Although three-quarters of 2022 have passed, looking back at the first three quarters, under the interweaving of the global COVID-19 epidemic, and local wars and conflicts are still continuing in some regions, supply chains in some regions around the world are tight, and the price of crude oil soars, causing prices in various countries to continue to rise.
is the most serious inflation in Europe and the United States. For example, the United States in August CPI rose 8.3% year-on-year, and inflation pressure rose instead of falling; euro zone in September has reached 10%, of which 10.9% in Germany and 6.2% in France. Western countries led by the United States continue to raise interest rates.
shows that global economic growth has slowed down significantly.
On October 11, International Monetary Fund (International Monetary Fund , referred to as IMF) released the latest issue of the " World Economic Outlook Report ", which also confirmed that the global economy is not optimistic.
IMF predicts that global GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2022, the same as its July forecast; however, global GDP growth rate will further slow down to 2.7% in 2023, down 0.2 percentage points from the July forecast.
This latest report points out that the current global economy faces many challenges: inflation rate has reached its highest level in decades, the cost of living crisis, the tightening of the financial environment in most regions, the Ukrainian crisis and the continued COVID-19 pandemic have seriously affected the prospects of global economic growth.
Image source: International Monetary Fund
In fact, IMF President Georgieva previously stated on October 6 that even if the economy achieves positive growth, people will feel that they have experienced an economic recession due to shrinking actual income and rising prices.
So, what are the economic growth of major countries and regions around the world in the next two years?
1, Advanced Economies
Specifically, the IMF predicts that advanced economies will grow by 2.4% in 2022, a 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous July forecast; it will grow by 1.1% in 2023, a 0.3 percentage point lower than the July forecast.
Among them, The US economic growth rate in 2022 was the lowest among major developed countries, with GDP expected to grow only 1.6%, and lowered 0.7 percentage points from the previous July forecast; and it is expected that US economic growth will continue to decline to 1.0% in 2023, the same as the July forecast.
IMF predicts that the euro zone's economic growth this year is 3.1%, and is up 0.5 percentage points from the previous July forecast; however, in 2023, it is expected that the economic growth rate of euro zone will be only 0.5%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous forecast. In the euro zone, Spain's economy is expected to grow by 4.3% this year, the highest in major developed countries, with an estimated growth of 1.2% in 2023.
IMF expects Japan's economy to be basically stable this year and next year, among which, Japan's GDP is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2022 and 1.6% in 2023.
expects the UK economy to grow by 3.6% and 0.3% in the next two years, and Canada is expected to grow by 3.3% and 1.5% respectively. It is obvious that both countries' economies have also slowed down significantly in 2023.
2, Emerging Market and Developing Economies (Emerging Market and Developing Economies)
IMF report said that the GDP of emerging markets and developing economies is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2022, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous forecast; it will also increase by 3.7% in 2023, but down 0.2 percentage point from the previous forecast.
Asian emerging markets and developing economies
IMF expects Asian emerging markets and developing economies to grow GDP by 4.4% and 4.9% in the next two years, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous forecasts, respectively.
And among the major countries around the world, China's economy is still the main engine of global economic growth. However, with the global economic downturn, the IMF predicts that China's GDP will grow by 3.2% in 2022, and the growth rate will increase to 4.4% in 2023, down 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points from the previous July forecast.
is expected to grow at 6.8% and 6.1% in the next two years, ASEAN five countries will be 5.3% and 4.9% in the next two years, and Vietnam is expected to grow at 7.0% and 6.2% in the next two years, with a relatively fast economic growth.
European emerging markets and developing economies
Affected by local regional conflicts, the IMF expects GDP of European emerging markets and developing economies to be 0 in 2022, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous forecast; it is expected to grow by 0.6% in 2023, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous forecast.
Source: IMF The third column from left is the 2022 forecast value
Among them, Russia's economic growth rate affected by the war is expected to decline by 3.4%, up 2.6 percentage points from the previous forecast value, mainly due to the rise in crude oil and natural gas prices, which alleviates Russia's dilemma to a certain extent; it is expected to decline by 2.3% in 2023, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous forecast value.
Ukraine, which was most affected by the war, had the greatest economic blow. The IMF predicts that Ukraine's GDP will drop sharply by 35% in 2022. It is obvious that how Ukraine's economy will be next year depends mainly on when the Russian-Ukrainian conflict ends.
IMF predicts that the oil powerhouse - Saudi Arabia GDP growth forecast will remain unchanged this year and next year, with an expected growth of 7.6% and 3.7% respectively. Similarly, the rapid growth rate in 2022 is mainly due to the rise in crude oil prices driving its economic growth.
The GDP growth forecast values for other major countries and regions in the next two years are shown in the figure above and below.
Image source: International Monetary Fund
In addition, the IMF report also pointed out that the global economic outlook faces huge downward pressure risks. In dealing with inflation, monetary policy may make mistakes. More energy and food price shocks may cause inflation to last longer. The tightening of the global financing environment may trigger a wide range of debt difficulties in emerging markets.
[This article is original by Jinghai Shibei. Please do not reprint or plagiarize without permission]
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