article as the title, I will prepare an active fund for everyone every year, which is to select active funds in the entire market for evaluation.
each time takes nearly a month, with more than 20,000 words, and the content is comparable to a fund encyclopedia. If you can't finish reading it in a short while, then collect it first.
However, this article only provides the choice of investment tools and does not provide a path to get rich. Funds are risky, so everyone must be responsible for their wallets.
Next, open the main text, action
The market in 2022 is relatively sluggish, and the average performance of active stock funds is counted. From the beginning of the year to March, the return is -10%, and the median in the stock market is -7.8%.
The industry base led by the track collapsed almost entirely, and the returns of active funds were also collectively overturned.
However, with the correction and digestion of core assets, the current risk is far lower than in 2021, and it can even be said to be the golden range of equity fund layout .
, especially after 21 years of sharp retracement of many core assets, the previously hot medical industry has pulled back 45% from a high level. For example, Chinese stock , has pulled back 60% from a high level, and consumption and new energy have also pulled back 20% to 30%. How much does it mean to increase if you want to return to the previous high?
Chinese Internet: Up 150%+
CSI Medical: Up 70%+
Liquor, new energy: Up 40%+
Liquor, new energy: Up 40%+
Friends who have just started to study fund layout should be glad that your starting point for investment is much better than most investors. After all, your cost is much lower than them, and your profit opportunities are greatly increased.
As long as you choose to buy when the valuation is reasonable or even undervalued, the market will definitely give us rich returns when the next wave of water release cycle arrives.
So at this stage of cost-effectiveness, I want to write a serious article about how to buy funds.
content mainly covers multiple sector direction funds such as pan-theme equity-oriented fund, industry theme fund , Hong Kong stock market, bond fund and other funds.
directory is as follows:
First take one Zhang’s fund style chart for the entire market of funds in 2022 is recommended to collect it first ~
Next, the dry goods output mode will be turned on~
Pan-theme sector is actually the simplest investment model. For 99% of investors, I try to recommend investing in this type of investment.
pan-theme active fund, in short, it is handed over to the fund manager to screen the industry and individual stocks , and try to achieve the industry and individual stocks scattered as much as possible.
Theme funds limit the industry theme. Since the industry also has valuations and cycles, if you accidentally hit a high level, you may lose money. Therefore, the investment difficulty of industry active funds is much higher than that of pan-theme funds. Be careful when choosing.
My personal suggestion is:
Newcomers first build a bottom position around the active foundation of the pan-themed. As a nuclear star configuration, this part of the configuration ratio can account for 100%, and the minimum is also recommended to be 50%~80%, because pan-themed funds are the simplest investment model and are not prone to errors.
and the remaining 20%~50%, you can filter some industry theme funds you like as satellite configuration.
. One of the misunderstandings that many novices make when buying funds for the first time is to blindly buy funds based on the recommendations of platforms such as Alipay .
, especially industry funds. Many novices think that some hot industries, such as seeing new energy, medical care, and consumption, are all good long-term tracks. Even if they rise, they completely ignore the valuation and directly enter without thinking.
Some people start to move after a slight pullback, buying in a stutter style, but they don’t know that they have been trapped on the hillside.
For example, Ge Lan, who was scolded this year, had a yield of 193% in 2018-20, and was included in the Alipay gold selection list, which looked very fierce.
When it has a 1-20% callback, many investors start to buy at the bottom of . The scale of China-Europe medical care continues to increase significantly against the trend, but the result is that it keeps falling.
was removed from the Alipay Golden Choice List this year after its outrageous performance.
Similarly, it is like the top 1 from 2013 to 2015, China Post's strategic emerging industry managed by Ren Zesong , and its performance is also no1 in the same period. If you enter the market after a 27% withdrawal in 2016, you will be at the bottom of the issuance for 17 years and become a tragic buyer.
But if you study it carefully, you will find that this guy's base is basically the same as , the growth trend of the market , and buying it is almost like buying the high-level GEM .
These cases fully demonstrate that the platform recommends that good funds that have risen may not be reliable. Do not blindly follow the celebrity fund managers.
In fact, has many better funds, but they do not need to be recommended by the platform. As the saying goes, you cannot go to in places with a lot of people. Remember.
How to choose an active stock fund? You just need to add one step in the base selection process.
First distinguish the investment style of active fund managers.
