Source: Huaguang.com
It is best to prepare before the rain and not dig a well when you are thirsty. Tsai Ing-wen has less than two years left to step down on May 20, 2024. A series of recent signs show that in order to allow himself to "security in the village" and land smoothly, and to avoid repeating the mistake of Chen Shui-bian being imprisoned immediately after leaving office, Tsai Ing-wen is taking four-pronged approaches: obey the command of the United States, relax the "Karai", relieve the corruption case of the Ban family, and the "British Group" are fully responsible for controlling the layout of the two elections in 2022 and 2024.
obeys the rules and obeys the command of the United States, and everything is followed by the command of the United States
first say everything is followed by the command of the United States. This mainly refers to Tsai Ing-wen's actions in cross-strait policies.
As we all know, the Taiwan authorities are just a pawn of the United States. Their cross-strait policies are not decided by themselves, but are led by the United States, and the United States plays the guided chess, and must be in line with the interests of the United States. Whenever Taiwan’s leaders are elected, no matter blue and green candidates, they must go to the United States for an interview without exception, and cross-strait policy is a key test question. If Taiwanese politicians dare not listen to the will of the United States, they may be punished by the United States and fall into a mess at any time, Chen Shui-bian is an obvious example.
It is said that flies do not bite seamless eggs. Chen Shui-bian will be sentenced to prison after leaving office. First of all, of course, he is insatiable and corrupt when he was in power; secondly, he offended his "master" Uncle Sam and refused to obey the command of the United States. When Chen Shui-bian was in office, he ignored the political reality of the United States' need for China to cooperate with its global anti-terrorism, and frantically collided with cross-strait relations, and was only concerned about his own pleasure. Therefore, he was designated by the United States as a "trouble Maker". In the middle and late period of Chen Shui-bian's second term, various clues of corruption were exposed. Taiwanese public opinion generally believed that this was the "black information" and "blood droplets" thrown out by the United States in order to punish Chen Shui-bian. Then there was the "Million-People Anti-Bian Movement" that caused a sensation around the world, and Chen Shui-bian was sentenced to prison after resigning from office.
In order to learn from Chen Shui-bian's lesson, Tsai Ing-wen can be said to obey the US in cross-strait relations after taking office, and everything depends on the US's eyes. China and the United States have been fiercely confronting each other in recent years, and bilateral relations have entered the lowest trough in more than 40 years. On the one hand, Tsai Ing-wen is the only one who takes the lead, taking various "Taiwan independence" small actions and colluding with external forces to harass and provoke the mainland; on the other hand, the United States does not want to be dragged into the Taiwan Strait War and does not want China-US relations to break down completely. Therefore, in order to avoid the situation from getting out of control, in addition to taking the lead in expressing its "not supporting Taiwan independence", Tsai Ing-wen has twice sent out the head of the foreign affairs department Wu Zhaoxie to publicly clarify that "not seeking Taiwan independence" and "not seeking resumption of diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States." Tsai Ing-wen cooperated 100% with the US's two-handed strategy against China and did not dare to step beyond the line.
As the US Democratic Party faces the upcoming midterm elections, the Biden administration recently intends to ease Sino-US relations, including taking measures such as reducing tariffs on China and increasing tariffs on China, as well as strategic suspension of aggressive progress on the Taiwan Strait issue. Based on this, although Tsai Ing-wen will still operate "anti-China" populism in 's "nine-in-one" election, she should be cautious in grasping the standards and observe the Biden administration's words and expressions at any time and act on the camera.
Relax "Karai" so that we can meet again in the future
Regarding the question of Tsai Ing-wen's relaxation of "Karai", it is actually what we say, "Be a person and stay at the front line, and meet again in the future."
