"Under the worst Brexit situation, the UK will usher in the most terrifying economic recession after World War II!" Bank of England President Mark Carney submitted a "Brexit Predictive Report" to the British Parliament on November 28 on behalf of the Bank of England (BoE), proposing economic forward-looking measures for the current possibilities of various Brexit routes. Carney said that based on all economic calculation models, "no matter which Brexit route is chosen, the UK's economy will be worse than if it is not." But if the UK and the EU finally move towards the extremely hard Brexit route of "No-Deal" (), under the interruption of free trade and no buffering, the UK economy in the next five years will face the worst disaster prospects such as a 10.5% GDP recession, a 30% collapse in real estate prices...
"Our work is not to expect the arrival of the best situation, but to prepare for the worst situation." Bank of England President Carney said that the "Brexit Presumption" proposed on the 28th is a model speculation made by the British Parliament to require the central bank to have various "Brexit possibilities". It uses the economic situation before the Brexit referendum in March 2016 as a speculative benchmark to provide the reference decision of the Congress and the cabinet at a "critical moment".
England's report put forward a variety of "assumptions" regarding the prospects of the UK's Brexit, including: "Britain successfully Brexit and becomes a close partner of the EU" (GDP: -1.25%), "Britain successfully Brexit, but is only a secondary close partner of the EU" (GDP: -3.75%), "Britain was in trouble and only retained part of the trade agreement with the EU" (GDP: -7%), and "Brexit disorderly Brexit, no agreement Brexit and cannot start the buffer period" (GDP: -10.25%). In
, if the UK finally enters a "disorder state" of no deal and no buffer Brexit, the pound is likely to depreciate "25%" in the first year of impact; economic growth in the next five years will continue to decline, with GDP recession of up to 10.5%, real estate prices will plummet by 30%, and the domestic unemployment rate will also climb from the current 4% to 7.5%. The overall recession expectation will not only far exceed the financial tsunami in 2008, but will also enter the "most miserable depression since World War II."
report stated that although different Brexit routes have varying impacts on the UK economy; however, no matter which path is , compared with the growth forecast of not Brexit, the UK economy is destined to be "declined for at least 5 years" as long as Brexit is Brexit. Free trade agreements with other countries will not be launched until 2023 at the earliest.
However, the speculative report of the Bank of England was condemned by the Brexit hawks in Parliament, questioning that the Bank of England "is alarmist for political operations" and intends to spread fear through "using the 'hard days' report... to escort the Brexit agreement of British Prime Minister Theresa May."
"This report is required by Congress, and the Bank of England is only a neutral travel report obligation." Carney emphasized that the UK has only less than 4 months left before the "Zero Brexit" at 11:00 pm on March 29, 2019. Although most bank units have passed the stress test and the UK's financial system is enough to cope with the worst collapse pressure of Brexit; but British small and medium-sized enterprises are likely to fall into a collective crisis under the outbreak of Brexit - because so far, 250,000 companies across the UK have said that "the company has never filled out a tariff return"; if it really encounters a no-deal and no buffer Brexit, only 14% of British small and medium-sized enterprises are able to deal with it.
"BBC" stated that the "Brexit version" reached by May and the 27 EU countries is based on EU trade and tariff regulations, and promised that both sides can extend the Brexit buffer period "at most" to July 2022; however, the opposition believes that May's version of Brexit "sets self-restrictions and makes too much concessions to the EU" on the issue of Northern Ireland's border and trade tariffs. Therefore, both Brexit hawks or European-staying parties are ready to go and are preparing to snipe the Brexit proposal ban on May's version of Brexit in the Congressional vote on December 11.
Currently, the Conservative Party cabinet led by May has 326 seats in the House of Commons of the Parliament (the total number of seats is 650, barely more than half); but within the Conservative Party alone, 81 MPs have spoken out against it.Therefore, considering the political reality, the Brexit vote on December 11 "almost destined to be unable to pass the test."
"The problem now is no longer whether Maye can convince everyone...but how the British people face the good things about Brexit after December 11?" The BBC said that if Maye's proposal on December 11 is banned by Congress, the cabinet will have three weeks of preparation time to report to Congress "what should be done next." At that time, May can certainly adjust the content of the agreement with the EU, but he may also wait for the panic to spread. Force Congress to "approve its first agreement with tears in its eyes."
"BBC" said that the most disaster prediction at present is that the UK has no agreement and no buffer Brexit on March 29 next year; as for the "second Brexit referendum" and "dissolution of parliament and restarting the general election" advocated by the market, they are mutually exclusive to the Brexit deadline day of 329 - because after the UK referendum is proposed, there must be more than 6 months of implementation preparation and publicity period, and the parliamentary election will also take at least 25 working days - In view of this, unless the EU "all 27 countries agree to the UK postponement of Brexit implementation day", both plans are no longer helpful and there is insufficient time.
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