Then find the best comprehensive performance fund in the same style to allocate.
The reason why so many investors are struggling with the mine is because they do not distinguish the style of the fund. They buy the same style of funds that have risen in the past two years. For example, Manshou Funds are all holding positions in Moutai, Hengrui , CATL and other blue-chip stocks , and the risks are completely concentrated.
took over at a high level and fell together when it fell.
Reference around February 21, the worst market decline was Market growth Style index, and the performance of those who use market growth as their style Gelan, Quyang , Zhang Kun , Xiao Nan, Feng Bo, Liu Yanchun , etc., which have been based on the market growth, have all had terrible results.
Then benchmark against the value of small and medium-sized caps in the same period, you will find that the performance of fund managers with small and medium-sized caps in the same period is very outstanding.
So it doesn’t matter which fund you buy. If it doesn’t match the market style, it will be useless to do anything.
Then again, what are the types of fund styles?
is distinguished according to the market value and growth of stock selection. There are four main types:
If you can't distinguish the style clearly? Then I will tell you directly, be cautious about buying the style of the top-notch funds in the past two to three years.
For example, in 21 years, you can see that the most powerful players promoted by various platforms are basically large-scale growth style funds. At this time, it was too late to enter because the market growth style that fund managers are good at has reached an extreme. At this time, it is likely that they will take over at a high level.
If we cleverly avoid the growth style of the market and find the funds that rise the best in the small and medium-sized market value style, we can greatly avoid losses.
lists several examples, Cao Mingchang , he belongs to the small and medium-sized market value style, mainly buying some companies with very low valuations and high dividends.How to distinguish
?
We can compare his fund with the typical value index CSI dividend, and we will find that his style is very similar to CSI dividend and has basically never drifted. This is a typical small and medium-sized value style fund.
China Europe Value Discovery strategy with low valuation as the core has successfully outperformed the dividend of CSI for many years, achieving a yield of 26.67% in 21 years, while most large-cap growth style funds have negative returns in 2021.
China-Europe Value Discovery PK Dacheng CSI dividend
So although we see that Lao Cao's performance in 2019 and 20 years is very poor, and looking at the historical performance ranking of the funds in the entire market, we will definitely not be able to choose it, but after comparison, we will find that his performance in 21 years is actually very good and ranked among the top.
So why? Because the value style of small and medium-sized markets has become more popular.
is like I am a basketball player. This year, I held the basketball game . Although I can't compare to O'Neal , I am still better than ordinary masters.
When we discuss active funds, we must not bypass the market style and discuss performance.
If Zhang Kun wants to find someone to compete, he can only find Qu Yang, Xiao Nan, Yanchun, Ge Lan, Shaoxing, they are all styles of growing the market.
If Xie Zhiyu wants to compare, he can only compare Dong Chengfei and Rao Xiaopeng. They are in a balanced style of the market.
If you want to compare Cao Mingchang, you can only compare Xu Yan and Qiu Dongrong. They are of small and medium-sized price-oriented styles.
Basic selection correct method:
Try to disperse and configure different investment styles, with stable performance and top
Error method:
only choose the best performance in the past three years.
First choose a fund manager, first understand his style roughly, find an undervalued style, and then talk about performance.
How to distinguish the style of fund managers? If you have experience in stock trading, you can directly look at the above quadrant chart.
can be roughly divided into four quadrants: Market value, market growth, small and medium-sized market value, and small and medium-sized market growth.
The easiest thing is to see which holdings the fund manager has and which quadrant it falls in. If you can't distinguish them clearly, don't worry, I will help you divide them later.
We can simply divide fund managers into four style quadrants.
is a typical countercyclical big blue chip , typical representatives are companies such as Moutai, Hengrui Medicine , and CATL with large market value and certain growth potential.
For example, Moutai company's Moutai liquor , although the retail price in the market is only 1,499, the real market price is as high as more than 2,000, which means that Moutai has at least 30% room for price increase.
So as long as Moutai raises the ex-factory price a little every year, and with the already in short supply, its performance can basically be confirmed to rise every year.
Therefore, if we take Moutai for a long time, there will be a return in the end, but the rate of return is just the rate of return.
As long as expected rate of return > capital cost , the funds will continue to buy Moutai until the difference is filled.
