Last night Federal announced that the US dollar rate hike this month 75BP, and the current US dollar interest rate level has increased to 2.0%-2.25%, two consecutive extraordinary operations. Despite this, the market expects that this round of US dollar interest rate hike is actually coming to an end. The market expects that this round of US dollar interest rate hike target is around 3%, and there may be about two interest rate hikes afterwards, one 50BP and one 25BP.
There have been six interest rate hikes in the history of the Federal Reserve in total interest rate hike cycle:
interest rate hike background: during the Reagan government period, in order to deal with high inflation , 13.5%!
Rate hike cycle: took 18 months, and the interest rate was raised by 3% (300 basis points), with an average monthly US dollar interest rate rising by 16 basis points (this data can judge the current speed or progress of US dollar interest rate hike).
Rate hike background: prevent inflation after the stock market crash!
Rate hike cycle: took 15 months, and the interest rate was raised by 3.3125% (331.25 basis points), with an average of 22 basis points rising per month.
Rate hike background: prevent inflation!
Rate hike time: took 1 year, and the interest rate was raised by 2.75% (275 basis points), and the average monthly US dollar interest rate rose by 23 basis points.
Background of interest rate hike: In the late 1990s, the Internet bubble of the United States broke down, and then the Asian financial crisis was the Asian financial crisis. The Federal Reserve first adopted a cycle of interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, and started a new round of interest rate hikes after the US economy gradually stabilized in June 1999. Prevent inflation!
Rate hike cycle: took 1 year, and the interest rate was raised by 1.75% (175 basis points), and the average monthly interest rate rose by 15 basis points. This rate hike is relatively mild.
Rate hike background: Before 2004, the monetary easing policy adopted by the Federal Reserve, and the real estate bubble became increasingly serious, resulting in intensification of inflation. Therefore, the Federal Reserve started a new round of interest rate hike cycle since April 2004. cope with the real estate bubble and curb inflation!
Rate hike cycle: took 28 months, and the interest rate was raised by 4.25% (425 basis points), and the average monthly interest rate rose by 15 basis points.
Rate hike background: After the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve has been adopting the monetary policy of loose interest rate cuts until the end of 2014, when the US economy stabilized, the US dollar's balance sheet soared from 800 billion to 4.5 trillion US dollars, so the Federal Reserve began a new wave of interest rate hikes and balance sheet shrank monetary policy. Suppress inflation!
Rate hike cycle: took 30 months, and the interest rate was raised by 2% (200 basis points), and the average monthly interest rate rose by 7 basis points, and the interest rate hike was relatively mild.
Overall, the stronger the US dollar interest rate hike, the shorter the time window will be. For example, from December 2015 to June 2018, the US dollar interest rate increased by 2% (200 BP), which took 30 months. However, this round of US dollar interest rates has increased by 2.25% (225 basis points), and a 25 basis points rate hike was announced starting on March 17, opening a 22-year interest rate hike cycle. As of last night, it only took four months to raise the US dollar interest rate level by 2.25%. It is obvious that this wave of US dollar interest rate hikes is unprecedented, but it is destined that the interest rate hike period will be very short. Combined with the interest rate level, if the target is around 3%, if the interest rate hike is raised once or twice in the future, it may reach the upper limit of the interest rate hike target. After the
USD interest rate hike was implemented, the USD index remained at 106 USD, and there were no significant ups and downs.
After the US dollar interest rate hike was implemented, US stocks stopped falling and rebounded, and US stocks closed up overnight. Dow Jones Index rose 1.37% to 32197 points; Nasdaq Index rose 4.06% to 12032 points; S&P 500 Index rose 2.62% to 4023 points. However, it is a friendly reminder that according to the previous experience, the US dollar rate hike time window period will not fall on Wednesday and fall on Thursday.
overnight US 10-year Treasury bond yield plummeted, reaching 2.767%
offshore RMB exchange rate was 6.7411, not affected by the US dollar interest rate hike, and the fluctuations were stable.
Shanghai gold is 380 yuan/gram, and the international gold price is 1,735 USD/ounce. Gold prices rebounded rapidly.
silver quotation is 4.295 yuan/gram, up 3%
Shanghai copper futures main quotation is 59,420 yuan/ton, up 2%
coke futures main quotation is 2,754 yuan/ton, up 4%
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Coking coal futures main quotation was 2,053 yuan/ton, up 4%
One boot has landed, and the other boot may have to wait until the weekend news. Today is Thursday, nothing unexpected happens. Next week, , the market will continue to fluctuate and climb. The target above will first see the gap position.
I wish you good health, a happy life, and a long and prosperous investment!
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