Yesterday, Putin delivered a national speech announcing that Russia has carried out partial mobilization and recruited 300,000 reserve soldiers to participate in the war. This move means that the Russian-Ukrainian war will be further escalated.
Putin's move is not surprising. The Ukrainian counterattack some time ago has exposed the serious problems of the Russian army - not only are military technology outdated, cutting-edge weapons are scarce, but also have serious shortage of troops.
High-end equipment and intelligence are backward, and there is no easy solution to this with Russia itself. But the lack of troops can be solved entirely by mobilization.
This time the mobilization will have a very obvious effect. Now the Russian army has only 1 million people, of which contract soldiers and and conscript soldiers are about 46. The conscripts have weak combat effectiveness and cannot go abroad to participate in the war according to the law, so most of them are contract soldiers on the Ukrainian battlefield - according to various intelligence, these people are almost 200,000, accounting for half of the Russian contract soldiers. Considering that Russia has defense , NATO and other combat readiness, this is almost the limit of the number of Russian troops participating in the war.
.2 million people, and they also need to take turns to rest and recuperate, so at the same time, the maximum number of people fighting on the Ukrainian battlefield was only a little over 100,000. 100,000 troops may be enough at the beginning of the war, but with the expansion of the occupied areas, Ukraine's national mobilization and the increase in combat power under Western military aid, this number of troops is obviously insufficient - this is also an important reason why the Chinese and Russian troops performed poorly in Ukraine's major counterattack this time.
So recruitment is imperative. This time, the reserve supplement with 300,000 military experience can effectively alleviate the problem of insufficient troops. In addition, the four states, including Lugansk , Donetsk , Zaporoze , and Khlsong , will hold a referendum to Russia from September 23 to September 27. After the approval, the four states will be incorporated into Russian territory. Regardless of whether the foreign countries recognize the result of this referendum, Russia itself recognizes it. Then the conscripts who cannot go abroad to fight can be deployed to these four states. By this calculation, the total Russian army's troops on the Ukrainian battlefield will increase significantly.
Of course, the side effects of mobilization are also very great. As soon as the news came out yesterday, the Russian stock market plummeted, and the number of young people who bought air tickets abroad also increased significantly - this shows the significant impact of this move on Russia's economy and society.
The most important thing is that the four states have submitted their votes to Russia and officially become Russian territory, which means that Russia can't get rid of it in the future. Such a result also shows that there is no room for relief between Russia and Ukraine, and there is only two ways to choose from victory or defeat.
Why does Russia do this? The most fundamental reason for
is of course that Russia cannot afford to lose in this battle and even in this game. Putin has invested so much resources to bring Russia's national destiny to the gambling table and to make Europe feel in pain. If he doesn't win in the end, the consequences will be unimaginable. In addition, Putin is 70 years old and can't last for a few years. None of the next generation of politicians has the prestige of Putin. Therefore, if we cannot win this time, it will create a new situation for Russia. In the future, internal and external difficulties, Russia will really have the possibility of a second disintegration - even if it can be avoided with China's support, the geographical interests in Asia will definitely be abandoned, and they will completely lose their qualifications as chess players and become pawns.
So it is necessary to increase the price - Russia was a little arrogant in the early stage of the war and wanted to create the image of a king's army, so it was restricted and not fully prepared. But now it is clear that the previous idea was not working at all, so Putin had to bet further.
. At the technical level, choosing to increase the price at this time also has its special reasons:
is the first step to stabilize the international situation. This time Russia's game with the West is definitely not enough, and it depends on the cooperation of countries around the world, especially resource countries.The reason why resource countries are willing to cooperate is not only to weaken Western hegemony, but it is indeed beneficial to their own interests and can help them regain their voice in commodity , but they are also attracted by the West's current destiny. Russia, the leader, takes the lead, is another possibility of winning.
But all of this is based on the premise that Russia can hold on. If Russia fails, these resource countries will immediately change their minds and may even stab them back in exchange for US understanding.
At the same time, Russia's discomfort on the battlefield will seriously weaken its control over traditional spheres of influence such as Central Asia, South Caucasus , and even domestic border areas - Kazakhstan has jumped several times in the past six months, which is still when Russia has just helped them settle the riots. If Russia is really considered to be out of reach, these regions are likely to set off a wave of departure from Russia.
This time, although Ukrainian counterattack was only a battle-level victory, it did reflect that the Russian army's initiative on the battlefield was losing. If this trend is not reversed quickly, it is difficult to ensure that the above chaos will not ferment and intensify.
So Putin must increase the price immediately. Although mobilization will cause great harm to internal economic development and social operation, if people outside are dispersed, the consequences will be even more serious.
This is passive angle. From an active perspective, Putin's choice to increase his position at this time actually has his own special purpose - arrows refer to the US midterm elections.
As we all know, Putin actually doesn't want to break with the West. This time, the table was actually forced by the United States to some extent. But not everyone in the United States wants to engage in Russia - it’s just that the Democratic establishment holds Putin and the other faction’s Republican - Trump is still labeled as “Russia”.
