mentions quartz , and perhaps many people will think of quartz watch , which is equated with "cheap". But in the secondary market and real scenarios, the seemingly inconspicuous quartz sand has set off a wave.
As the main raw material for the quartz crucible used to produce photovoltaic silicon wafers, the price of high-purity quartz sand doubles within one year. The main domestic producer of Quartz shares is even more "strange goods" in the secondary market. The stock price soared to more than 167 yuan this year, up 177.19% from the beginning of the year.
For a while, discussions about the difficulty of finding high-purity quartz sand are rampant. Some analysts even believe that the boredom link of the photovoltaic industry chain will be converted from silicon material to high-purity quartz sand.
But compared with the "noisy" at the capital level, downstream silicon wafer companies generally calm down. "Longi Green Energy's quartz sand supply is normal, which can meet the production needs of products." A staff member of Longi Green Energy told Finance Network. Many new and old silicon wafers have also expressed their normal supply.
"It is unlikely to become a big shortcoming. The cost structure of quartz crucibles account for a low proportion of the entire photovoltaic silicon wafer." Longzhong Information photovoltaic industry analyst Fang Wenzheng told Finance Network that in the next two years, it is expected that the supply and demand of high-purity quartz sand will remain in a tight balance. From a global perspective, there may even be an oversupply situation in 2024.
"Sand" gold digger
Generally speaking, the price of ordinary quartz sand is between 200-300 yuan/ton. The price of "high-purity quartz sand" which is only two words different has increased hundreds of times.
Why can high-purity quartz sand be sold at a high price? According to the content of silica , quartz sand can be divided into three categories: ordinary, exquisite and high-purity. Among them, high-purity quartz sand generally has a silica content of more than 99.99%, and is generally produced by high-grade natural quartz minerals through purification technology.
From the perspective of application fields, high-purity quartz sand is widely used in photovoltaics, semiconductors, communications and other fields. Due to its high temperature resistance and good thermal stability, high-purity quartz sand is mainly made into a container used for the crystal pulling process of silicon wafers - a quartz crucible, which is used to hold molten silicon and make crystal rods required for subsequent processes.
Image source: Oujing Technology Prospectus
According to the prospectus of Oujing Technology, a quartz crucible manufacturer, the quartz crucible is translucent and has two-layer structures inside and outside. The outer layer (opic layer) is a region with high bubble density, which plays a thermal insulation role; the middle inner layer is a 3-5mm transparent layer, called a bubble hollow layer, which directly affects the success rate of single crystal growth and the quality of crystal rods.
inner layer is the key to affecting the quality of quartz crucible. Therefore, the purity level of the outer quartz crucible needs to reach 4N5, but the purity level of the inner layer must reach a higher 4N8.
"Now, the high-purity quartz sand that can make the inner layer of crucible is relatively rare. The technical requirements of the inner layer of quartz sand are relatively high. Relying on natural ore, it is relatively scarce. The middle and outer layer are relatively better." Fang Wenzheng said that the global high-purity quartz raw material ore is mainly distributed in Africa, Russia, India, Brazil , and the United States. Now, enterprises that make high-purity quartz sand are relatively scarce in China. Some relatively small enterprises in Donghai County, Jiangsu Province are also doing it, but the output of mining high-purity quartz sand is limited, and Quartz shares should be the dominant one.
The outer sand of the current quartz crucible can be domestically produced, but the inner sand still depends on overseas mineral sources. Quartz Co., Ltd. stated that the company's quartz stone raw materials mainly come from overseas regions such as India, Norway , Russia, and Brazil.
At the same time, the company revealed during an institution that the product is mainly used for outer sand, with inner sand accounting for 30%, and will continue to increase in the second half of the year. And he was frank about the company's products, "There is a gap in mineral resources compared with Unimin, the purity is no problem, and there may be a gap in bubbles."
According to Fang Wenzheng, there are relatively rich mineral sources at home and abroad, but they are constrained by environmental protection factors. In addition, quartz sand mines are associated mines. For example, other construction mineral resources generated by American companies during mining are difficult to utilize, resulting in high mining costs and insufficient power to expand production.
So, is there an alternative? It is understood that there are currently synthetic high-purity quartz sand, but there are still disadvantages in terms of cost, product performance, etc.
Quartz Co., Ltd. revealed during the survey that the cost of synthesized quartz will not be less than 200,000/ton, which is about 10 times that of natural quartz sand.
According to Fang Wenzheng, the inner layer of the quartz crucible has certain requirements for the purity of high-purity quartz sand and the ratio of impurities. Although the purity of artificial quartz sand is higher than that of natural quartz sand, due to the lack of aluminum or other alkaline metals contained in natural high-purity quartz sand, the temperature resistance and deformation value are inferior to that of natural quartz sand. "The temperature resistance of artificial/synthetic quartz sand may be reduced by 100℃, and its service life is also lower than that of natural quartz sand."
