US inflation has exceeded expectations again! Data shows that the US CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, with an estimated 8.1%, with an previous value of 8.3%. The US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with an estimated 0.2%, with an previous value of 0.1%. The United States' qu

U.S. inflation has exceeded expectations again!

data shows that the US CPI rose 8.2% year-on-year in September, with an estimated 8.1%, with an previous value of 8.3%; the US CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, with an estimated 0.2%, with an previous value of 0.1%. The United States' quarterly adjustment core CPI rose 6.6% year-on-year, expected to be 6.50%, and the previous value was 6.30%. As soon as the news came out, US stock futures straight line futures dived , Nasdaq futures decline expanded to 3%, US dollar index straight up, offshore RMB fell below 7.23 against the US dollar, a drop of 0.9%.

Tomorrow A shares want to bear? It just happened to be no longer possible in two days?

is not necessarily the case, I don’t think so terrible!

first. This news seems a bit beyond expectations, but in fact it is also expected.

Because the PPI data released yesterday has exceeded expectations: US PPI (producer price index) in September increased by 0.4% month-on-month, expected to be 0.20%, the previous value was -0.10%; September PPI increased by 8.5% year-on-year, expected to be 8.40%, and the previous value was 8.70%.

Moreover, recent declines, including the intensification of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, OPEC+ exceeding expectations for production cuts, etc., are strengthening the situation of CPI exceeding expectations in September.

Therefore, many people in the market have expected that the CPI data released today will rise more than expected, but people are more looking forward to the big rebound after the US CPI data declined beyond expectations.

, but the result was a bit disappointing and did not go downwards beyond expectations.

second, 1 is still available for the next rate hike .

Federal 's next rate hike is in November, which is more than a month away. The current market expects this to be 75 basis points, which is the largest rate hike accepted by the Federal Reserve. The focus of the market is whether the interest rate will be raised by 75 basis points in December.

Before that, there was a period of window period . The economic data will gradually weaken, the inflation base will become higher and higher, and the weak economy will put more and more pressure on interest rate hikes. At the same time, inflation will continue to decline to reduce the pressure on the market.

For example, together with inflation, the United States' relief data showed that The number of people applying for unemployment benefits for the first time in the United States last week was 228,000, and the estimated number was 225,000, and the previous value was 219,000. This is the first time that the number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the United States exceeded expectations for two consecutive weeks. shows that the impact of interest rate hikes on the US economy has begun to deepen .

Before that, the global capital market had fallen for nearly two months, the selling pressure had decreased significantly, and sentiment had been released. In fact, whether it exceeded expectations or not, The market may usher in a round of rebound, but the strength is different.

However, in the long run, the future market is still not very optimistic, and the future rebound is still only a phased valuation rebound.

In the case of high inflation, the United States is still increasing its confrontation, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is still continuing, and the thunder of economic data has been buried, just waiting for the future to set off.

According to Bloomberg on Thursday (October 13), the US management team of Asmay Holdings said in an internal email to US employees: "Asmay US employees must avoid providing services, transportation or support directly or indirectly to any Chinese customers until further notice. Asmay will also actively evaluate which specific factories are affected by the (US government) regulations."

This behavior is just a microcosm of the current structural confrontation, which will inevitably further increase the cost of the global supply chain and thus increase the pressure on inflation , because the supply chain order under globalization is disrupted, and those who need it cannot buy it and those who supply it cannot sell it.

This is a struggle that may last for quite a long time, and this impact on inflation will also be long-term.Currently, inflation has not been reflected in the unemployment rate. Whether in Europe or the United States, the current unemployment rate is at a historical low. Currently, European and American people have only felt the decline in purchasing power caused by inflation, and have not yet felt the panic of unemployment.

Before this, it would be difficult for politicians to change their positions easily. This confrontation will continue, and the negative impact of this inflation on the economy will continue.

So, cherish the investment window period from October to November.