For example, under the background of the 20-year epidemic, the interest rate of US Treasury has decreased and the cost of overseas capital has decreased. Therefore, Moutai has continued to rise continuously, with foreign capital + domestic capital rushing, and Moutai has risen by 150% in total from the beginning of 2019 to the end of 2020.
But with the release of money, Feder realized that inflation is becoming more and more uncontrollable, and the economy has also begun to recover, companies have begun to resume work and production, and are willing to borrow money to invest, so the Fed has started the pace of hike rate .
interest rate hike means that the US Treasury interest rate will rise, and overseas capital costs will rise. After the capital costs will rise, the expected rate of return is <>
When I saw that Moutai's expected rate of return was not as good as the capital cost, I evacuated, evacuated, and evacuated.
Therefore, many Mao stocks represented by Moutai have experienced valuation killing this year.
Moutai has fallen by 28% since February, the highest in 2021.
and the corresponding style fund managers have failed one after another.
The most typical ones are idol Zhang Kun and Central European Glen~
It can be expected that the market interest rates in the US may continue to rise in the future, and these Mao stocks will still be under considerable pressure.
Therefore, if you have a style of market growth base, you need to be prepared for the callback at any time.
Representative characters: Fu Pengbo, Zhu Shaoxing , Liu Yanchun, Liu Gesong , Qu Yang, Ge Lan.
value style is typical stocks such as Vanke A, Industrial Bank , and China Ping An .
Companies with value style are generally strong in cyclicality. When the economy improves, corporate profits will increase rapidly.
For example, upstream companies that make steel, cement, and nonferrous raw materials, downstream companies must start construction and make products, and they must not import materials?
In addition, the economy has recovered, and the bank's bad debts have decreased, and the performance will naturally improve, and the dividends distributed will naturally increase.
, and the value style is also the most favorable in the interest rate hike environment. Because generally, interest rate hikes will only be initiated in the context of a stronger economy, interest rate hikes can also increase the interest rate spread of banking and insurance companies . So like the global economy began to recover again in 21, the overall performance of value stocks will naturally be strong.
Representative characters: Cao Mingchang, Xu Yan, Qiu Dongrong, Jiang Cheng, Wang Haifeng
Compared with the value style, the difference between large-cap companies and small-cap companies is that their market value is different.
General investors do not need to excessively distinguish between large-cap and small-cap style funds, but the market value style can also be appropriately diversified.
For example, since last year, the market growth style has reached an extreme. Large-cap companies such as Moutai, Wuliangye , and Hengrui Medicine have all risen to the sky. So if you seek stability at this time, avoid the market and choose small-cap style funds, which can avoid the risk of a large pullback.
Just try not to go to crowded places.
So the question is, which type of fund with relatively lower risks and more optimistic in the second half of 2022?
I think the overall value style may have some advantages in the future.
Then we continue to look at the comparison of value style and growth style.
Ten years ago, the valuation of the market growth was generally only ten times, but now the valuation has reached 25 times. Taking consumption as an example, the valuation of consumer stocks in the past was generally more than ten times, but now it is generally starting at 230. Compared with the market value, the valuation of the market growth is still relatively high.
So if you choose value, is it better to have a small market value or a large market value?
I made another curve to verify it. It turns out that the value of the small market is not much different from the valuation of the large market value, and it is relatively balanced overall.
However, referring to the historical In the Fed's interest rate hike cycle, the performance of the market value is slightly stronger than the small-cap value. In addition, the market value in 2021 is far behind the small-cap value. From the perspective of security and cost-effectiveness, has a greater room for growth than the small-cap value.
We refer to the three Fed interest rate hike cycles of 03-06, 12-13, and 16-18. The market value outperformed the small-cap value in the three cycles and had distinct advantages.
Considering that 22-23 is likely to be a rate hike cycle, so overall, I prefer funds with a market value style in 22 years.
But I still emphasize that it is not recommended to directly use a single style of stuart. Try to match multiple styles to reduce the volatility of the fund portfolio.
For example, Basic growth + market value + small and medium-sized growth + small and medium-sized value , you can also add corresponding balanced style , so that effective risk dispersion can be achieved.
As a combination example.
