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Global molybdenum ore supply is limited, and there is basically no new production capacity in the world in the next three years.
Molybdenum concentrate price rose nearly 10% in a single day, hitting a new high in 14 years
According to Baichuan Information , on October 13, the price of molybdenum concentrate jumped from 3,010 yuan/ton the previous day to 3,310 yuan/ton. The single-day price rose by nearly 10%, and the price hit a 14-year high, an increase of 42% compared with the same period last year. According to previous industry media reports, on October 12, the transaction price of molybdenum concentrate in a large mine in Henan rose to above 3,300 yuan/ton, with a single-day increase of 10% to 11.33%.
Currently, the price of molybdenum concentrate has set a record high since 2009, and it is the second time in 2022 that it has exceeded 2,900 yuan. This round of rise started in August. Stimulated by the continued strong demand for steel mills to bid for , iron molybdenum, , it has risen all the way and the trend is firm. During this period, the active price increase and active procurement of some large steel mills have brought strong impetus to this round of rise.
resource hard gap. There is basically no new capacity in the next three years.
From the historical trend, under the influence of the 2008 economic crisis, the price of molybdenum fell rapidly from a high of about 4,000 yuan/ton, and showed a volatile downward trend from 2008 to 2015. Since 2016, under the tight balance of supply and demand, the price of molybdenum bottomed out and rebounded, fluctuating and strengthening. In early October this year, the price of molybdenum concentrate rose to 3,010 yuan/ton, and the price rose to 3,000 yuan/ton after 14 years.
From the perspective of demand, molybdenum inventory is still low, and as the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has entered the "Golden Steel Plants", the number of bidding in downstream steel mills has increased significantly. In September 2022, the steel recruitment volume was about 12,100 tons; as of October 10, the steel recruitment volume in October had exceeded 4,000 tons. In recent months, the number of steel rigs has exceeded 12,000 tons many times, and demand for steel rigs has been strong. About 80% of the downstream applications of
molybdenum are concentrated in the steel industry and are used to produce alloy steel , stainless steel and other excellent steels. With the continued growth in consumption in key downstream industries such as automobiles, aerospace and energy, the downstream demand for molybdenum alloy will increase.
From the supply side, the global molybdenum ore supply has limited growth, and the overall domestic and foreign output has not increased significantly. According to historical data, the global molybdenum metal supply from 2017 to 2021 has stabilized at around 300,000 tons, with an annual compound growth rate of only 0.3%. In 2021, my country's molybdenum mineral output will be about 130,000 tons, and the output will be relatively stable within five years. Most of my country's molybdenum ore are large and old mines, and it is expected that there is limited room for improvement in production capacity and output in the future. Most of the molybdenum ore resources overseas, mainly South America, are copper-molybdenum-related ore. Due to the global copper supply growth rate, the growth rate of overseas molybdenum ore will remain at a low level.
Southwest Securities believes that global molybdenum has basically no new production capacity in the next three years. The supply and demand gap in the molybdenum industry in the first half of 2022 is close to 10,000 tons. The gap in will still exist in the future. Molybdenum price is expected to start a long-term upward trend in . Aijian Securities said that considering the decline in overseas molybdenum ore grades and low capital expenditures, it is expected that the global molybdenum ore supply will grow slightly in the next three years; coupled with external disturbances such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and geopolitical , the supply side elasticity may be more severe.
concept leader's third-quarter performance doubled
Affected by the sharp rise in molybdenum concentrate prices, the leader of molybdenum ore Jinmolybdenum shares predicted that the net profit attributable to shareholders in the first three quarters of this year was between 925 million yuan and 1.025 billion yuan, an increase of about 119.71% to 143.46% year-on-year. The company said that during the reporting period, the domestic and foreign molybdenum market prices continued to improve, and the prices of major molybdenum products rose year-on-year. After the performance forecast was released, the company's stock price hit the daily limit, with a cumulative increase of more than 15% in the past two days.
. Regarding the price of molybdenum concentrate, whether the company will expand production in the future. Jinmolybdenum Co., Ltd. recently stated on the investor interaction platform that the company's production capacity of molybdenum has about 22,000 tons in one year, and there is currently no plan to invest in new mines to increase production capacity.
Jixiang Co., Ltd. also has molybdenum-related business. On the evening of the 13th, Jixiang Co., Ltd. predicted its third-quarter results, and the company expected to achieve a net profit of 120 million yuan to 180 million yuan, an increase of more than 50% compared with the same period last year; the company's semi-annual report showed that its loss exceeded 30 million yuan. The company is a large domestic molybdenum industry enterprise, and its main product is also iron molybdenum, ranking first in China.
Other molybdenum concept stocks , Luoyang Molybdenum Industry is the fourth largest molybdenum manufacturer in the world. As of the end of 2021, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry has a total of 1.305 billion tons of molybdenum ore resources in China, with an average grade of 0.119%. Dasuji molybdenum ore owned by Guocheng Mining is a large domestic molybdenum metal deposit, with a mining capacity of 5 million tons/year and has reached the production standard.
Editor: Wan Jianyi
Proofreading: Liao Shengchao
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