After TSMC successfully completed the 5nm order for Huawei , it is impossible for it to take Huawei's orders in the short term. At the same time, after TSMC completes Huawei's other foundry businesses such as 7nm chips and 12nm chips, if the ban does not change much, the chip foundry business between the two companies will fall into a state of stagnation. Faced with this situation, Huawei will naturally not sit still and wait for death. On the one hand, it actively transfers its foundry business of mid- and low-end chips to SMIC , and on the other hand, it is also discussing the possibility of foundrying high-end chips with other semiconductor companies. There were rumors before that Huawei would give up some mobile phone markets in exchange for Samsung to produce its own 5nm chips and 7nm chips at the cost of giving up some mobile phone markets. We have done an analysis before and believe that this is unlikely. For details, it can be seen that
. However, the problem now is that Huawei's 5nm chips have never been delivered since this month. After TSMC's delivery, there will be no follow-up to the 7nm and 12nm mobile phone chips, which will inevitably have a huge impact on Huawei's entire mobile phone business. When these chips are assembled on the mobile phone, Huawei will face the dilemma of no chip available. Not to mention launching new products, it is a problem whether it can even maintain the inventory of 5G mobile phone . And even if Huawei is willing to purchase MediaTek or even Qualcomm chips, it also requires an application for a relevant license. Although MediaTek has sold its own Dimensity chip to Huawei, its attitude is not very clear after the ban is escalated; and even if Qualcomm is willing to sell chips to Huawei, it is probably not difficult.
What’s more important is that for many people, the Kirin chip is the soul of Huawei mobile phone . Without Kirin chips, Huawei phones with Qualcomm and MediaTek chips, are there so many people willing to pay for it? After all, from now on, it seems that , Xiaomi , vivo and other mobile phones that use MediaTek chips are even better in terms of cost performance.
In addition to Samsung's refusal to manufacture chips for Huawei, Huawei has many more troubles recently. For example, Canada has officially announced that it has excluded Huawei in the procurement of 5G devices and has turned to Samsung in full... Samsung has recently actively expanded its 5G device customer base in North American countries and regions, and the results are relatively obvious. Currently, Samsung's global share in the 5G device market has reached 23.3%. Although it is not as good as Huawei and Ericsson, it is in a relatively fierce momentum. It has successively won orders from telecom operators such as Canadian Videotron, Canadian Telus, US Cellular, New Zealand Spark, and the increase in share this year is a foregone conclusion.
In addition, Huawei's decline in the 5G mobile phone market also directly gave MediaTek an opportunity. With the uncertain prospects of Kirin chips being cut off, in addition to Qualcomm, MediaTek is also favored by industry insiders. It is reported that with the outstanding performance of Dimensity chips and the fact that Huawei chips are cut off, MediaTek has the hope to win more than 60% of Huawei's original 5G chip orders. Including overseas stock markets, they are also optimistic about MediaTek. Many experts have adjusted MediaTek's estimated stock price to its historical highest point, and have also significantly increased MediaTek's estimated 5G chip shipments this year and next year.
Of course, the situation is not without any change at this moment. Huawei was allowed to cooperate with American manufacturers in 5G technology before, which is a signal. This may allow Qualcomm and MediaTek to sell 5G chips to Huawei, but it does not allow TSMC and other foundries to help Huawei produce chips. If this is true, at least Huawei's mobile phones will continue to develop. Even if they cannot use their own chips, they can still maintain the continuation of mid-to-high-end market products. After all, there is hope only when you are alive, right?
Finally, if you really want to be uncontrollable, then the only way out is to continue to develop your own high-tech and high-end manufacturing. Even if we have the best expectations for Huawei, the reality is that no matter how beautiful we think, our lifeline is indeed in the hands of others. Only when we can also produce high-performance lithography machines with completely independent intellectual property rights and can manufacture the most advanced chips, can we not look at others' faces!
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