Shenyufei + Galaxy Smart Connect Theme (Big Market Growth)
Feng Yong + Xingye Juli (Big Market Value)
Yang Xiaobin + Golden Eagle Industry Integration (Big Market Equilibrium)
Zhang Xiaoquan + Ping An Xinxin Pioneer (Small and Medium Market Growth)
Zhang Xiaoquan + Ping An Xinxin Pioneer (Small and Medium Market Growth)
Zhang Xiaoquan + Ping An Xinxin Pioneer (Small and Medium Market Growth)
Cao Mingchang + China-Europe Growth Preferential (Small and Medium Cap Value)
Wang Chuanglian + Nuoan Anxin (Small and Medium Cap Equilibrium)
When configuring, these six types of funds are allocated equal weights, and the trend is much more stable than a single style (if we are particularly optimistic about funds with large-scale value styles, we can also appropriately increase some positions and proportion).
Choose the best active fund in the corresponding style to form a combination, which is easier to outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and does not have to bear too much fluctuation.
I also made a thorough classification of most of the high-performance fund managers in the market based on investment style and industry style:
In 2022, there are mainly 8 fund managers who are more optimistic about in the market value style.
are: Xingye Feng Xuan, Anxin Yuan Wei/Chen Yifeng, Wanjia Huanghai/Gaoyuan, Nuoan Cai Yubin, Huabao Cai Murong, ICBC Credit Suisse Yang Xinxin .
Below I will choose a few representative players to talk about it in detail:
Xingye Feng Xuan: latest player included in Taurus Twenty, Master of Economics of Renmin University, CFA, has nearly 20 years of experience in the industry, has a fund management period of 9 and a half years, and is currently the director of Industrial Investment, with a lot of experience.
represents fund Xingye Juli (001272) . Since Feng Xuan took over the management in 2018 to the end of 2021, it has steadily outperformed the same period Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index every year.
He is an equity fund manager in absolute return style. The drawdown is well controlled, with a maximum drawdown of 11% in three years, which is the best drawdown control in deep value.
Because of the pursuit of absolute returns, it will reduce its position appropriately when overvalued, and stock selection is also very stable.
Currently, its industry choices are relatively concentrated, and most of its positions are placed in financial real estate and consumption, which is a typical market value style.
His fund is small and new, and the fund manager team holds more than 2 million yuan. The interests are highly consistent with themselves, which is worth considering.
Anxin Yuan Wei: is also one of the twenty Taurus players included this year. He was a Ph.D. in physics, has done scientific research, and after entering the fund industry, he has studied many industries such as computers, steel, and nonferrous metals. He also bought growth stocks in the early stage. After 2018, he began to specialize in value stocks and has been managing fund for nearly 6 years.
represents fund Anxin New Normal Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Selection (001583) , since taking over management in April 2016 to the end of 2021, in the complete 6 years, 5 wins and 1 loss, and only 2020 underperformed the same period of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300.
Its characteristic is that the control of price and value must be carried out with the ultimate calculation. The stock selection standard is "value is significantly higher than the transaction price". Choose a company with sufficient safety margin to achieve long-term preservation and appreciation of assets.
In a word, he is a fund manager who likes to buy low valuations.Currently, he mainly holds real estate and related infrastructure industries, and also assists in banks.
is more than ten times the valuation compared to Feng Xuan. Yuan Wei's top ten holdings are as low as only 6.5 times, and PB is only 1.2 times. He is one of the fund managers with the lowest holdings in the industry. His fund currently holds more than one million~
operation style, Yuan Wei's turnover rate is also relatively high, preferring trading rotation. For example, in the fourth quarter's holdings, it has added Hong Kong stocks and real estate leaders.
His performance this year is also high among several market value styles. In the case of general decline, it still has good positive returns.
Trading type, high-performance large-cap value style fund managers are also relatively rare. His management scale is only 2.5 billion, and his flexibility is good, which is in line with his style. The disadvantage of
is that its drawdown is relatively large, and its performance in the past three years has also been relatively low.
Nuoan Cai Yubin: has employment experience in the IMI petrochemical industry and is very good at chemical industry. It has outstanding capabilities in this area. The performance of fund performance, risk control, new stock issuance and other aspects of management are at a relatively good level. Representative Fund Nuoan Low-carbon economy (001208), took over management in January 2019 to the end of 2021, steadily outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period.
Cai Yubin's investment strategy is to adhere to undervaluation + basic excellent companies + reasonable valuation, and hold high-quality assets with reasonable valuation for a long time.
The disadvantage is that it has started to manage funds in 2018 and has a relatively short career.
If you want to focus on pro-cyclical directions, you can consider Nuoan's Cai Yubin.