Chen Shui-bian was imprisoned at the time, and many of his supporters believed that it was because of the rotation of political parties. After Ma Ying-jeou, a member of the Kuomintang, came to power, he carried out a political settlement against Chen Shui-bian. But in fact, Ma Ying-jeou was considered by the public opinion on the island to be a typical gentle, respectful, frugal, and kind "law craftsman". He did everything according to the rules, and was even criticized for having no political skills. The United States threw out evidence of Chen Shui-bian's corruption. With Ma Ying-jeou's character, the judicial system will investigate and handle the judgment in accordance with the law, and is unwilling to interfere with the political force. But the supporters of Deep Green still firmly believe that the Bian case is a "political pursuit", which is the so-called "those who believe will always believe, and those who don't believe will never believe."
According to this logic, Tsai Ing-wen realized that ensuring that the DPP continues to rule in 2024 is also one of the keys to its "safety Xiazhuang". Given the current situation of the Kuomintang's arrogance, it will be quite difficult to achieve "green space turns into blue sky" in 2024. The one with the highest support for the 2024 poll within the Democratic Progressive Party is Tsai Ing-wen’s “mortal enemy” Lai Ching-te.In other words, in the current situation where the United States needs to step up its efforts to use Taiwan as a chess piece to confront mainland China, the United States is very likely to "conditionally accept" Lai Ching-te, that is, while reducing and restraining its deep green spectrum role as a "Taiwan independence worker", the possibility of Lai Ching-te winning the DPP's primary election and finally being elected as a leader in Taiwan in 2024 is there.
There is a proverb in the West, "Politics is an art that turns impossible into possible." Although Tsai and Lai became incompatible due to the 2019 primary election, the situation was ultimately unstoppable. Tsai Ing-wen now has to face reality and has to relax her "Kai Lai" strategy.
Taiwan media published an article on July 15 to expose a so-called "insider story" of the Democratic Progressive Party, saying that Tsai Ing-wen did not dance with the British "Karai" movements, and had already let go of her heart. She sent Lai Ching-te to "visit" repeatedly, and her anxiety in "supporting the Lai sect" in 2024 has gradually faded. The article believes that former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was assassinated and died. Tsai Ing-wen sent Lai Ching-te to Japan as a special envoy to engage in "funeral diplomacy" to increase exposure for Lai. In addition, Tsai Ing-wen tried to persuade former deputy Chen Jianren to run for the mayor of Taipei to reduce the outside world's association with "the British group uses Chen Jianren to Ka Lai." The article believes that Tsai Ing-wen's series of arrangements also made the party's "supporting the ruling faction" who has always been suspicious of Tsai Ing-wen feel a little relieved, believing that Tsai Ing-wen has obviously put aside the opposition in the 2019 primary election.
To be honest, if the Taiwanese media reports are true, it is better to say that Tsai Ing-wen starts from the overall interests of the DPP and does not follow the "British" to "kill Lai" Chen Jianren, it is better to say that she shakes hands with Lai Ching-te in advance because she is afraid of being liquidated by her accomplices in the future so that she can go to the village safely in the future.
unblocked the condom of Chen and cleared the mines ahead of the election
As for Tsai Ing-wen's removal of the condom of the family's corruption case, the indicator incident was that she issued an order to the DPP's "Legislative Party Group" to decriminalize the " State Security Cases ".
Chen Shui-bian's lawsuit for more than 15 years, and the procuratorate and investigation determined that his more than NT$100 million NT$6 was "illegal use". On May 30 this year, the DPP used its number advantage to forcibly pass the regulations on decriminalization of "state confidentiality fees" in Taiwan's "legislative body". This clause soon became the basis for the Taiwan High Court to sentence Chen Shui-bian and others to "waive lawsuits" on July 15, officially helping Chen Shui-bian escape from the "state confidentiality case".
