Image source: Overseas Network quoted NHK
Two gunshots made a huge echo in Japan.
Yesterday, the three-year Senate re-election vote came to an end. Abe The ruling alliance formed by the Liberal Democratic Party and the Komeito Party won more than half of the seats. Kishida Fumio said at a press conference that day that it will initiate discussions in Congress on the issue of four modifications proposed by the Liberal Democratic Party, including the Self-Defense Force, as soon as possible. Many analyses believe that Japan's obstacles to peaceful constitutional amendment have basically been cleared, and the possibility of constitutional amendment is "higher than ever".
In addition, as the longest-serving prime minister in Japan in half a century, Shinzo Abe has left a huge legacy to Japan's political and economics. Among them, the one with the most far-reaching impact on Japan's economy is undoubtedly the " Abenomics " , which lasted for nearly ten years. With the death of Shinzo Abe, can the so-called "Abe economics" continue to persist in the future?
Kishida government "midterm exam"
On July 11, local time, the final results of the 26th Senate election in Japan were announced, and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party won more than half of the re-elected seats alone. In addition, the constitutional amendment forces won more than two-thirds of the majority in the Senate, and broke the "threshold" required for the constitutional amendment motion.
Just two days before the Senate election, Abe was shot in Nara and eventually died of excessive blood loss. At that time, he was giving a speech on the election assistance to the candidates for the Liberal Democratic Party Senate.
During his speech, the suspect was ambushing the right rear of Abe. Image source: Overseas Network quoted social platform video screenshots
Japanese Liberal Democratic Party President and current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said after the election voting: "When violence is shaking the foundation of the election, it is very important that we can unite the election."
Senate election is of great significance. It is positioned as the "midterm exam" of the Japanese government and is also a "test paper" for the current Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. Japanese senator's term of office is 6 years, and half of them are re-elected every 3 years. This time, the government and opposition parties will compete for 125 seats.
Statistical results show that among the 125 re-elected seats, the Liberal Democratic Party in the ruling coalition won 63 seats and the Komeito Party won 13 seats, far exceeding the previously set "more than half" target. With the 70 seats not re-elected, the ruling coalition has 146 seats in the Senate. Shigenobu Tamura, a political analyst and former Liberal Democratic Party staff member, said that the assassination of Abe in may have increased the ruling party's support rate in "a fiercely competitive constituency." According to Japan Kyodo News , voter turnout is expected to rise to 51.58% from 48.8% of Senate elections three years ago.
On the afternoon of the same day, Fumio Kishida held a press conference on the elections of the 26th Japanese Senate. Fumio Kishida said that in this Senate election, the Liberal Democratic Party won 63 seats, far exceeding expectations.
If the House of Representatives is not dissolved, there will be no elections for the congress and the Senate in Japan in the next three years. Some analysts believe that if Kishida Fumio won the Senate election, he could not disband the House of Representatives in the middle of the 2025 period, and usher in the "golden three years" of without the national political elections. He could also use this period to promote important issues such as constitutional revision.
Kishida Fumio said that the current development of Japan's economy is the concern of the people, and the government has the responsibility to solve the economic and livelihood issues. He also pointed out that Japan is currently in the biggest dilemma after World War II . Two important points in the future regime operation are: extensive listening to opinions, as well as decisiveness and execution.
In addition, regarding issues such as rising domestic prices in Japan, Fumio Kishida said that he will focus on energy and food supply.
At present, Japan is facing problems such as rising prices and insufficient power supply, which puts pressure on the Kishida government. Polls show that the most popular topic in this election is "Countermeasures and Economic Policies for Rising Prices" . Japanese companies hope that more than half of the economic-related policies implemented by the Japanese government will answer "countermeasures for rising prices."
constitutional amendment process may speed up
After this election, political parties open to constitutional amendment are expected to exceed two-thirds of the seats necessary to file a constitutional amendment motion in the Senate. Previously, the forces supporting constitutional amendment have retained two-thirds of the seats in the House of Representatives, which means that Japan's constitutional amendment process may be accelerated after this election, and Kishida Fumio may be able to amend Japan's peace constitution, which is a goal that Abe has never achieved before.
According to CCTV News , Japan's current constitution promises to give up war and not retain force in the form of the highest law of the country. This is the prerequisite for Japan to return to the international community after the war and the legal cornerstone of Japan's post-war pursuit of the pacifist line, so it is also called the "peace constitution."
The current constitution of Japan was formulated after the defeat of World War II Japan was officially implemented on May 3, 1947. Article 9 of the Constitution stipulates that Japan will always give up launching wars, threats of force or use force as a means to resolve international disputes; to achieve this goal, Japan will not maintain the army, navy, air force and other war forces, and will not recognize the state's right to war. Article 9 of is the core of Japan's "peace constitution" and is also the legal cornerstone of Japan's path of peace after the end of World War II.
70 years, the "Peace Constitution" has guaranteed Japan to stay away from war and develop with peace of mind. However, in recent years, the trend of conservatism and right-wing in Japan's political arena has become increasingly fierce. Many politicians clamor to change their post-war arrangements and completely get rid of their identity as a "defeated country". After the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Japan frequently launched diplomatic activities, trying to take the opportunity to "release itself" and get rid of the constraints of the "peace constitution".
As early as 2007, the first Abe cabinet took the first step to promote constitutional amendment. The Senate voted to pass the National Referendum Law, which stipulates the procedures for amending the constitution. In 2012, Shinzo Abe proposed a plan to amend the constitution on the eve of his second administration, and , but he did not achieve this goal until he resigned as prime minister in 2020.