In addition to being restricted by quartz raw material ore, the purification process is also one of the "thresholds" for the production of high-purity quartz sand.
Zhongtai Securities pointed out in a research report that the industry barrier of high-purity quartz sand lies in "raw ore resources + purification process". Stable and high-quality ore supply + matching purification technology are two necessary conditions for obtaining high-purity quartz sand. Currently, only three companies in the world, Unimin, Norway TQC and Quartz Co., Ltd., have the ability to mass produce high-purity quartz sand.
According to Tianfeng Securities estimates, from the perspective of photovoltaic-grade quartz sand production capacity, Unimin shipped about 30,000 tons in 2021, accounting for about 45% of the market share. Quartz shares shipped 14,000 tons second only to Unimin, with a market share of 21%.
"The spring river water warms up and duck prophet". With its advantage of being "dominate" in China and facing the continuous growth of market demand, Quartz Co., Ltd. is the first to enjoy the dividends of industry development.
According to financial data, in the first half of this year, Quartz Co., Ltd.'s revenue increased by 58% year-on-year to 697 million yuan; net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 156.4% year-on-year to 289 million yuan, exceeding the full-year profit level of 281 million yuan last year.
Company stated that in the first half of 2022, the market demand for quartz materials in the photovoltaic field increased significantly year-on-year, coupled with the gradual release of new production capacity, production and sales were both prosperous.
sub-tracks that are heated by photovoltaic
It is understood that quartz crucibles are essential "consumables" for the production of photovoltaic silicon wafers and semiconductor silicon wafers.
To ensure the purity of single crystal silicon wafer , the quartz crucible will be scrapped after heating and pulling crystals once or several times, which is a consumable. Therefore, the demand and price of high-purity quartz sand/quartz crucibles are often affected by the output of semiconductor silicon wafers and photovoltaic silicon wafers.
Under the stimulation of the "dual carbon" target, photovoltaic silicon wafers have set off a "surging" wave of production expansion. According to SMM's forecast, the new domestic silicon wafer production capacity in 2022 will be 122.5GW, which is about 30% of the total domestic silicon wafer production capacity by the end of 2021. This ignited the downstream enthusiasm for purchasing high-purity quartz sand/quartz crucibles.
"At present, the market demand for high-purity quartz sand is relatively tight." A staff member of the Securities Department of Quartz Co., Ltd. told Finance Network that while the company is currently guaranteeing its own semiconductor business, most of the high-purity quartz sand is exported to photovoltaic crucible companies.
In addition, under the trend of large-scale photovoltaic silicon wafers and the continuous increase in N-type silicon wafers, the demand for high-purity quartz sand/quartz crucibles has also increased simultaneously.
"P type silicon wafer can pull 5 single crystal silicon rods in one casing, and N type can pull about 3 silicon rods." Fang Wenzheng told Finance Network that industrial silicon to polysilicon is actually a process of melting and purification. During this period, more and more impurities are accumulated in the crucible, and N type silicon wafers will have higher purity requirements, which means that the frequency of replacing the quartz crucible of N type silicon wafers is higher.
According to a research report by China Securities, under the trend of large-scale silicon wafers, the size of quartz crucibles continues to increase, and the weight also increases accordingly, and the demand for high-purity quartz sand will also increase.
"Although the semiconductor industry also needs high purity quartz sand, the current situation is mainly because the photovoltaic industry has driven the strong demand for quartz crucible products, which has led to the shortage of high purity quartz sand, and the price has also risen." Qi Haikun, a senior new energy expert, introduced to the Finance Network that the raw ore of high purity quartz sand is mainly abroad, and my country needs to import a large amount. The impact of the epidemic and the uneven shipping in the environment, has exacerbated the shortage of high purity quartz sand.
China Securities analysis stated that benefiting from the demand for photovoltaic installed capacity, the demand for high-purity quartz sand for photovoltaic quartz crucibles is expected to grow rapidly, and the average annual compound growth rate of demand from 2022 to 2025 is expected to reach 25.5%.The demand for high-purity quartz sand in semiconductors and fiber fields has also grown steadily.
is difficult to become a "bottleneck" link
Due to the long-term expansion cycle of production than silicon wafers and component links, coupled with factors such as power restrictions and production shutdowns, the supply of silicon materials has been in short supply since 2021, and the price has continued to rise and exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, an increase of more than 3 times. "Waiting for rice to be put into the pot" has become the norm for many downstream companies.
The familiar plot seems to be staged in the high-purity quartz sand industry.
As mentioned above, the outbreak of photovoltaic demand has led to a significant expansion of production of silicon wafer manufacturers, driving an increase in demand for quartz crucibles required for silicon wafer processing. According to Tianfeng Securities' research report, the ton price of domestic high-purity quartz sand has increased from 20,000 yuan in 2021 to between 45,000 yuan and 50,000 yuan per ton.
