward China in the Asia-Pacific region and the policy of continuing to weaken Russia in Europe will be in parallel. In order to avoid weakening the dominance in strategic key areas, the United States has tried its best to prevent Sino-Japanese cooperation in Asia, while in Europe it has tried to prevent Russia and the EU from reaching strategic reconciliation and mutual trust. The United States, whose relative strength declines, is promoting the opposition between mainstream international and regional powers and China and Russia, in order to maintain the legitimacy of its dominance in the Asia-Pacific and Europe, which is destructive rather than constructive for regional cooperation and development. In addition, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, NATO, led by the United States, continued to expand eastward, continuously eroding Russia's strategic space in the post-Soviet era until the conflict broke out on Russia's last and most important Russian-Ukrainian border defense line. This is also a warning to China that the United States has deep-rooted realist geopolitical thinking when dealing with major power relations with security and self-help capabilities, whether this idea is reflected in hard checks and balances dominated by military or soft checks and balances dominated by international economic rules. The contradiction between the international ecology of the group political and international ecology led by China and Russia and the United States has become one of the important foundations for strategic cooperation between the two countries.
In addition to the pressure from the international system dominated by the United States, similar emotions towards the West are also one of the reasons why China and Russia are approaching. Both countries have hoped and worked hard to make themselves recognized and equally accepted by the mainstream international community, but the Western world dominated by the United States cannot tolerate the different ideas held by nation-states that have similar demands to them as they do, and cannot accommodate the development model of major countries based on their own characteristics and the way in which they manage society. The United States and Europe are accustomed to viewing China and Russia with a set of universal standards and a way of thinking that is either a friend or an enemy. They interfere in the internal affairs of the two countries in the name of human rights and other years, and use the advantages of international discourse power to smear and demonize the social and political top leaders of China and Russia. Although Russia in democratic transformation has its own problems, its basic social values and political systems do not have essential differences with the West. The United States and the Western world still support opposition forces within it due to dissatisfaction with Putin's strong-manner rule. In comparison, although China and Russia have different religious, cultural and political systems, they have formed a major power interactive relationship of mutual respect, equality and independence. This nature of China-Russia relations is different from the asymmetry between the United States and its European and Japanese allies. The two countries do not impose on others or point fingers, but rather respect each other's sense of autonomy, take into account the geopolitical core interests of each other as major powers, and rely on each other in the major festivals. At the same time, today's Sino-Russia relations are different from the Sino-Soviet subordinate relationship established on the "friendship" of ideology in the 1950s, but an equal and mutual assistance relationship based on the strategic interests of normal countries.
China and Russia maintain and deepen a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership is the general trend and direction of efforts for a long period of time in the future. This is not only a response to the United States' Cold War mentality of viewing relations between major powers and its long-term "hugging together to keep warm" in the face of the arrogance and prejudice of the Western world, but also in line with the real and long-term interests of China and Russia. China-Russia strategic cooperation and interest cooperation relationship are long-term and structural, with an internal foundation. The Ukrainian crisis is just a catalyst for promoting Sino-Russia relations. It has alleviated the resistance to Sino-Russia cooperation in Russia and is not a turning point that changes the ideas of the top leaders of the two countries. Putin had a strategic idea of revitalizing Russia with the east wind of China's rise in his second term, but his domestic resistance was great, and strategic mutual trust between China and Russia had not come naturally. After taking office, the Chinese national leader visited Russia for the first time. The two leaders were very close to their views on the general trend of the world and their personal temperament. Deepening China-Russia strategic cooperation reached consensus and mutual trust at the top of the two countries. Since then, under rare high-frequency meetings and close communication between high-level leaders of China and Russia, China-Russia strategic cooperative relations have been rapidly promoted. Although obstacles to deepening China-Russia relations exist objectively and the trust between the two countries needs to be strengthened, after the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis, Russia's eastward strategy and China's westward strategy began to show more and more intersections.