Huabao Cai Murong: One of the few players who adhere to the market value style and have excellent performance. They are also senior researchers in the resource cycle industry. They have been managing funds for more than 9 years. They have done everything, such as researchers, analysts, research assistants in the research department, fund manager assistants, traders, etc.
The representative fund of his market value style is Huabao Value Discovery (005445) , which has outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period since its establishment.
Tai's holding style pays great attention to valuation. The average price-to-earnings ratio of the top ten holdings is only about 12 times and the price-to-book ratio is about 1.2 times, mainly banks, securities, and real estate.
Under the background of real estate being rubbed for several years, it is not easy to achieve certain excess returns compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, which also shows that his stock selection ability is fine.
Cai’s base is currently only 200 million, and it is very good in terms of new stocks and flexibility. As a market value defensive strategy option, it is worth considering.
ICBC Credit Suisse Yang Xinxin: Industry researcher , he has also worked as an investment assistant, has been in the industry for nearly 14 years, has more than 8 years of fund management, and is also a veteran driver.
represents the fund ICBC-RIC Innovation Power (000893) . Since taking over management in February 2019 to the end of 2021, it has 3 wins and 1 loss. Only in 2019 underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period.
Yang Xinxin is of super deep value, paying great attention to the industry dispersion and cost-effectiveness of individual stocks, and selecting individual stocks in balanced industry allocation, striving to obtain excess returns.
Yang Xinxin has extremely strict requirements on valuation. The average holdings of the top ten positions are 9.6 times, and the average dividend yield of the holdings is even as high as 4.3%, which is a typical high dividend strategy.
If you want to pursue purely deep market value, you can consider ICBC Credit Suisse Yang Xinxin.
In 2022, I am more optimistic about the market growth style fund managers mainly include the above 9.
are: Yinhua Sun Beilin/Fang Jian, Galaxy Shen Yufei, Changan Xu Xiaoyong, Guotai Lin Xiaocong, Taixin Wu Bingtao, CCC Tao Can, ICBC Credit Suisse Zhang Yufan, and Huaan Wang Chun.
Next, I will select 3 representative players to talk about it in detail:
Among them, Yinhua Sun Beilin and Galaxy Shen Yufei are both players of Taurus Twenty, and Jianxin Tao Can is the former fund manager of Taurus Twenty.
Yinhua Sun Beilin: Master of Economics, CFA, industry + macro researcher, has been in the industry for nearly 18 years, and has served as two fund companies, Dacheng and Yinhua. They have been in the fund management for 9 years and are a powerful female player.
represents fund Yinhua Active Growth (005498) . Since he managed it in March 2018 to the end of 2021, it has continuously and steadily outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period.
Sun Beilin's investment style is similar to Zhang Kun, Qu Yang, Liu Yanchun, Xiao Nan, etc., and has significant excess returns in the large consumer sector and belongs to the typical blue chip growth style.
But her performance is not inferior to these celebrity fund managers, and her management scale is less than 1/20 of the few mentioned above, smaller and more flexible.
Galaxy God Yufei: Ph.D. in economics, joined Galaxy in 2007, and has more than ten years of investment research experience.
represents fund Galaxy Smart Connect Theme (519644) , which was managed by him from the end of 2015 to the end of 2021. In the complete six years, 4 wins and 2 losses, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index in the previous period in 2016 and 2017.
It pays more attention to retracement control and has relatively balanced subdivided targets, such as the latest holdings include military industry, materials, chips, medicine, consumer electronics, software, liquor, automobiles, batteries, etc.
He not only has good performance in the market growth style, but also has a better drawdown control. His Galaxy Smart Connect theme's maximum drawdown in the past three years is only 18%, which is smaller than the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the same period.
In addition, Shen Yufei is good at holding shares for a long time and has a low turnover rate. For example, his long-term heavy holdings in Luxshare Precision has a maximum return of more than 10 times since 2016.
Shenyufei's management scale is only 2.3 billion. The scale of this Galaxy Smart Connect theme is 270 million, and it has stronger operation flexibility. It is very flexible whether it is new stocks or stock selection.
Jianxin Tao Can: Peking University’s financial science class, joined the Jianxin Fund Company after graduation in 2007, and went from a researcher to the current general manager of the equity investment department. He has been in the industry for 14 years and has been in the fund management for 10 years, and is also an experienced driver.
represents the fund. It is Construction Corporate Reform Dividend (000592) . It was managed by him from May 2014 to the end of 2021. In the complete seven years, it had 5 wins and 2 losses, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period in 2016 and 2018, with steady long-term returns.
