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-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- IDC statistics show that the total global PC shipments exceeded 300 million in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. In the PC chip industry, Intel is still the absolute leader. Although Microsoft and Intel Wintel have gradually faded their aura, Intel is still synonymous with PC processors.
A while ago, Intel released its 2020 financial report, with annual revenue reaching a record $77.9 billion, and PC-related businesses accounted for the majority. At the same time, Intel revealed at its financial report meeting that it will carry out more outsourcing plans in the future to allow other fabs to find Intel chips. 's statement undoubtedly confirms the previous rumor - Intel is in contact with TSMC and Samsung and is preparing to use their advanced process.
We all know that Intel has always used its own foundry, and its chip independent manufacturing capabilities are also Intel's core advantages in PC chips. Now, seeking the help of foundries in chip manufacturing means that Intel has finally bowed its head and even gave up its further pursuit of advanced technology, and TSMC has had the last laugh?
Intel fell behind
network, there has always been a "14nm++++" meme about Intel's process. Since 2015, Intel's 14nm process has been put into use, but to this day it is still the main process of Intel chips, and the 10nm process has been dragging on again and again. Even on the latest 11th-generation Core desktop processor, it is still a combination of 14nm CPU + 10nm core graphics. In contrast, TSMC, which popularized 7nm in 2018 and achieved large-scale mass production of 5nm in 2020, has made rapid progress in process manufacturing.
Of course, many people disagree with this direct comparison, because there are differences in the calculation methods of Intel and TSMC Samsung in process production. Simply put, under the 10nm process, Intel chip transistor density and performance are better than TSMC and Samsung. In a rough comparison, TSMC's 7nm EUV is roughly the same as Intel's 10nm.
But it is not necessary to defend Intel. Even if Tian Ji horse racing comparison method is used to compare 10nm with 7nm, Intel lags behind TSMC and Samsung. After all, Intel's 10nm is only some of its own chips to use, while TSMC's 7nm is already very mature, and 5nm will also be popularized quickly.
It is undeniable that Intel has fallen behind in the originally dominant process competition.
missed the mobile terminal and exploded, which was Intel's biggest mistake
Although Intel and TSMC have the ability to produce chips, their business models are completely different. Intel's chip manufacturing is basically only for its own chip products, while TSMC does not design and sell chips, but specializes in foundries for other chip manufacturers. On the surface, Intel's model is more stable, with chip iteration and process progress complementing each other, and relying on process advantages to build technical barriers that competitors are difficult to overcome.
But the rapid arrival of the mobile Internet era gave Intel a heavy blow. The rapid popularization of smartphones and the rapid expansion of market size have had a huge impact on the traditional PC market. Compared with computer products, smartphones can cover a wider range of scenarios and more applicable people. Even if the overall market has shrunk in recent years, the annual shipments can still reach 1 billion, while PCs are only around 300 million. A large number of manufacturers such as ARM, Apple, Samsung, and TSMC have all gained this wave of dividends.
At present, Apple's market value is about US$2.39 trillion, Samsung Electronics is US$501.8 billion, TSMC is approximately US$551.5 billion, while Intel's market value is only US$217.6 billion, which is only slightly higher than Qualcomm.
It should be noted that fabs are extremely expensive and TSMC, which has gained dividends from mobile terminals, can get a steady stream of large orders, and a large amount of funds can continue to be invested in the research and development of advanced processes. At the same time, massive orders dilute R&D costs, yield rate, leakage rate and other problems that are prone to occur in the production and manufacturing process of chips. In the process of a large number of chip foundry, a large amount of data and experience can be accumulated to continuously improve rapidly, and these conditions are obviously not available to Intel, which is produced and sold by itself.
In other words, Intel is surpassed by TSMC in process and process, and the fundamental reason is that it is caused by the huge volume gap between the PC industry and the mobile terminal market. In fact, Intel is not without ideas about the rapidly rising smartphone market. Intel has made many efforts to enter this market.
