Today's hot spots
1. Price drops to obtain volume, DRAM market destocking may be completed in advance
2. Intel and AMD new U are flying, and DDR5 business opportunities have increased significantly
3. Taitung earthquake, Huabang Electric and South Asia Science and Technology: no major impact
4. Supply and demand relationship reversal? The chip industry collapses
5. TSMC Kaohsiung Factory is preparing to prepare ground and is expected to mass-produce 7/28nm process
6 in the next year. Central Electric Power and Olix are considering investing in Toshiba
01
price reduction and volume reduction, DRAM market may complete inventory in advance
According to Taiwan media "Business Times", due to the weak demand for consumer electronics such as smartphones, laptops and tablets, the DRAM market has shown an oversupply in the second half of the year. Although upstream DRAM factories continue to control supply and delay production expansion, in order to accelerate inventory sales, in order to accelerate inventory sales, the price reduction and volume reduction strategy has shown slightly in the near future. Industry players expect that the fourth quarter should be able to effectively reduce the inventory pressure of ODM/OEM factories and market channels, and inventory has the opportunity to complete sales in the first quarter next year.
legal person pointed out that although the decline in DRAM price in the third quarter has expanded, the shipment momentum has gradually increased. In addition to reducing inventory pressure, the price decline in the fourth quarter and next year is also expected to shrink, and the operation of DRAM factory is close to the bottom of the prosperity cycle. Since Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and other three companies will reduce capital expenditure next year, there is almost no new capacity available. In addition, the conversion of DDR4 to DDR5 with larger chip size will lead to a natural reduction in production capacity. The price of will reverse as early as mid-next year.
02
Intel and AMD's new U have taken flying, and DDR5 business opportunities have increased significantly
According to Taiwan's "Business Times", Intel's new consumer platform will be expected to be sold globally before the end of this year. All series simultaneously support DDR5 new specifications DRAM. In addition, AMD's recently launched Ryzen 7000 synchronously follows DDR5 specifications. The industry expects that DDR5 will be expected to become the mainstream of DRAM module manufacturers from the second quarter next year, which will drive a significant increase in DDR5 business opportunities.
Intel's new PC platform targeting the consumer market, Raptor Lake, has recently leaked its performance specifications. Its performance has improved a lot compared to the 12th generation, and will continue to support DDR5 specification DRAM. In addition, the AMD Ryzen 7000 that has been launched previously also supports DDR5. makes the DDR5 market penetration rate expected to rise rapidly under the promotion of two major PC chip manufacturers.
supply chain pointed out that it has been a fever of remote demand since this year, and the PC market has been adjusting inventory from upstream to the lowest downstream, and module factories have almost used DDR4 modules as the main force in shipment to accelerate inventory sales, so the penetration rate of DDR5 DRAM is not as expected.
However, the supply chain believes that from the current new case volume and inventory sales status, the storage module factory inventory sales opportunity has the opportunity to complete the sales in the first quarter of next year in advance. will start to attack DDR5-specific DRAM modules in the second quarter. It is expected that the mainstream market in the second half of next year will be DDR5, so the demand for power management ICs with applications is expected to increase significantly.
03
Taitung earthquake, Huabang Electric and South Asia Science: No major impact
According to Taiwan media "Juheng.com", the eastern part of Taiwan, China will have a magnitude 6.8 main earthquake and aftershock pairs with a scale of magnitude 6.8 will occur. Talking about the impact on the company, HuabangDi, a storage factory in , said yesterday (19) that some machines started a self-protection mechanism and rebooted, which had no significant impact on production.
Huabang Di pointed out that according to internal procedures, if the earthquake scale meets the evacuation standards, evacuation operations will be carried out as soon as possible and no injuries will be caused.
Huabang Power said that the earthquake did not affect the structure of the Zhongke Factory or Kaohsiung Factory, and the supply of water, electricity and various gases did not cause serious damage; some machines of the two factories started to restart the machine due to earthquakes.
, and another Taiwan-based storage factory, Nanyake, also stated that some machines in the factory started protective crashes and have been successfully resumed. The company's employees and families are safe, and the supply of raw materials and outsourcing companies have not been affected. The operation of Nanyake has no significant impact.
04 Supply and demand relationship reversal? The chip industry collapsed.
Recently, the semiconductor market has been rumored. The well-known analysis agency Malcolm Penn lowered his forecast for semiconductor growth in 2022 to single digits, and warned that there may be a double-digit decline in 2023, which is expected to fall by about 22% throughout the year. It also mentioned that the average chip price has begun to plummet in June.
Malcolm Penn analyzed that over the past few quarters, the growth of unit shipments of chips has exceeded the long-term average, which means that customers have been repeatedly ordering, causing concerns about semiconductor inventory adjustments to heat up. As customers start to cut orders, the average sales price has also dropped accordingly. It is reported that "the average selling price in June has begun to plummet", which is earlier than his expected third quarter of 2022. The average selling price of including IC fell from the peak of $1.35 in the second quarter of this year to $1.105 at the end of the quarter, a drop of 18.1%. As for the average selling price of logic, microchips and analog devices, it is only a matter of time before it is expected to decline in the third quarter of 2022.
The Economist previously wrote an article on the topic of "Will chip manufacturers fall into a super-large depression after experiencing a turbocharged boom?", saying that the "supply in short supply" of chips has turned into "oversupply"; Citigroup analyst Christopher Danely said that the market is facing the worst semiconductor recession since 2001, at least a decade, and even the worst recession in the past 20 years. It is expected that every company and every terminal market will undergo an adjustment.
05
TSMC Kaohsiung Factory is preparing to prepare ground and groundbreaking, and is expected to mass-produce the 7/28nm process in the following year
According to Taiwan media Economic Daily, TSMC announced in November last year that it would set up a factory in Kaohsiung, but construction has not started so far, which has attracted attention from the outside world. TSMC said on the 19th that the Kaohsiung factory plan remains unchanged and is expected to be groundbreaking this year. It is currently preparing for land preparation.
It is reported that TSMC Kaohsiung Factory is expected to start mass production in 2024, focusing on 7-nanometer and 28-nanometer processes.
06
3 Zhongbu Electric Power, Olix considers investing in Toshiba
According to the Japanese media Nikkei Shimbun, several Japanese companies, including Zhongbu Electric Power and Olix Co., Ltd., are considering investing in Toshiba companies, which are members of a consortium led by Tokyo private equity investment company Japan Industrial Partners Inc. The report did not cite sources.
According to the report, multiple consortiums are expected to make formal proposals for Toshiba's reorganization as early as the end of this month, including a consortium led by Japan Industrial Partners.
After shareholders rejected their plan to split into two, Toshiba has been soliciting restructuring proposals, including possible acquisitions.
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