Will those funds that have taken root in the bear market have more vigorous vitality in the future?
, selected by Guotai Jiangyuan Advantages managed by Zheng Youwei, gave a "template-style" affirmative answer: As of June 30 this year, the fund's return rate in the past year was 14.22%, the return rate in the past year was 88.38%, and the return rate in the past three years was 193.98%.
Galaxy Securities data shows that the return rate of 193.98% in the past three years ranks 8/425 among similar funds. [Note: The 425 comparable funds during the same period are all flexible allocation funds (benchmark stock ratio 30%-60%) (Class A)]
Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage Selection's performance in recent years
Data source: Wind, as of June 30, 2022
Year by year, from 2019 to 2021, the yields of Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage Selection are 48.86%, 85.10%, and 31.58%, respectively. The performance in these three years is very outstanding, but it is not the best among public equity funds.
For Zheng Youwei, the short-term performance is reasonable.
, including the fund products managed by Cathay Jiangyuan over the years, have put the withdrawal first in consideration, do not bet on the track, do not bet on style, and adhere to a balanced and stable style, and their long-term performance has become more and more "savory".
Maybe it is only after you really get close to Zheng Youwei that everyone will realize that in recent years, the Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage Selection has been able to deliver performance surprises on time. There are no very profound investment techniques behind it, but it is extremely simple and simple.
01
"all-round" road
Every late July is the day when the second quarterly report of the fund is concentratedly disclosed. Every time the fund quarterly report is disclosed, the heavily held stocks of high-performing funds have also attracted much attention. The position adjustment actions of celebrity fund managers have been exposed, which are talked about by investors.
Turning on the second quarter reports of funds such as Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage and Cathay Zhiyuan Advantage, we can find that Zheng Youwei's heavily held stocks are all in the fields of consumption, cycle, technology, growth, etc., and the total weight of the top ten heavily held stocks is around 55%. It is obvious that Zheng Youwei holds shares and the industry is scattered than most fund managers.
Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage Top ten heavy-weight stocks at the end of the second quarter of 2022
Data source: Fund Second Quarter Report
But at the beginning, it was not so balanced and versatile.
Zheng Youwei first entered the market in 2007. Considering that the penetration rate of insurance in China was not high at that time, he decisively bought a certain insurance leader and soon doubled his stock price. But in the extreme industry in 2008, he was not spared. After several times of cutting and buying the bottom, he finally returned all his profits to the market.
This short-term practical operation in the secondary market made Zheng Youwei understand two things - diversify risks and invest in a pattern.
After entering Shanghai Jiaotong University, Zheng Youwei first interned at Oriental Securities for one year, studying under Li Jiaohua, the then chief of the pharmaceutical industry. Since May 2014, he has served as an investment manager at Ping An Asset Management. At the end of 2018, he officially joined Cathay Fund.
Pharmaceutical and consumption are the two first tracks Zheng Youwei invested in research.
just happened to be. In the first two years when Zheng Youwei was an investment manager, the pharmaceutical sector ushered in a bull market. According to the bottom-up strategy of stacking the most prosperous companies, Zheng Youwei firmly grasped this round of market conditions and achieved a "good start".
At the beginning of 2016, the A-share market briefly tried the circuit breaker mechanism, and it triggered the circuit breaker for four consecutive trading days, and the market was once full of grief. Zheng Youwei, who is in the market, also began to strongly realize how important absolute returns are to holders.
"A contestant who is biased towards family is like a farmer who only knows how to grow corn. Once the year is bad and the weather is not suitable for corn growth, he will only suffer from a bad harvest."Zheng Youwei said this.
also started from this time. Zheng Youwei made up his mind to broaden his circle of capabilities. He spent a year and a half to conduct a lot of research to clarify the research methods, basic contexts, and reasonable profit ranges corresponding to various business models based on the valuation framework of the profit range. After
grew and precipitated, Zheng Youwei has created his "441 formation" and is heading towards an investment path of all-weather and all-market.