Tao Can is the first old fund manager to smell and start to invest heavily in the new energy industry. Of course, his circle of capabilities is far more than new energy, but also includes consumption, medicine, traditional manufacturing, etc.
Therefore, I prefer his pan-themed funds. How to choose industries and individual stocks depends on him, and mainly his experience and performance.
For example, his Jianxin Xinli (001858) , the scale is only 420 million, and it is also suitable for new issuance and flexibility.
In 2022, I mainly pay attention to the above 12 fund managers.
are: Xingquan Xie Zhiyu/Qianxing, Xinhua Luan Chao, Jianxin Wang Dongjie, Jinying Yang Xiaobin, Guofu Xu Lirong , Boshi Chen Pengyang, Penghua Dai Gang, Bank of Communications Shen Nan, Huaan Gaoyaoqun, ICBC Credit Suisse He Xiaojie, Anxin Zhang Jing.
Next, I will select 2 representative players to talk about it in detail:
Jianxin Wang Dongjie: from a financial professional, Tsinghua PhD in finance, has a 14-year career experience, and has been an analyst at Gaohua Securities ( Goldman Sachs China ) for four years. He joined CCTV in 2012, from a researcher to a fund manager, and his performance was very excellent.
represents fund Jianxin Da Security (001473) , since taking over management in July 2015 to the end of 2021, with 5 wins and 1 loss, only slightly underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period in 2018.
Wang Dongjie is a fund manager who grew up in a bear market. He encountered Global financial crisis when he entered the industry in 2008. He started to manage funds in 2015 and encountered major stock market fluctuations, so he has always paid more attention to risk control, and the largest drawdown in the past three years is relatively smallest.
His risk control strategy is similar to Xie Zhiyu, mainly because of the industry's dispersion, but he pays more attention to the winning rate and chooses big but undefeated industry leaders, adhering to the concept of " wins and seeks to fight ".
He has maintained a balanced and stable investment return for a long time, and his fund size is smaller (total scale of 4.8 billion). His other Construction Corporate Strategy Selection (005596) , with a scale of 300 million, and he can also invest in Hong Kong stocks, which is also a good choice.
Jinying Yang Xiaobin: is a researcher and analyst, and his years of experience have exceeded 10 years, fund management has been less than 4 years, and his practical years are still short, but his performance is very excellent, and his performance in the past three years is relatively the best.
represents fund Golden Eagle Industry Integration (001366) , from taking over management in February 2019 to the end of 2021, both steadily outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period.
Yang Xiaobin said that his style is most similar to Zhu Shaoxing, and he has a very rigorous investment analysis framework.
But he was the chief macro analyst in the early days, a typical top-down investment. He likes to find industries that will be prosperous in the future and then choose stocks to invest. This is not the same as Lao Zhu's focus on bottom-up.
Because he was the first to be a debt-biased fund manager for fixed income +, he did a good job in risk control, which is a typical industry diversification + shareholding diversification. In terms of the attribute
, I think it can be used to benchmark Xie Zhiyu, with the excess returns relatively stable.
In addition, his new base Golden Eagle Big Vision (013209) has a scale of only 300 million, and it can invest in Hong Kong stocks, which is also a good choice.
In 2022, I am more optimistic about the small and medium cap value style fund managers mainly include the above 11.
are: China-Europe Cao Mingchang/Lan Xiaokang/Yuan Weide, Zhonggeng Qiu Dongrong, Dacheng Xu Yan, Yingda Zhang Yuan, Guotou UBS Qi Fupeng, Guangfa Tang Xiaobin/Lin Yingrui, Zhongtai Jiang Cheng/Tian Yu.
Next, I will select 3 representative players to talk about it in detail:
Let me talk first, these three players are all fund managers in Taurus Twenty’s latest holdings.
Chongqing Cao Mingchang: Chongqing is a master of undervalued value investment in China. He has been focusing on undervalued stocks for more than ten years and has never taken advantage of hot topics. Take one of his representative bases, China Europe Potential Value (001810) as an example. Although his performance in the past few years was average, it was also because of the unpopularity of undervalued style. However, you can see that his performance in 2021 is still very impressive.