The raw material of quartz crucible, will high-purity quartz sand take over the silicon material and become the "bottleneck" link of the photovoltaic industry chain?
In this regard, Longi Green Energy told Finance Network that the supply of quartz sand is normal and can meet the production needs of products.
TCL Zhonghuan once responded to investors on the interactive platform that the service life of quartz crucibles is related to the quality, type, production process and production products. The company maintains good strategic cooperative relationships with manufacturers in all links to ensure future use needs.
In addition, Shangji CNC, Shuangliang Energy Saving, and Beijing Yuntong also stated that the supply of quartz crucibles can meet the company's silicon wafer production needs.
Finance Network noticed that at present, there is a strong "binding" relationship between leading quartz crucible manufacturers and leading silicon wafer companies.
Oujing Technology, which is about to become the "first stock of quartz crucible", has about 90% of its revenue from TCL Central. Before 2015, Zhonghuan Photovoltaic, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Zhonghuan Co., Ltd., was once an important shareholder.
. According to its prospectus, among its peers, Ningxia Jinglong's main customers are Longi Green Energy, with customers accounting for about 70%, 50% and 40% from 2018 to 2020 respectively; Sunshine Silicon Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Jingao Solar Energy ; Jinzhou Youxin Electronic Materials Co., Ltd. is a major supplier of Jinzhou Sunshine Energy.
In addition to the relatively complete industrial chain supporting facilities of leading companies, more importantly, the proportion of quartz crucibles in silicon wafer costs is far less than that of silicon materials, and its price increase will not be significantly transmitted to the downstream.
According to Fang Wenzheng, the proportion of quartz crucibles in the entire cost structure of photovoltaic silicon wafers is relatively low. "According to previous data, even if a ton of quartz sand increases by 10,000 yuan, the cost of silicon wafers will only increase by about 3 cents, and it should not become a shortcoming in the photovoltaic industry."
But he also added that the shortage of high-purity quartz sand may affect the start of construction of silicon wafer manufacturers. "If there is really no quartz crucible, there is no way to melt polysilicon, and there is no way to pull . But now there are also artificial/synthetic quartz sand that can be made into quartz crucibles, and some companies can use it. It will not be a special constraint."
In his opinion, "It may have an impact on some small silicon wafer companies, and it is likely that it will not affect leading silicon wafer companies." How long can
grow?
is bustling with people for profit. Although high-purity quartz sand has shown an imbalance in supply and demand, some manufacturers and new entrants have made arrangements one after another.
In June this year, Quartz Co., Ltd. adjusted its annual production expansion plan from 15,000 tons of high-purity quartz sand to 60,000 tons of electronic semiconductor quartz material projects, and the total investment amount was adjusted from the original plan of 330 million to 1.05 billion.
The aforementioned staff member of Quartz Co., Ltd. told Finance Network that the mineral sources of high-purity quartz sand are very rich at home and abroad, and the construction cycle of 60,000 tons of production capacity is 18 months, and it will be released by the end of next year.
After the expansion plan was announced, China Securities immediately released a research report comment: "The expansion of high-purity quartz sand production capacity exceeds expectations." It is predicted that the supply of high-purity quartz sand for photovoltaic single crystal crucibles will be 71,000 tons and 99,000 tons respectively from 2022 to 2023, and the supply and demand gap will be -01,000 tons and -02,000 tons respectively. The supply and demand of the industry is expected to remain tightly balanced, and there is still room for price improvement.
In February this year, Philippe, a leading quartz material company, announced that his grandson Rongjian Technology plans to increase capital and expand shares to invest in the construction of a new "20,000 tons of ultra-high-purity quartz sand project" to expand the production scale of high-purity quartz sand, increase the company's supply chain guarantee efforts, and meet the market's demand for high-purity quartz sand.
In addition, Kaisheng Technology disclosed on the interactive platform that in the synthesis of high-purity quartz sand business, Kaisheng Technology's 5,000-ton production line is still under construction and is planned to be completed by the end of 2023. The production capacity of photovoltaic silica is 1,000 tons, which can be used for the inner layer of photovoltaic crucibles. In the future, the expansion plan will be planned according to the specific situation of the mass production project.
talked about the market prospects of high-purity quartz sand, Longi Green Energy staff added: "At this stage, the industry needs both imported and domestic products. Benefiting from the broad industry prospects, the demand for high-purity quartz sand in the photovoltaic industry continues to increase. Some domestic quartz sand manufacturers have begun to expand their production capacity. The supply of high-purity quartz sand will further increase in the future."
"From the survey of the output and demand of each company, the supply and demand ratio is about 1, and there is no large supply and demand gap." In Fang Wenzheng's view, high-purity quartz sand will be in a tight balance in the next 2-3 years. From a global perspective, there may even be an oversupply situation in 2024.
Li Lu/Wen
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