02
Retracement "killer"
The first 4 of the "441 formation" means 40% of the positions are allocated to mature industries as the bottom position; the second 4 , it is necessary to allocate 40% of the positions to the industry leader; there are 10% of the positions to allocate some unpopular stocks. The idea of the top 80% of the position configuration of
has anchored Zheng Youwei's strategy of "seeking stability". How much money does
make for holders in a year? His answer is 15% (long-term compound annualized), which is twice the growth rate of nominal GDP. Zheng Youwei has also done his homework specifically, if it is long In the future, this rate of return can even surpass it, and can basically rank in the top 1/4 of the entire market, which is suitable for the global asset management industry.
allocates 40% of the positions to leaders in various industries, which can help the combination to increase the difference income and earn money from Davis double-click.
"can be a big leader in the industry or a leader in sub-industry. I know very well that I don't need such high odds, but the winning rate as high as possible. "
Facts have also proved that Zheng Youwei made stock portfolios based on the "441 formation", and the net value performance of the fund is particularly stable.
Guotai Jiangyuan Advantage Net Value Trend Chart
Data source: Wind, As of July 28, 2022
Of course, the market has been changing, and the investment methods will not be static. The bull market brings laughter to investors, and the bear market leaves sadness to investors. After experiencing bull and bear switching several times, we will gradually understand how to respect the market.
"The first important thing in the investment framework is to control the drawdown. In the long run, whether a fund's yield is excellent does not depend on making 10 more points in the bull market, but on falling 10 less points in the bear market. "Zheng Youwei said.
In daily investment research work, how to find 10% that can "fall less"? Stop loss.
Zheng Youwei likes fishing very much. He has tried it many times. If he can't catch fish in three hours and the fishing method is fine, he can basically judge that there is no fish in this place, change to the alternative fishing spot in time, and then fish in the last three hours.
Zheng Youwei said: "Life experience tells me that it is not necessarily correct to hold a place to death. "
In investment, Zheng Youwei only gave his stocks six months. The stock price trend in six months did not meet expectations, which may be a problem of the industry's prosperity or market style, but it must be replaced to stop losses in time.
Like fishing in life and love investment at work. In Zheng Youwei's eyes, fishing and investment have many similarities.
Before fishing, Zheng Youwei will look at the weather, measure the water pressure, understand the bottom structure and surrounding environment. In investment, this is the judgment of the macro environment and the meso-scene situation; for the fishing ground and The choice of fishing spot is exactly the same as the choice of investors for the industry; when fishing for what kind of target fish, they should choose the corresponding bait, and when investing, they will also think about what kind of stocks they want.
When fishing, they can only catch big fish. In investment, they can only take good stocks when looking at the long term.
03
"Long-distance running" expert
In the ever-changing secondary market, there are mostly messy voices, and it is important to maintain your own investment rhythm.
Long-distance runners on the sports field know the importance of rhythm to the performance of the competition. In the front and middle stages of professional competitions, most athletes run at a constant speed, maintain stable oxygen supply and save physical energy, so that they can make the final sprint in the last stage. If you can never lose in every stage, your final results will definitely be bad.
Zheng Youwei is in a relatively high position in every year with his balanced and stable thinking. After a long period of accumulation, those "fast and slow" players were eliminated, and Zheng Youwei gradually became a "long-distance running" expert in the industry.
Zheng Youwei's performance and ranking of funds under management
Data source: Wind, as of June 30, 2022
In fact, with the deep popularity of value investment and long-term investment concepts, most investment managers in the asset management industry are on the road of long-term victory. However, Zheng Youwei's first qualifying feature, in addition to the correct play, he also has his own specific advantages.