So Putin likes Trump very much - as long as Trump makes money and doesn't want to fight, he has had trouble with his allies every day during his reign, but he has met Putin. Moreover, Trump's main target of diplomatic attack is China, and Russia is the target he has tried his best to ease. A US president like
is really too fond of Putin. Unfortunately, Trump only worked for one term, and then he was dismantled from the Taiwan Strait by new crown . When the Democratic Party of Biden came up, he immediately dragged Russia down.
Then you are Putin, what do you think? Of course, I want the Democratic Party and the establishment to get out and let the Republican Party and Trump come up - so that I have a great chance of getting Ukraine and forcing Europe to compromise in the way I want.
Of course, it is too early to say that Trump will return to power, but the midterm election is imminent. Given that the Republicans have become Trump, as long as they are allowed to control Congress, Biden will become a cripple. If he wants to support Ukraine or even hold Europe and Russia hostage, he will be greatly disturbed. Moreover, once the midterm election fails, the Democratic Party will be very dangerous in the general election two years later - both in the short term and the medium term are good for Russia.
Of course, today, Russia can have very limited direct influence on the American politics. But the Ukrainian war can still affect the political struggle in the United States to a certain extent. It is precisely because of this that Ukraine tried its best to launch a large counterattack against Russia in late August and early September - not only to reverse the situation, but also to gain political capital for Biden and the Democratic Party. When the Ukrainian counterattack was won, the important city of Ijium was regained, and Western media took advantage of the situation to exaggerate it. This has objectively had a certain effect on the election situation of Biden and the establishment.
In this case, Putin must win back the situation through a big victory - and this big victory should best occur on the eve of the midterm elections, so that it can cause the greatest harm to the Democratic establishment. After
, it is understandable that mobilization is at this point in time.It usually takes one or two months to train after the reservation is recruited, and it also takes a certain amount of time for Russian troops to be redeployed after the referendum of the four states. By doing so, it can be completed just in time on the eve of the November midterm elections. The permafrost environment in Ukraine in winter is also more suitable for the attack of the mechanized troops in . By then, Russia, which is fully prepared, can launch an attack with its superior military strength and use a big victory to maximize the killing of the Democratic Party’s midterm elections!
stabilizes the mentality of various countries and impacts the midterm elections. This should be the technical reason why Putin decided to mobilize partly at this time.
However, this also means that the Russian-Ukrainian war may become long-term - after all, the four states' referendums to Russia and the intensity of the war escalates, and the negotiation space between Russia, Ukraine and even Russia and the West completely disappears in a short period of time.
For the United States, no matter what the result of the midterm election is, as long as Biden is still in power, as long as he borrows the Russian-Ukraine war to suppress and harvest Europe, the United States will not give up the pawn of Ukraine, and Biden and the Democratic Party cannot bear the political consequences of being defeated by Russia and losing Ukraine, so they will still do everything possible to make a fuss. For Russia, although it mobilizes and increases its investment, the innate difference in national strength determines that it will find it difficult to completely defeat the Western-supported Ukrainian government with its own strength; and if China seeks China's support - not to mention that China is unwilling to offend the West for Russia now too much, even if China agrees in the end, the asking price will definitely not be cheap, and Russia must make huge concessions in Asia's geopolitical interests - and this is also something Putin is unwilling to do.
Since neither side can retreat and cannot force the other side to compromise, the long-termization of this war is inevitable. In this process, although both sides cannot win the war, they will inevitably find ways to control the initiative in the war so that they can gain an advantage after the space for renegotiation appears in the future.
Then, when will the war end? Personally, I think that the earliest time node should be in 2025 - that is, after the 2024 US election. At this time, not only did the US election end and the new president come to power, but the global economic crisis has also erupted, and the whole world is in stagflation and even depression. Given that it is impossible for a nuclear war between modern powers to break out between and , both sides are exhausted and destroyed Europe almost. If Trump was the one in power at that time, he might have negotiated with Putin.
Of course, this is just one of the possibilities. It is also possible that Trump is fucked down, the Democratic Party’s establishment continues to waste his life, and it is also possible that the Great Depression has made the international situation more turbulent, and the falling Europe has become extremist, and the war has further intensified. After all, it is only 2022 now, and no one can say how the international situation will change in the next few years. But as far as the current situation is concerned, at least before 2025, the Russian-Ukraine war will probably not end - this time point will only be postponed and will not be advanced.
This is easy to start a war, but it is difficult to end the war. As for this war, neither side had a way out, so they had to continue to waste - anyway, the West had thick meat, and could hold on; as for Russia, although its meat was not as thick as the West, it not only had a lot of resources, but also had rich Asian geopolitical interests - this was what a great country in the East dreamed of. Since Ukraine is definitely far more important to Russia than Central Asia and Far East , based on this logic, Russia doesn’t have to worry about not being able to afford it - anyway, as long as it is willing to take out enough treasures, it can always exchange everything it wants.
To sum up, the long-term war between Russia and Ukraine is inevitable!
So, what impact will this long-term war have on the world, especially China? From China's perspective, what position and measures should we take to maximize our national interests in this long-term war? Follow the WeChat official account: Marsh , Marsh Jun will continue to interpret it for you in the next section.
This article is Chapter 2270 of the Marble Overseas Wind and Cloud Series.If you like it, please use WeChat to search for the official account: Yunshi and continue to watch all Yunshi overseas articles.
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