In September 2020, Abe's successor Suga Yoshihide also expressed his intention to amend the constitution after being elected as the president of the Liberal Democratic Party. Fumio Kishida has also repeatedly stated that he intends to promote the passage of the Liberal Democratic Party's four constitutional amendments, , which includes clearly writing about the Self-Defense Forces in Article 9 of the Constitution. Nikkei News said that the Liberal Democratic Party also wrote increased defense spending into its campaign program, advocating that defense spending should be increased to more than 2% of Japan's GDP (GDP).
Associate Professor Li Jiacheng, School of International Relations, Liaoning University, said that after Shinzo Abe stepped down as Prime Minister of Japan, he was still the leader of the Abe Department, the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party of Japan, and still influenced Japan's political situation. Previously, Abe's main goal was to amend the constitution, seeking to clearly position the existence of the Self-Defense Force in the constitution and make Japan a "normal country." After the current Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who is the same as Abe, came to power, he was also promoting Japan's constitutional amendment.
Previously, when asked about constitutional amendment, Kishida Fumio said that he would focus on formulating a bill for Congress to discuss. However, Robert Ward of International Strategic Institute believes that Kishida Fumio may act cautiously on constitutional amendment. But this big victory could pave the way for increased defense spending—a key promise made by the Liberal Democratic Party in the election.
" Global Times " editorial mentioned: "...The constitutional amendment motion not only faces fierce controversy in Japan, but also arouses widespread concerns in Asia-Pacific neighbors and the international community, with clear opposition voices. In this case, if writes the Self-Defense Force into Article 9 of the Peace Constitution , is that Japan sends a dangerous signal to neighboring countries and Asia that denies post-war history and the path of peaceful development. In this sense, whether to change Article 9 of the Peace Constitution is by no means a complete "Japanese internal affairs". The victims of Japanese militarism have reasons and need to express concerns and raise doubts to Japan's constitutional amendment. "
Editorial believes that "constitutional amendment" is a magic box, not a treasure box, and Japan will open it with endless troubles. "Funo Kishida mentioned on the 11th that Japan is now facing the most severe difficulties after the war. What he is talking about is the truth, economic recession, high prices, and the COVID-19 epidemic are not under control, etc., making it difficult for the Japanese people to live a life of the Japanese people. But from the box of constitutional amendment, no tools can be taken out to deal with these urgent problems, but instead releases a monster that eats people. The peaceful constitution binds the impulse of militarism, and it never binds Japan's peaceful development energy, but its powerful guarantee. The insecurity deliberately amplified by the Japanese right wing is completely unnecessary."
"Abenomics" is invalid?
After Shinzo Abe became prime minister, he implemented the loose economic policy of , which is called "Abenomics" , which has had a profound impact on the Japanese economy in the past 10 years.
According to Daily Economic News , the goal of "Abenomics" is to get the Japanese economy out of its 20-year deflationary state (i.e., lost 20 years) and achieve economic growth. Its specific means are vividly called "Three Arrows" . The first arrow is through the large-scale monetary easing of the central bank . It can boost prices, depreciate the yen, improve the competitiveness of foreign trade, encourage corporate investment to drive wage growth, and the growth of workers' income and price increase will drive consumption; the second arrow is . The flexible fiscal policy , which stimulates investment enthusiasm for enterprises to reduce taxes and raises consumption tax to fill the gap in fiscal expenditure; the third arrow is structural reform , such as supporting and encouraging women to enter the workplace to solve the accumulated disadvantage of insufficient labor.
information video screenshot Image source: CCTV News Screenshot
Statistics show that since the launch of "Abenomics", the Japanese yen exchange rate has depreciated by about 37.5% compared with the US dollar, the Nikkei index has risen by about 163%, Japan's 10-year interest rate has fallen by about 77 basis points, the Bank of Japan's government bond assets have expanded significantly, Japan's nominal and real GDP has risen by 9% and 4.5% respectively, and Japan has also got rid of the deflation situation.
But at present, many people think that the most important arrow of "Abenomics" - the loose monetary policy of is becoming inappropriate. Due to the loose policy stance, the yen exchange rate against the US dollar has fallen to a low of more than 20 years, and once fell below the 1 dollar-136 yen mark.
And for many Japanese, the most disappointing thing is that reforms aimed at reshaping the Japanese economy and being the third arrow have proved difficult to achieve. Japan's economy is staggering due to low productivity, rapid aging population and rigid labor markets.
According to media reports, Someone close to Fumio Kishida said that Kishida's team hopes to gradually cancel "Abenomics". analysts say that after Shinzo Abe's death and the Liberal Democratic Party won the Senate election, Fumio Kishida may now have the political capital to change the policy line, and he will have three years to push legislation to pass before the next round of elections.
Koya Miyamae, senior economist at Sumitomo Bank Nikkei Securities, said: "Kishina Fumio Kishida may have more room for maneuver in implementing policies based on his own propositions, but lawmakers close to Abe can unite and call for the maintenance of Abe's economics more loudly."
Editor丨Zhang Yajing Comprehensive Beijing Business Daily (Reporter Tao Feng Zhao Tianshu), CCTV News, Global Times, Daily Economic News
Pictures丨Xinhua News Agency, Overseas Network, CCTV News Screenshots, Visual China
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-