In the afternoon of the Asian market on Monday (July 17), the US dollar/Japanese yen hovered around 112.65. Last Friday (July 14), the United States released economic data and said it was not good, and the US dollar was under overall pressure. The US dollar/JPY fell to 112.24 and the exchange rate also maintained a slight upward trend this trading day.
Drive Fute
USD/JPY last week to rise to the mid-term sideways oscillation range upper 114.50 position encountered a resistance and pullback, and the mid-term sideways of the USD/JPY continues. Judging from the hourly trend, the US dollar/JPY rose to a high last week and reversed toward the downward trend, and the current short-term direction of the US dollar/JPY turned into a downward trend. After a straight decline last Friday, the US dollar/JPY was supported at 112.25 in the short term and rebounded oversold. During the week, the strength and amplitude of the US dollar/JPY rebounded to around 112.90. It is expected that the US dollar/JPY rebound will continue to resist the short-term weakness. Short-term resistance is 113.00,113.60; support is 112.10,111.70.
UK SVSFX
USD/JPY closed at 112.53 last week, under pressure from the US dollar, which was weak. Affected by the poor U.S. inflation data, the US dollar index fell to its low this year. The US dollar/JPY closed below around 112.26, rebounding slightly before the closing, and U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly before the closing. The yield on the 10-year benchmark Treasury bond fell from 2.32% to 2.29%, and the yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell to a three-week low. Japan will start a weekly bank holiday, and market fluctuations are expected to be limited at the beginning of this week, and the Bank of Japan will announce its monetary policy on Thursday. The speech of the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda is not expected to surprise the market and will reiterate the need to maintain a loose policy and achieve the 2% inflation target. The exchange rate is expected to continue to decline, and the daily chart shows that the exchange rate remains below the 200-day moving average, above 38.2% of the recent weekly upward trend, and the Fibon retracement level 112.30. The daily chart technical indicators are extremely south-facing and will cross the midline and be in a negative area, indicating that the exchange rate is expected to continue to decline after the exchange rate falls below the above support level. The 4-hour chart shows that the exchange rate has maintained below 100SMA for the first time since mid-June. Technical indicators drive bearish momentum and remain in the negative area, indicating that the exchange rate is bearish for a long time.
Support level: 112.30 111.90 111.60
Resistance level: 112.80 113.15 113.50
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[Original title: Analysis of the exchange rate trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen today (2016.7.17)]-
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