Compared with oil prices, coal and natural gas prices have less impact on consumer prices, because household electricity and gas are usually regulated and the prices are more rigid.

For fossil fuels, they are the lifeblood of all economies and are all urgent needs.

Compared with oil prices, coal and natural gas prices have less impact on consumer prices, because household electricity and gas are usually regulated and the prices are more rigid.

Even so, in the industrial sector, rising gas prices can put producers who rely on natural gas to make chemicals or fertilizers in trouble.

These situations are particularly worrying, as they affect the already uncertain inflation outlook amid supply chain disturbances, rising food prices and stabilization of demand.

If energy prices can maintain their current levels, global fossil fuel output will increase to 4.7% this year from 4.1% of global GDP (our forecast in July). For next year, that percentage could be as high as 4.8%, up from the July forecast of 3.75%.

Assuming that half of the increase in oil, gas and coal costs are due to reduced supply, this means that global economic growth will fall by 0.3 percentage points this year and about 0.5 percentage points next year.

After reviewing the energy market, let’s review the metal market.

metal market mainly reviews copper and aluminum, and then makes a general review of other metals. I will no longer review iron ore and steel here because with the " carbon neutrality ", energy conservation and emission reduction are gradually strict, and the metal consumption of in developing countries will gradually shift to aluminum and copper tilt . It can be said that the proportion of aluminum and copper consumption will gradually increase in the future.

aluminum:

vertical shaft is the price percentage, with the closing price on January 4, 2021 at 1

Chart source: Tradingview

The era of electric vehicles has arrived, and aluminum and aluminum alloys have a large demand for electric vehicles and auxiliary facilities (charging piles, etc.). This new demand is enough to make aluminum prices rise. In addition, due to the epidemic this year, the production capacity of has declined, the supply chain is blocked by , and the general trend of commodities, aluminum prices have been rising.

is consistent with many commodities, and the highest price of aluminum also appeared at the end of October, and then fell sharply. After the decline, it started an upward trend again.

It can be foreseeable that China will be the largest consumer of aluminum in the future . Whether it is "carbon neutrality" or "overtaking on the curve" of electric vehicles in the automotive industry, a large amount of aluminum is required to complete it.

If we regard the decline in November as the speculation of hot money , then the subsequent price increase in December should be a real supply-demand relationship (of course, there is no deduction of the impact of the supply chain).

mentioned above that the demand for aluminum for electric vehicles, while copper is even more demanding for electric vehicles. In the era of electric vehicles, the demand for copper for automobile manufacturing is 4-5 times that of fuel vehicles.

Copper:

vertical axis is the price percentage, with the closing price on January 4, 2021 at 1

Chart source: Tradingview

The rise in copper prices is completely in line with expectations.

has several reasons:

The first point is because whether it is electric vehicles, this has been mentioned above;

2 Because the world is entering the application of clean energy is becoming the development direction considered by various countries, and copper and the aluminium mentioned above are metals with huge demand in the clean energy field;

33 Because the global supply chain crisis has not yet been officially lifted, the copper price, which is already unbalanced in supply and demand, may reach an unexpected new high;

444 According to Reuters , the Peruvian Pangbas copper mine cannot be reopened as expected, which means that supply and demand are still in an imbalance.

Copper price will soar, and will be announced in 2022.

In addition to copper and aluminum, we have to mention lithium and nickel, lithium battery, nickel battery , which are the two main technical routes for electric vehicles (or other electric vehicles) batteries.

The demand for lithium and nickel will increase with the large use of electric vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, the nickel futures of the Moscow Commodity Futures Exchange has risen by 20% . The following figure is the nickel futures trend chart of the Moscow Exchange.

vertical axis is the price percentage, with the closing price on January 4, 2021 at 1

Chart source: Tradingview

Lithium futures price, it has been rising all the way since trading on the Chicago Exchange on May 3, with an amazing increase of 159.13% in eight months. The following figure is the Chicago Exchange lithium futures price trend chart.

vertical axis is the price percentage, with the closing price on January 4, 2021 at 1

Chart source: Tradingview

According to Bloomberg's prediction, the demand for batteries of electric vehicles is terrifying, so lithium and nickel should still have a lot of room for growth, especially when lithium and nickel may become strategic resources, just like oil, if you want to use it, buy foreign ones first, because once the situation is tense, these non-renewable resources of may become the key to success or failure .

Source: Bloomberg, green is lithium, black is cobalt, gray is nickel

Since the author does not pay much attention to grain commodities, I will not review grains here. Please forgive me.

The epidemic will eventually pass. Perhaps after the epidemic, it will be a brand new era, and a better future is on the road.

I wish all readers a happy New Year and stay away from the epidemic.

Author: homoembroidery and homoethic