As global central banks begin a "rate hike", the pressure on stock market selling is still increasing. At present, the performance of US stocks is the worst since 2008. "Unfortunately, the Fed will not stop hikes, and the market must digest accordingly. Even if we are not in a re

The probability of global recession has reached 98% of the stock market continues to face downside risks

As the global central banks began the " interest rate hike tide", the pressure on the stock market selling is still increasing. At present, the performance of US stock has been the worst 08.

Homrich Berg Chief Investment Officer Stephanie Lang said:

" Unfortunately, Fed will not stop hiking interest rates, and the market must digest it accordingly. Even if we are not in a recession now, it is also fast."

On Monday, S&P 500 index has fallen for the fifth consecutive trading day, technology stock suffered a heavy blow, and the Russell 2000 Small Company Index closed down 1.4%.

market concerns about economic growth have been going on for months. NDR (Ned Davis Research), the leading investment research firm in the United States, currently believes that the possibility of a global recession of is 98%, triggering a "severe" recession signal. The only other data for this model is that during the previous severe economic recession, such as 2020 and 2008-2009, the selling pressure on global stock markets is still increasing. Lang said:

"The catastrophic performance of £4 of weakens the global risk appetite and has exacerbated concerns about the imminent collapse of financial markets. But this bear market is not over yet, and if investors continue to underestimate the impact of the rapid rise in interest rates, they will see more negative news."

FBB Capital Mike Bailey, head of research at Partners, said: "

" " html interest rate hikes may continue until next spring, which is not good for bonds and high-growth stocks." Shalett, chief information officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, also said that the bear market in the U.S. stock market is not over yet, and if investors continue to underestimate the impact of the rapid rise in interest rates, they may be more "shocked". She also said that investors should take advantage of the rebound in the bear market in the fourth quarter.

Morgan Stanley , "My Wood" and Allianz chief warned at the same time: the surge in the US dollar will end in a crisis

On Monday, data released by the Federal Reserve showed that trade weighted nominal USD index broke through 202020203html set high in April . The US dollar index rose 4% in the past five days, with the gain of the largest since the peak of the new crown panic in March 2020. On the same day, the , which tracks various futures contracts for industrial metals such as oil, copper, and wheat, and foods such as wheat, fell 1.6% , setting the lowest closing price of this year's 124 since April 4. The index has fallen nearly 22% since its peak in June, erasing the gains since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.

Wall Street One of the most outspoken short sellers said that the recent rise in the US dollar is creating an "untenable situation" for risky assets, including stocks, and in the past, the strengthening of the dollar at this level has led to some kind of financial or economic crisis. The U.S. dollar index has risen 19% so far this year, while U.S. stocks have plummeted 23%.

Morgan Stanley Chief U.S. equity strategist Michael Wilson wrote in a report:

"Although it is difficult to predict such 'events', the conditions are already met."

Wilson mentioned the global financial crisis in 2008, the sovereign debt crisis in 2012 and the bursting of the technology stock bubble in 2000.

Wilson thinks the "final low" of the S&P 500 index will reach the 3000 to 3400 point level later this year or early next year. This means that there is room for 13% to fall at the midpoint of the range.

surge hurts the international sales profit of US companies. Morgan Stanley calculated that every time the dollar index rises 1% , profits will fall 0.5% . Wilson said that apart from other issues such as soaring input costs, the dollar will weaken the S&P 500's fourth-quarter earnings by about 10%.

The strategist who correctly predicted the U.S. stock market plunge this year said the response to the warning issued by FedEx earlier this month showed that general expectations have not yet reflected a huge decline in earnings.

Coincidentally, the head of Ark Investment Cathie Wood (Cathie Wood) also said a few days ago that the surge in US dollar has had a devastating impact on other parts of the world . Although the appreciation of the US dollar is conducive to reducing import costs and thereby alleviating the inflationary pressure in the United States, the United States cannot survive the global market turmoil. The blow to the global economy caused by the appreciation of the US dollar will also bring spillover risks to the United States, thus forcing the Federal Reserve to turn.

Allianz chief economic adviser Mohamed El- Erian (Mohamed A. El-Erian) also warned again on Monday about the possible catastrophic consequences of the surge in the US dollar. He pointed out that the recent strengthening of the US dollar is another manifestation of three key global changes: global central banks' tightening policies, global economic slowdown and global deflation fading. He said the possibility of these shifts making the global recession "has worryingly high." He called on the government and central banks to stop aggravating market volatility so as not to cause market chaos, a statement that is believed to be an allusion to the UK's new tax cuts and aid package.

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