At 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 31, the Federal Reserve "officially announced" a 25 basis point interest rate cut. This is not only the third time the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year, but it has only been a month and a half since the last rate cut. In July and Sep

At 2 a.m. Beijing time on October 31, the Federal Reserve "officially announced" a 25 basis point interest rate cut. This is not only the third time the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates this year, but it has only been a month and a half since the last rate cut. In July and September this year, the Federal Reserve has conducted interest rate cuts. Swiss Patacas Asset Management expects that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut this time will be the last time this year, but as US economic data will remain weak, it may cut interest rates again next year.

Federal Chairman Powell also said at a press conference that the current monetary policy stance of the Federal Reserve may be appropriate, but if future economic data leads to substantial changes in the Federal Reserve's assessment of the US economic outlook, the Federal Reserve will take corresponding actions.

driven by the news of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, the financial market also responded quickly. The US stock index rose sharply during the session, from a decline to a rise. As of the close, the three major US stock indexes closed higher across the board, the S&P 500 closed at 3046.77 points, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 120 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.33%. The

USD index rose rapidly and then showed a "cliff-like decline", and the yield on US Treasury also fell collectively. The price of gold also underwent a V-shaped reversal and quickly rose shortly after the diving.

The Fed's third interest rate cut this year has been implemented, and the People's Bank of China is likely not to follow up

The Fed's interest rate cut will often attract the "follow" of many countries, especially the emerging economies . After the Federal Reserve cut interest rates early this morning, four central banks have followed the rate cut. The Brazilian central bank announced a 50 basis point cut to 5%. In addition, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.00% today.

Since the beginning of this year, more than 30 economies around the world have announced interest rate cuts. Many economies around the world have cut interest rates one after another, and the market has turned its attention to China to discuss whether this rate cut will drive the People's Bank of China to cut interest rates within the year. Judging from the survey data collected by private equity placing network , 76.35% of private equity placing companies believe that the People's Bank of China will most likely not follow up on interest rate cuts.

Wukong Investment Research Center believes that the decisions of the People's Bank of China depend more on its own factors, and it is currently not expected to follow interest rate cuts. Domestic inflation problems are prominent, which will hinder monetary policy to a certain extent.

Maodian Asset Investment Research Center said that domestic monetary policy is still "mainly me". Under the current situation of CPI suppression, the probability of domestic interest rate cuts is not high.

Zhikai Investment Chief Strategist Liu Wei believes that the People's Bank of China will not follow up on interest rate cuts, because the central bank's monetary policy will fully consider changes in domestic inflation expectations, and in fact it will restrict the current monetary policy.

Xuanduo Investment General Manager Xiao Mo said that although the United States has cut interest rates for the third time this year, due to the pressure of food inflation in China, it is unlikely that a short-term interest rate cut will be cut. However, if the United States cuts interest rates for the fourth time this year, China may experience a passive rate cut or a structural rate cut.

, deputy general manager of Zhiyuan Investment, Wang Yifei, , said that judging from the recent central bank's policies and the current trend of treasury bond yields, the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China is likely to be independent of the United States, but it will still make a decision on whether to cut interest rates and reserve requirement ratios based on domestic macroeconomic demand.

General Manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment Yuan Huaming believes that although the Federal Reserve's continuous interest rate cuts and overseas interest rate cuts have increased the space and possibility of the monetary policy of the People's Bank of China, the timing of interest rate cuts is still uncertain. On the one hand, the LPR mechanism recently introduced provides a way to alleviate the financing pressure of the real economy without adjusting the nominal interest rate; on the other hand, the high increase in CPI in September also has certain constraints on the introduction of monetary policy. The downward pressure on China's economy has made the central bank's probability of lowering interest rates this year, but the time point needs to comprehensively consider changes in domestic economic development and foreign trade environment.

The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut has set off a wave of global interest rate cuts. Domestic monetary policy may continue to be loose. As of the close of October 30, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.17% since the beginning of this month, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose 2.01%, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.47%. Overall, the stock market is still in the stage of stock game. Technology and consumption, which have risen more in October, have been reduced by institutional funds. Bank stocks at low valuations are favored by institutional funds, and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and banking sectors have the highest growth rate throughout the month.

Since the market has sufficient expectations for the Fed rate cut, it is difficult to have too many surprises for A shares . According to historical data, on the day of the Fed's interest rate cut and the next 5 days, the Shanghai Composite Index fell more and rose less, and the future market trend depends on other factors. Are you optimistic about the next closing market for A-shares? 66.35% of private equity firms have a neutral attitude towards the end of the year, believing that the market will continue to fluctuate, mainly structural market. After the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, domestic monetary policy will be relatively loose, and consumer or industry may have opportunities to perform. 18.29% of private equity firms believe that the market is expected to recover at the end of the year, and the market has room for an upward breakthrough, and 15.36% of private equity firms are pessimistic about the market at the end of the year.

General Manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment Yuan Huaming is optimistic about the trend of A-shares in the future. The bottom support force around 2800 points of A-shares is relatively strong. Since September, the market trend is mainly suppressed by unfavorable factors such as downward pressure on the economy, acceleration of new stock issuance, and the decline in the technology sector. Considering that the economic downturn and uncertainty of the third-quarter report were digested by the end of October, there is a high possibility that domestic and foreign market liquidity and external trade environment will continue to improve before the end of the year, more favorable policies may be introduced after the conference, and the upward probability and space of the market are much greater than the downward probability and space.

Wukong Investment Research Center introduced to the Private Equity Ranking Network that whether the Fed cut interest rates is not the main contradiction in the A-share market, but it is conducive to the inflow of foreign capital to allocate Chinese assets and provide valuation support.

Maodian Asset Investment Research Center believes that the Fed's interest rate cut has little impact on A-shares. The main contradictions in A-shares are fundamentals and concerns about stagflation. The index level is mainly range fluctuations, and the stocks are more structural opportunities at the level.

Xuanduo Investment General Manager Xiao Mo remains optimistic about the closing market. Judging from the more than 100 daily limit increases caused by blockchain stimulus at the beginning of the week, institutions are still enthusiastic about going long, and the market just needs a stimulus.

Changfu Fund Fund Manager Wang Changfu is also optimistic about the closing market of A-shares, and believes that this adjustment is a good time to intervene after the adjustment is over. It will continue to rise after the adjustment of 3042, the adjustment of 3288--2733 has ended, and the rise of 2733--3042 has not ended, and it is still in the box fluctuation.

, deputy general manager of Zhiyuan Investment, Wang Yifei, , believes that the short-term trend of the stock market is difficult to predict, but with the gradual introduction of a series of policy measures for reform and innovation in the capital market, the company is optimistic that a series of policy supply for marketization of the securities market will bring about new growth period capital and inflow of active funds.

Huifeng Assets believes that the end of the year is in the period of capital recovery, and the pullback is a good opportunity for investors who are optimistic about it.

Blue horse stocks batch hit the limit , risk and opportunity coexist

Recently, the stock prices of many white horse stocks such as Baiyun Airport , Tongce Medical , Shengyi Technology , etc. have encountered limit hikes, causing the market to worry about whether the phenomenon of white horse grouping ends. 82.21% of the private equity firms surveyed believe that blue-chip stocks still have investment value, and this pullback is a very good time to intervene for the veritable blue-chip stocks. However, 17.79% of private equity firms believe that it is an indisputable fact that blue-chip stocks are overvalued, and as the end of the year approaches, some institutions realize their returns, blue-chip stocks may continue to face pressure to pull back.

Wukong Investment Research Center considers more from the perspective of industry prosperity trends, paying attention to whether to participate in the corresponding sub-industry blue-chip stocks, and believes that the market is a good opportunity to get on the bus.

, deputy general manager of Zhiyuan Investment, Wang Yifei, , analyzed that the recent pullback of blue-chip stocks is mainly due to the obvious rise this year, and expectations are disappointing, and stock prices will naturally fall. The market of blue-chip stocks should be conducted in-depth fundamental analysis from the individual stock dimensions and industry trend dimensions. Some individual stocks still have long-term investment value, but there are also many excellent blue-chip stocks that have gained too much, have a high price-to-earnings ratio, and have overdrawn future growth expectations. They may not have the conditions for value investment, and only have short-term swing trading value, which needs to be carefully identified.

chief strategist of Zhikai Investment Liu Wei believes that the performance growth rate of some blue-chip stocks in the third quarter is not as expected, and the previous increase is too large, and some stocks have seriously deviated from their performance. In addition, as the end of the year approaches, some blue-chip stock institutions have more positions, and they must also consider the objective situation of reducing positions and taking profits. Therefore, in the short term, some blue-chip stocks are still under pressure to pull back.

Maodian Asset Investment Research Center believes that it is necessary to look at the blue-chip stocks according to the situation. In the long run, if the fundamentals still have good growth in the future and market expectations are repaired to a certain extent, there will still be opportunities. In the short term, blue-chip stocks still have downward pressure.

General Manager of Huahui Chuangfu Investment, Yuan Huaming, , pointed out that in light of current low valuations of white horse stocks compared with A-shares, long-term capital inflows at home and abroad are conducive to blue horse stocks with stronger performance certainty. Most blue horse stocks are worth long-term investors taking advantage of market fluctuations and low layout. What investors need to be wary of is the "pseudo-blue horse stocks" whose performance is watery, and the high-valuation blue-chip stocks that are over-speculated in the market.

General Manager of Yuanfeng Asset Chen Chengjie believes that although the overall valuation of blue-chip stocks is not high, the internal structural valuation is uneven. Some blue-chip stocks may have bubbles, and there is a high probability that they will diverge in the future.

This article is from the official microsoftware website

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