We were also selected as Lao Cao before, but because the better target was replaced during the period, he is now included in Taurus Twenty again. First, the value base scale of our previous holdings was relatively large; second, we have a fancy to him that he also has an China-Europe Growth Preferred Return (166020) , which is only 200 million.
In addition, this base is also owned by China Europe. It means that it is optimistic. The disadvantage is that the management fee is a bit high, which costs 2%, but I think new issuance should be able to cover ~
Dacheng Xu Yan: Master's degree, 15 years of industry experience, fund management period, 8 years, window period between 2018 and 2019, and it only started to take over the fund again at the end of 2019.
represents the fund as great competitive advantage (090013) . Judging from the five years of its complete management, it has 4 wins and 1 loss, and only slightly underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the same period in 2020.
Xu Yan has a small and medium-sized market value style. Unlike Cao Mingchang, its main direction is cyclical industries, and prefers industry, energy and materials.
Xu Yan is good at in-depth research on corporate value. He takes judging corporate value as the starting point, studies industry trends, business models and management teams, and explores low-valuation stocks.
His turnover rate is very low. He never pays attention to the short-term market, nor follows the hot spots of the sector. He insists on buying excellent companies at the right price and holding them for a long time.
Xu Yan's management scale is not large, only 3.5 billion, and its risk control ability is also strong, and it maintains a low position for a long time.
Guotou UBS Qi (qi) Fu Peng: Master of Business Administration, has 19 years of experience in fund management, has been an industry researcher, and has worked as a senior securities researcher, assistant fund manager, strategy analyst, etc., with rich experience.
represents fund Guotou UBSR (161222) , since taking over management in July 2016 to the end of 2021, in the complete five years, 4 wins and 1 loss, and only slightly underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period in 2017.
Qi Fupeng's style is a bit like the flavor of Xu Yan and Cao Mingchang. It belongs to the deep value style. The style of holding positions is similar to the CSI dividend, and the valuation is around 20 times.
is characterized by its excellent drawdown control, with the maximum drawdown in two years only 11.1%, while 300 was 20.2% during the same period, which is more prominent than Lao Cao and Xu Yan. Moreover, his performance is much better than Lao Cao and Xu Yan. Qi Fupeng is a player with a long position in Taurus 20th Middle School. His style is stable and his scale has not expanded. He continues to hold it this year.
In 2022, I am more optimistic about the small and medium cap growth style fund managers mainly include the above 8.
are: Huashang Gaobing/Liang Hao, Wanjia Li Wenbin, Ping'an Zhang Xiaoquan/Shenaiqian, Jianxin Shao Zhuo, CITIC Jiantou Luan Jiangwei, Zhongrong Gan Chuanqi.
Next, I will select 3 representative players to talk about it in detail:
Among them, Ping An Zhang Xiaoquan and Jianxin Shao Zhuo are both Twenty players of Taurus, and Ping An Shen Ai Qian is the main force of the former Niujiu.
Ping An Zhang Xiaoquan: is a top student in Tsinghua University, a research director of Ping An, an outstanding analyst of nonferrous chemicals, and has more than six years of experience as a fund manager.
represents the fund Ping An Xinxin Pioneer (000739) . Since taking over management in June 2019 to the end of 2021, it has continued to steadily outperform the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index during the same period.
As the research director, he is good at leveraging the strength of the investment and research team and has outstanding performance. His performance in the past three years has reached 221%+, ranking in the top 50 in the entire market, but the current management scale is only more than 400 million yuan, and the scale does not match its strength. It is currently cost-effective.
Jianxin Shao Zhuo: has seen Shao Zhuo several interviews. He has worked experience in Siemens and IBM. He is a fund manager who has changed his career. He currently has 7 years of fund management and has excellent performance.
represents the fund Jianxin Innovation China (000308) . Since taking over management in 2015 to the end of 2021, in the complete 6 years, 5 wins and 1 loss, only underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period in 2017.
Due to his physical work experience, he has a deeper understanding of technology and high-end manufacturing, but his circle of capabilities is not limited to technology, but has certain industry rotation capabilities in consumption, medicine, finance, etc.
Currently, the country is focusing on supporting small and beautiful and high-end manufacturing. This is its strong point and it is worth considering configuration.