Without 2022, there is no 2024. If Tsai Ing-wen wants to control the layout of the 2024 Democratic Progressive Party primary election, she must first complete the 2022 "nine-in-one" election. As a result, she led the removal of the "specific person" Chen Shui-bian, which mainly had two political purposes. First, we appease Chen Shui-bian and his supporters, hoping that they will not make trouble in the "nine-in-one" election at the end of the year, do not sing against the DPP, and do not bring negative impacts to the election. Second, many green camp politicians and even the DPP senior executives are very afraid that the case will continue to be tried, which may bring out more inside information and cause a greater storm in the green camp. After all, Chen Shui-bian had already threatened on April 7, announcing the flow of funds on the "official security case". He also named Shi Mingde, Lin Jinchang, Ma Yongcheng and others to get the money, and emphasized that his "office expenditure is greater than his income from business income." Those who took the money but were not named were actually Chen Shui-bian who "kept a hand". The unpublished materials may be "super nuclear bombs". For these "ruling factions" or other "future stars" within the Democratic Progressive Party, those who have had a share of Chen Shui-bian's "state security expenses" expenses will of course be uneasy and everyone will be in danger. Therefore, the DPP collectively agreed to decriminalize the "state confidentiality fee" and understand the case with "historical common cause".
Further, Tsai Ing-wen has his own selfish intentions for Chen Shui-bian to get out of condom: First, Tsai Ing-wen does not rule out taking Chen Shui-bian's money. If she does not help get out of condom, will Chen Shui-bian be exposed after she leaves office? Especially if the Kuomintang is in power in 2024 and Chen Shui-bian exposes the Democratic Progressive Party to "embezzle common business", will Tsai Ing-wen be swept away? Second, Tsai Ing-wen comforts and bribes the "independence faction" in advance, hoping that both sides can be safe after leaving office.
English system attacked to control the two elections
Finally, it was mentioned that the so-called "all the city is English" at the end of the year, which means that in order to do its best to ensure that the DPP continues to be governed by the DPP in 2024, Tsai Ing-wen must first control the "nine-in-one" election at the end of this year. Therefore, in this county and city mayor election, the "British" people came out in full swing. In this way, Tsai Ing-wen believes that she can delay her power lame to the greatest extent and check and balance the most likely successor of the DPP, Lai Ching-te, and then have more bargaining chips to engage in "political transactions" with Lai Ching-te to ensure that she leaves office smoothly.
2018 was the most tragic time in the DPP county and city mayor election. Only 6 seats were won in Taiwan in 22 counties and cities. Tsai Ing-wen was forced to resign as chairman of the DPP at that time. However, less than two years later, Tsai Ing-wen was re-elected and won a record 8.17 million votes, allowing her to return to Korea again and master the party machine. Tsai Ing-wen remembers the lessons learned in 2018 and fully controls the nomination right for the "nine-in-one" election layout at the end of this year.
Recall this time the DPP nominees, whether it is Chen Chimai from Kaohsiung , Lin Zhijian from Taoyuan, Chen Shizhong from Taipei, and most counties and cities are "British" or "pro-British" people. Even though Lin Jialong, the candidate for mayor of New Taipei , who was "a little disobedient", was the leader of the second largest faction within the Democratic Progressive Party, but he was also one of Tsai Ing-wen's "four favorites". Many counties and cities have the auxiliary cadres selected by the British or New Fashion Department personnel who are allied with the British.
Therefore, Taiwanese media described the DPP's two elections in 2022 and 2024, Tsai Ing-wen was in charge. "The list of county and city mayors of the DPP is full of 'English Department'. In addition to conquering the DPP, these candidates also have to shoulder the mission of Tsai Ing-wen's party in the later period of administration and the 2024 'general election' nomination right."
To sum up, in order to be able to safely go to the village, Tsai Ing-wen cannot be said to have a long-term plan and complete calculations. However, including fake doctoral thesis copy, Yuchang case, high-end vaccine case, etc., Tsai Ing-wen is involved in a lot of controversy. No matter how many calculations are, what will happen to Tsai Ing-wen in the future? Who knows? (Haiping)
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