After the United States announced the rate hike at 75 points in the early morning yesterday, the global financial market fluctuated violently, the stock market generally fell, currencies in various countries depreciated one after another, and many central banks had to announce a rate hike.
China officially criticized the United States for its interest rate hikes, and the Japanese government must not interfere with the exchange rate by taking action.
USD intends to lower the RMB exchange rate through continuous appreciation, but yesterday's RMB exchange rate fell first and then rose, which shows resilience.
, who will end up laughing in this contest?
01
The United States once again raised interest rates by 75 points, and it seems that it is famous for its masters, which is to control the high inflation , but in fact, the current U.S. inflation and even the world's inflation , should be attributed to the US dollar itself .
Since 2008, the United States has been accustomed to relying on large-scale issuance of currencies through , over-issuance of US dollars, and continuously issuance of additional US bonds and other methods to transfer economic crisis .
After the outbreak of the new crown epidemic, the United States has stepped up its efforts to launch the printing machine again. The over-issuance of currency spillover has caused global liquidity to flood, thus forming the current inflation.
The United States’ over-issuance of currency has made the world pay for it, and now it has raised interest rates many times, and once again made the world pay for it.
At yesterday's press conference, a Chinese spokesperson pointed out that in order to solve its own economic difficulties, the United States raised interest rates significantly, resulting in the continuous appreciation of the US dollar, which caused at least 36 currencies in the world to depreciate by more than 10%.
also caused a large number of developing countries to depreciate their local currencies, funds flee, financing costs and debt repayment costs to become increasingly high, and imported inflation led to economic recession, and ordinary families became poor overnight.
This is a rare harsh criticism of the US rate hike.
02
After the results of the US rate hike were announced, the dollar index quickly rose, reaching 111.833 at its highest yesterday. It has refreshed the high of the US dollar index in 20 years.
Due to this, the currencies in many countries depreciate. The pound hit a low of 1.1212 since the decline, the yen finally broke through the 145 mark, and the yuan also fell to 7.10.
In order to deal with the rate hikes in the United States, countries have adopted different response methods. Although yen announced that does not interest rate hikes, they directly interfered in the exchange rate market.
Europe had raised interest rates 75 basis points in advance before this. And the day before the US rate hike, Sweden announced a 100 basis point rate hike. Currently, Qatar raises interest rates by 75 basis points, Philippines raises interest rates by 50 basis points, Indonesia raises interest rates by 50 basis points, and Norway raises interest rates by 50 basis points. The UK raises interest rates by 50 basis points.
03
. For the RMB, there is indeed great pressure to depreciate recently. Yesterday, the RMB fell below 7.1 at its lowest point, reaching 7.1057. But at the close of late yesterday, the offshore exchange rate rebounded to 7.0811.
However, when we look back on the changes in the RMB exchange rate in the past five years, it fully reflects the characteristics of two-way fluctuations. has reached 6.9 when it depreciates 4 times, and even falls below 7.0, , but there have been many rebounds. The fastest appreciation was 2018 at the beginning of 4, which once reached 6.2, and 2 in April , and also reached .
Moreover, in the previous few depreciations, not only did the RMB assets not be sold, but were constantly bought by foreign capital.
In fact, no matter whether you look at the current financial data or the past historical data, we don’t need to worry too much. is backed by China’s strong economic strength, and RMB assets will only become more and more popular, and the two-way fluctuations in the exchange rate are normal .
04
On the contrary, the risks we need to pay attention to now come from US dollar assets.
This year, US stock has experienced wave after wave of decline, and the overall loss is relatively serious.
On the other hand, the continuous increase in yields of US bonds means that the price of US bonds is also falling. Nearly one-third of China's US$3.0 million foreign exchange reserves are allocated to US bonds.
US bond prices fell. The assets we hold may suffer losses. Moreover, the interest income obtained from holding US Treasury bonds for a long time cannot even resist the inflation rate in the United States, which is another loss.
In the past most of the years, China has continued to sell US bonds, selling at least 1,100 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
However, the latest data in July this year showed that my country's holdings of US Treasury increased by 2.2 billion, which may be due to the short-term appreciation of US Treasury in July, but it also indicates that the sales force in July has decreased.
should continue to reduce holdings of in the future and increase holdings of gold.
has strong economic strength as a backing, and I believe China will have the last laugh.
PS: Cai is clear and brings you an in-depth interpretation.
If you agree with the views of this article, please give me a thumbs up!
On the other hand, the continuous increase in yields of US bonds means that the price of US bonds is also falling. Nearly one-third of China's US$3.0 million foreign exchange reserves are allocated to US bonds.
US bond prices fell. The assets we hold may suffer losses. Moreover, the interest income obtained from holding US Treasury bonds for a long time cannot even resist the inflation rate in the United States, which is another loss.
In the past most of the years, China has continued to sell US bonds, selling at least 1,100 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 00 0
However, the latest data in July this year showed that my country's holdings of US Treasury increased by 2.2 billion, which may be due to the short-term appreciation of US Treasury in July, but it also indicates that the sales force in July has decreased.
should continue to reduce holdings of in the future and increase holdings of gold.
has strong economic strength as a backing, and I believe China will have the last laugh.
PS: Cai is clear and brings you an in-depth interpretation.
If you agree with the views of this article, please give me a thumbs up!
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