The new energy revolution is booming, with electric vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaic power generation, and carbon neutrality. Any sectors related to new energy and stock have risen to the sky, and it is common for several times a year to rise.
In comparison, the former energy star - "two barrels of oil" (CNPC) is full of loneliness. CNPC 's last highlight moment was already 14 years ago when it landed on A shares . Don't mention the past of full stock of CNPC. Even if it starts from logging on Hong Kong stock , the stock price has increased by only about 2 times (previous re-rights), but this is a full 21 years of waiting, and the annualized rate of return is not to be forgotten.
The oil industry has become a representative of old energy sources. A new energy concept is popular in the market: photovoltaic power generation is replacing underground oil digging, and electric vehicles are also replacing fuel vehicles.
Under this trend, is the "two barrels of oil" still valuable?
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The value of oil cannot be replaced by
Many people are not optimistic about the oil industry and like to break into the old energy camp, which stems from the rise of electric vehicles, especially the global electric vehicle boom caused by Tesla . According to statistics, 70% of the world's oil is used in the transportation field, and China is no exception.
If electrification or other new energy transportation methods can be fully deployed and completely replaced oil, a rough estimate will result in the loss of at least 70% of the business volume of the two barrels of oil, which will be a fatal blow to any company.
But in fact, this "full replacement" is difficult to happen.
Because oil is one of the power sources, its performance is still excellent in core parameters, such as combustion value and thermal efficiency. is also widely used in medium or heavy power, especially in large freight and heavy tool vehicles. Although Tesla has also launched a cybertruck truck with a very sci-fi color, there are still many technical aspects that need to be made breakthroughs for electric vehicles to fully enter the field of heavy vehicles. In terms of sea and air transportation, oil has shown an unparalleled advantage.
The convenience of oil is incomparable to electrification. Although more and more charging piles are built in , the time-consuming problem of charging is still difficult to break through. The reason is that if you charge quickly, the current will be too high, which can easily cause heat or even explosion. Safety is always a hurdle that charging technology cannot overcome. So even with the most advanced Tesla fast charging technology, it takes more than an hour to go from 0 to full by Model 3, not to mention ordinary charging technology. This is a very different thing than adding fuel for one or two minutes.
In addition, the application of oil in the industrial field, its basic position in chemical raw materials, and other energy sources derived from oil, such as natural gas, as well as national defense, military industry and even war irreplaceable, gives oil more strategic value.
So, there is still something to do in this business of oil.
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The value of "two barrels of oil"
Like many developed countries, China also regards oil as a strategic material. The country needs to have control over it, which is reflected in the operating rights, that is, the entry threshold is relatively high, and only central enterprises can do it. Up to now, a policy monopoly of "two barrels of oil" has been formed, which can be regarded as the advantage of "two barrels of oil". After all, there are few companies and the competitive landscape is relatively stable, so there is no need to worry about "novice" coming in to grab business.
Of course, the operating performance of the "two barrels of oil" is easily affected by fluctuations in international oil prices, and oil prices are related to basic people's livelihood and are subject to government price controls. However, no matter how the international geopolitical evolves or how the economic cycle changes, since its listing in 2000, the "two barrels of oil" have always maintained a profitable state. Moreover, the comparison of the quantity of supply and demand sides and the consumption attributes of oil also determine that the "two barrels of oil" have a better cash flow level.
Sinopec 's operating net cash flow is usually 3-4 times the net profit. PetroChina is better. In recent years, it has climbed to more than 5, and in some years it even reached 9. In most years, the net cash flow of the "two barrels of oil" has remained positive. In terms of dividend distribution of
, the "two barrels of oil" are also generous.
Since its entry into the A-share market, Sinopec's cumulative dividend amount has been 350 billion, with a dividend rate of 37%, while PetroChina has been 472.1 billion, with a dividend rate of 39%. The dividend rate is comparable to Kweichow Moutai , which is generally higher than the large bank stocks of about 20%. In terms of dynamic dividend yield, both oil prices are around 4%, which is equivalent to large bank stocks.
When it comes to the core competitiveness of the "two barrels of oil", there is another thing that must be mentioned, that is, gas stations and outlets all over the country.
As of the end of 2020, the number of gas stations with "two barrels of oil" exceeded 53,000. These gas stations occupying major transportation routes not only mean huge "flow" value, but not only brings a rolling cash flow and financial resources to PetroChina, but also provides infrastructure guarantees for extending other businesses and expanding new markets.
Relying on the outlets of "two barrels of oil", Sinopec's Yijie convenience stores have exceeded 27,000, ranking first in China, while Sinopec's Kunlun Hospitality has exceeded 20,000, ranking third.
In the field of electric vehicles, although the "two barrels of oil" seem to be the target of revolution, in fact, they are getting a share of the pie in this field. The reason is the advantage of outlets. New energy vehicle companies such as NIO , Evergrande have also signed strategic cooperation agreements with Sinopec to build charging/battery swap stations.
Solving mileage anxiety is still an important part of life and death for new forces. Without the empowerment of the "two barrels of oil" infrastructure, new forces will have to face a huge capital expenditure problem, and the profit problem may have to be postponed for many years.
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Conclusion
Oil's strategic material attributes dominate the global geopolitical pattern in the second half of the 20th century to a certain extent. The super status of the US dollar is also given by oil, until now.
Although the new energy revolution is coming in full force, it is difficult to completely replace oil, whether it is electrification or the hydrogen energy behind it. The energy landscape in the future will gradually diversify, and oil is an important pole. Electric vehicles can occupy a whole world, and fuel vehicles will still have their own advantages. Each has complementary advantages and a balanced pattern will be formed at a certain point in time.
In other words, the demand for oil will not dry up due to the new energy revolution.
In China, whether it is CNPC or Sinopec, the policy status of the "two barrels of oil" is still there. Coupled with the strategic advantages formed by years of operation and the advantages of business outlets, it not only consolidates the existing status of the "two barrels of oil", but also provides support for its development of business in the new energy era.
The future value of "two barrels of oil" is still clearly visible.
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