From the era of touch screen smartphones, Intel tried mobile processors, and Xscale based on ARM architecture was used in handheld phones and mobile phones. However, the smartphone cake at that time was too small and Intel faced challenges from many competitors. In 2006, Intel sold Xscale to Marvell and bid farewell to the mobile phone market.
After entering the era of touch screen smartphones, Intel used its Atom product line to make mobile phone SoCs such as Z2580 and adopted them for brands such as Lenovo. However, the Intel processor with the X86 architecture is not performing well on mobile phones. The poor compatibility, reduced simulation performance, and increased power consumption caused by different architectures have put Intel versions of mobile phones at a disadvantage in the competition.
Missed the mobile market, which can be said to be a major strategic mistake by Intel. When Apple and Qualcomm broke apart in the past few years, Intel had the opportunity to return to the mobile market through baseband chips. Unfortunately, Intel did not seize this opportunity. The poor signal performance of the two generations of iPhone XS and iPhone 11 series completely made Apple lose confidence, and Intel's 5G baseband business was also sold to Apple.
Intel is behind in process processes, and the reasons may be capital investment, strategic direction, etc., but the most fundamental thing is still caused by the general trend of the weakening of the PC industry and the rise of the mobile market. Will
take the old path of AMD?
It should be clear that although Intel will hand over some chip products to third-party wafer fabs, it does not mean that it will follow AMD's old path - selling the chip manufacturing department. As mentioned earlier, Intel's advanced process processes have lagged behind TSMC and Samsung, but looking at the global market, except for these two companies, Intel's wafer production capacity is still one of the best. Moreover, the chip production business is expensive and has a long return cycle. It is easy to give up for a while, but it is extremely difficult to rebuild from 0 to 1.
AMD sold its own Grofonte to the Arab consortium, which was largely due to AMD's financial difficulties at that time. He was crushed by Intel in the PC chip market and could only rely on antitrust laws to prosper. It is worth mentioning that the first Ryzen processor that brought AMD to rise again is still manufactured by "ex-girlfriend" Grossfield. However, the level of money-burning of wafer foundry technology is too exaggerated, and even Middle Eastern oil tycoons can't hold on.
In 2018, Grofontein announced that he would give up R&D investment in the 7nm process and focus on 14nm and 12nm. This change made AMD turn its attention to TSMC, obtaining Ryzen chips with 7nm process, becoming more confident when competing with Intel. The process dividends brought by the rapid development of mobile terminal were gained by AMD, which produces PC chips, and launched a more severe challenge to Intel . Intel suffered another critical hit due to a mobile mistake.
But even so, Intel still has an advantage in the PC market. AMD has always played the role of a challenger, but its market share has never surpassed Intel. Judging from the latest financial report data, Intel is still a big business and has no reason to give up its wafer foundry capabilities.
summary
Intel has suffered not only the rise of AMD. Last year, Apple announced that its Mac business would be moved from the Intel platform to its self-developed ARM architecture, and it was a thrust Intel into the back. Previously, Apple's annual shipment of PC products was about 20 million units, and the entire series uses Intel chips, with a share of more than 7% in the global market.
However, despite setbacks in the wafer manufacturing business, Intel still gains in other areas. For example, the autonomous driving system technology developed by Intel has opened up in the automotive market, bringing more than 300 million US dollars in revenue in Q4. Intel's data business and AI technology are also gradually developing, and it is expected to slowly get rid of its heavy dependence on PC business.
missed the outbreak of mobile terminals and the rise of AMD in the PC market. Intel has indeed not been going well in recent years. But in 2021, in addition to putting down the shelves in chip foundry, Intel will also usher in a new CEO with a technical background, and will continue to make efforts in the graphics card market in the future. It is not difficult to see that Intel is still seeking change. As consumers, we are also willing to see Intel bring more advanced and more powerful chips in 2021. It is undoubtedly a good start to cooperate with wafer foundries to use the latest process technology.
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