Bloomberg economist Anna Huang and Eliza Wenger have established an economic model to predict the direction of the US economy in the next 12 months. The results show that the probability of an economic recession in the United States will reach 100% in the next year.

Bloomberg Economist Anna Huang and Eliza Wenger established an economic model , predicting the direction of the US economy in the next 12 months. The results show that the probability of an economic recession in the United States will reach 100% in the next year. There are many similar predictions for

, including those of economists and financial practitioners. They analyzed the US economy from various angles and concluded that the US is very similar, that is, the US is likely to fall into an economic recession, and this time is next year.

In fact, there is no need for professionals to analyze or interpret anything. In addition to ordinary Americans, they can judge that the economic situation in the United States is very bad and they cannot feel any signs of improvement at all. It is only a matter of time before they fall into recession.

A poll showed that about 70% of Americans believe that the future of the United States is bleak and will be in a dangerous situation.

Previously, according to data released by the United States, the US economic growth rate was negative for two consecutive quarters, indicating that the US economy has experienced a technical recession, but the US authorities do not recognize this and try to redefine the concept of a technical recession to deny it is falling into a recession.

At that time, the reason given by the United States was that the specific data on economic growth in the second quarter was evaluated and had not been officially released, so we cannot draw conclusions. When the data is officially released, the negative value may become a positive value.

However, the result is now out, although it is better than the estimated data, it is still negative. On the technical level, this blocked the mouth of the Biden authorities.

After the data cannot be changed, White House tries to guide the public's attention to other directions, such as the employment issues that Americans are most concerned about. Biden has been boasting that he has created many jobs.

But the real situation is not the case. Jobs have indeed increased compared to before, but from the data, it seems that the limit has been reached, because from the development in 2021 to the present, the average monthly new jobs have been declining.

In other words, the employment situation that has been recovering is difficult to sustain and will become more and more severe as time goes by.

In the inflation field that Americans pay close attention to, Biden has no good idea. It is hike rate , and hike rate hike rate again and again. Rate hikes can indeed allow the United States to reap wealth, but it is not a long-term solution. The aggressive interest rate hikes in the United States have seriously affected the economy of a vote of allies. If they continue to increase, the United States' allies will not be able to sit still and wait for death.

In addition, aggressive interest rate hike measures will also affect the growth of jobs, which is the main reason why the data on new jobs continue to decline.

In other words, increasing jobs and suppressing inflation is contrary to that. Radical interest rate hikes can alleviate inflation in the United States, but inhibit the increase in jobs, because interest rate hikes will suppress people's demand. With fewer demand, fewer jobs will be. Therefore, no matter what measures the United States takes, it will be difficult for it to stabilize the momentum of the economic recession and is just struggling.

This struggle has released a very terrible signal. The reason why Biden struggles is for the midterm elections, and wants to make people hope for the future of the United States before the midterm elections and vote for Democrats. This kind of economic stimulus without benefiting democracy is harmful to the US economy.

is like pulling out seedlings to encourage growth. Biden pursues short-term interests and takes extremely short-term measures to achieve his goals. After the midterm elections are over, no matter whether the Democrats win or lose, the US economic prospects have been damaged by the Biden authorities, which will accelerate the speed of the US economic recession.

Former US President Obama once said, don’t underestimate Biden’s ability to mess up everything, and this is true. Biden’s lack of ability to develop the US economy has led to a low support rate. He has to use radical means to boost the US economy and has entered a vicious cycle. If Biden has to struggle for another two years, the US economy may completely collapse.