On the one hand, it is an attitude towards investment - keep thinking independently and fully respect the market.
is different from most domestic fund managers. Zheng Youwei is a Malaysian Chinese, so the perspective of the A-share market will naturally be slightly different. He often said that in the eyes of a person born overseas, China has no sunset industry and there are many opportunities in all walks of life. It is worth it to take the time to study every industry patiently.
For so many years, Zheng Youwei has encountered many times that the stock he chose is different from his expected trend. In addition to implementing the six-month stop loss investment method, he often reflects on himself.
"I tend to think that I am wrong, because I think the style of the entire Chinese market is very diverse. What we need to do is to improve our winning rate in stock selection, rather than blame the market." Zheng Youwei said.
On the other hand, it is decisive in investment - accurate judgment and quick action.
The new crown epidemic broke out in 2020, and A-shares opened and plummeted after the Spring Festival. Panic filled the entire market, but Zheng Youwei saw the opportunity and decisively overweight. On February 3, he found that the stock-to-bond ratio index reached 0.89 that day, which was basically close to the historical prompt mechanism of 0.9, which means that stocks have obvious attractiveness compared to bonds. In the fund's first quarter report disclosed later, he also wrote: "The stock-to-debt ratio indicator is near the historical extreme value. In terms of more than two quarters and more than two cycles, the winning rate of equity assets may be higher." If you look back at the market performance of this year, the Shanghai Composite Index rebounded strongly by 24.78% after falling that day, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 41.29% during the same period, and the ChiNext Index soared by 65.18%. Cathay Jiangyuan Advantage Selection, which adheres to the strategy of over-allocating equity assets, achieved a return rate of 88.71% during the same period.
Among them, in the third quarter of 2020, Zheng Youwei saw the opportunity of cyclical stocks and bought Dalian Chemical in large quantities.
"The latter part of the inventory destocking cycle, and the early stage of replenishing inventory is the best time to buy cyclical stocks." Zheng Youwei explained.
As expected, in the subsequent third-quarter report disclosed, a leading chemical stock newly added to Zheng Youwei's top ten heavily held stocks, and increased its holdings again in the subsequent fourth-quarter report disclosed. During the third quarter of 2020, the leading chemical industry rose by 50.7%.
(full text)
Risk warning: The views are for reference only and do not represent investment advice. The market is risky, so be cautious when investing.
Cathay Zhihe managed by Zheng Youwei was established for less than half a year, and Cathay Golden Dragon industry was managed for less than half a year, so its performance will not be listed for the time being.The performance of the remaining products in each stage is as follows: Cathay Jiangyuan was established on March 19, 2018, and Zheng Youwei started to manage it on June 14, 2019, and the performance benchmark of this product is the yield of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index * 50% + the yield of the CSI Comprehensive Bond Index * 50%. From 2018 to the first half of 2022, the performance growth rate/performance benchmark of A shares fund is -31.48%/-10.60%, 48.86%/19.92%, 85.10%/15.20%, 31.58%/0.30%, -0.99%/-3.56%; Cathay Value Preferred was established on January 10, 2019, and Zheng Youwei started to manage it on July 24, 2020, and the performance benchmark of this product is the yield of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index Rate *60% + China Bond Comprehensive Index yield *40%. The fund performance growth rate/performance benchmark in the first half of 2019-2022 was 42.19%/19.61%, 66.84%/16.24%, 37.72%/-1.95%, 1.42%/-5.21%; Cathay Zhiyuan was established on July 16, 2020, and Zheng Youwei began to manage it on July 16, 2020. The performance benchmark of this product is the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index yield *80% + China Bond Comprehensive Index yield *20%. The fund performance growth rate/performance benchmark in the first half of 2020-2022 was 10.66%/7.97%, 31.93%/-3.52%, -0.94%/-7.19%. Data source product periodic reports. my country's funds have a short operating time, and past performance does not represent the future, and other fund performance does not constitute a guarantee of the performance of this fund. Investors should read the fund legal documents carefully before purchasing and invest with caution.
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