From the perspective of the real economy, first of all, the Ukrainian crisis and Western sanctions may bring about changes in the global energy landscape, and the layout of Russia's energy export market has begun to shift to Asia. For China, which has huge energy demand and seeks to diversify risks through multiple channels, it needs to seize this opportunity. China has signed a difficult natural gas agreement with Russia for more than a decade. Secondly, Western sanctions will force Russia to form an increasingly deep interdependence with China in the financial field. Nowadays, Russian business tycoons have begun to change to UnionPay cards, gradually converting more US dollars into Hong Kong dollars and depositing them in Chinese banks in Hong Kong, China. China and Russia have begun to increase the scale of local currency settlement in bilateral trade, investment and lending. Russia's scope of accepting RMB payments is expanding, which will have an important impact on the internationalization of the RMB. Once again, Western sanctions have caused the Putin government to begin to promote the diversification of the Russian market in economic strategy, and its economic countermeasures against Europe involve large-scale transfer of agricultural product markets and may continue to expand to the industrial product field. China-Russia economic and trade cooperation will also be rapidly expanded and penetrate into many fields such as high-speed rail construction, agriculture, military technology, satellite navigation systems, ports, logistics, IT industry, manufacturing, nuclear power, etc.
Since China and Russia also have common strategic demands that transcend economic interests, the relationship between the two countries is increasingly more than mutual benefit and win-win and practical cooperation at the purely economic level. In the past, the interaction model of one-time "rewarding" based on short-term mutual utilization has changed, and a long-term strategic cooperative relationship with a foundation of mutual trust is being formed.China and Russia face the joint force of the United States-led alliance system in East Asia and Europe respectively. East China Sea , South China Sea and Ukraine are just specific points and appearances of struggle. The core problem behind it is that, as a military self-help power with a long history and civilization tradition, neither China nor Russia can accept the decision of its own internal affairs and foreign policies according to the path set by the United States and the Western world. Therefore, it is necessary to counter the US military alliance system and the resulting political grouping international ecology to fight for the diversity of cultural traditions and civilizations.
From a defensive perspective, China and Russia's strategic mutual assistance can give each other certain support and solidarity when facing the reality and public opinion pressure of Western countries, or when playing with political groups led by the United States, at least play a political balance role, and avoid being isolated in major power relations. In the Ukrainian crisis, Chinese officials have been working hard to promote the easing of Russia-Ukrainian relations and the situation in Ukraine. When the West imposed economic sanctions on Russia, political isolation and public opinion suppression, China has always opposed this group of political encirclement and given strong support to Russia. In the future, China may face difficulties similar to Russia on the issue of Ukraine on Taiwan, the South China Sea and the Diaoyu Islands in the international community, and it also needs to have partners at the major power level.
From the perspective of positive action, we see that the United States, which has declined relatively strongly, has gradually lost the ability and willingness to provide more constructive public products for the prosperity of the world and the region. The United States used issues such as the South China Sea, Diaoyu Islands and Ukraine to promote disputes in Asia and Europe, and triggered the "Arab Spring" series of revolutions in Middle East , West Asia, and North Africa , but was unwilling to bear the corresponding responsibilities afterwards. So, in an era when the United States intervenes everywhere but cannot solve the problem and so chaos is caused, In a period when a big country suspicion and restrains each other and the process of regional integration is thus blocked, the question China and Russia need to think about is, how can they become constructive forces to change the existing international order that is unfavorable to themselves and emerging market countries? This requires that the cooperation between the two countries is not limited to bilateralism, but also requires further uniting regional powers such as India, Brazil, and South Africa, and play a greater role under the cooperation mechanism of emerging market countries such as BRICS countries. At the same time, comprehensively deepen cooperative relations in multilateral cooperative organizations such as SCO , Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation , iaxin, Asia-Europe Conference and other multilateral cooperation organizations.
As the world's second largest economy, China took the lead in establishing AIIB in 2015, becoming an alternative choice for AIIB, led by Japan and the United States, and signed bilateral currency agreements with more and more countries and economy for direct payment of RMB. Russia, as the world's second largest oil exporter, has begun to promote the de-dollarization process of oil, and the BRICS Development Bank has also opened, and the United States' financial hegemony status will continue to loosen. At the same time, the "Belt and Road" promoted by China and the " Eurasian Economic Union " that Russia is promoting are also establishing cooperation docking points. The two countries have basically reached strategic mutual trust on this issue. It's all just the beginning.
Source: WeChat public account "Cultural Zongheng" (original title: Putin suddenly acknowledged the real reason why Ukraine is independent | Culture Zongheng)
Author: Gao Cheng
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