Ping An Shen Ai: Ahem, before love, not love money, have more than five years of fund management experience, thirteen years of investment research experience, and the ultimate growth stock player.
represents the fund as Ping An Strategy Pioneer (700003) . It took over the management in July 2016 to the end of 2021. In the full five years, it had 3 wins and 2 losses, and its performance fluctuated greatly.
Shenaiqian is good at balancing configuration in major industries such as large consumption (including medicine), technology, and high-end manufacturing, and is cost-effective in the circle of capabilities.
As he said himself, "I just want to be a pure investor, not pursue rankings, not seek scale, not pay attention to salary and bonuses. I just hope to continue to focus on the origin of investment, share risks and returns with holders, do not bear trust, and do not bear inner responsibilities and tranquility." What's the shortcomings of
is that although the performance before God loves is relatively high, the volatility and drawdown are relatively large, and the management scale is also expanding faster.
His other Ping An Transformation Innovation (004390) has a scale of less than 2 billion, so you can also consider it for the time being.
In 2022, I am more optimistic about small and medium-sized balanced fund managers mainly include the above 10.
are: Invesco Great Wall Zhang Jing, Nuoan Wang Chuanglian, Guotou UBS Wu Xiao, Dacheng Hanchuang, Bank of Communications Yang Jinjin, Jin Yuanshun An Miao Weibin, China European Wang Jian, Cathay Chengzhou, Xingquan Zou Xin, and GF Cheng Kun.
Next, I will select 3 representative players to talk about it in detail:
Among them, Zhang Jing is the most important player in the first quarter of 2021, Wang Chuanglian and Wu Xiao are the two-tenth players in the first quarter of 2022 Taurus 20 positions.
Invesco Great Wall Zhang Jing: Quantitative/risk/investment/fund/financial engineering/industry and other researchers have a rich research experience, 10 years of fund management, and is a strong veteran driver.
represents fund Invesco Great Wall Strategy Selection (000242) , since taking over management in October 2014 to the end of 2021, in the complete 7 years, 6 wins and 1 loss, and only underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period in 2017, with stable performance.
His characteristics are that he writes his own code and designs quantitative strategies, selects stocks in the entire market, has a high dispersion in the industry, and maintains a stable investment style for a long time.
In addition, he has only managed this fund in the past 8 years. He is very dedicated and has a scale of less than 2 billion. He is a very low-key boss.
Nuoan Wang Chuanglian: Doctor of Economics at Peking University, started investing in research since 1997, and has been in 25 years now. He is an old man in the industry and has been in fund management for nearly 7 years. He has done macroeconomic research in many institutions in the early days. He has joined Nuoan in 2008 and is currently the research director.
represents the fund Nuoan Research Selection (320022). It was managed by him from March 2015 to the end of 2021. In the complete six years, there were 5 wins and 1 loss. It was only underperformed in the same period in 2017, with stable long-term performance.
Wang Chuanglian belongs to a balanced style, is good at grasping the economic cycle and paying attention to the cost-effectiveness of individual stocks.
It has its own investment process, namely: observe the weather → select the soil → sow seeds.
method is to first judge the economic cycle stage, then determine the high prosperity track, and finally select individual stocks.
buy at the right time of valuation and price until the fundamentals change or overvalue.
For example, he held a heavy position in daily consumption at the end of 2020, but in the first half of 2021, he reduced his position significantly and dispersed in industries such as industry, optional consumption, and energy in a timely manner.
The largest drawdown in the past three years is less than 18%, an increase of 199%, and the management scale is 2.9 billion. It is one of the best performers in the balanced style of small and medium-sized stocks.
In addition, his Nuan Anxin (002291) has a scale of only 180 million, with better new issuance and flexibility, and may have higher cost-effectiveness.
Guotou UBS Wu Xiao: Returned Finance Master, has been engaged in nearly 8 years of experience, fund management for 5 years, and has a strong player.
represents the fund Guotou UBS Ruiying (161225) . It took over management in March 2017 to the end of 2021. In the entire four years, it had 3 wins and 1 loss, and only slightly underperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period in 2018.
He also has a balanced style similar to Xie Zhiyu. The core investment idea is to diversify investment, and the eggs are placed in different baskets.
He believes that China has the advantages of the entire industrial chain and there are many sectors that can be invested in. The key is to select good tracks and choose good companies to hold them.
His turnover rate is very low, only 52% in the first half of 2021, and the drawdown is even lower, only 16% in the past three years, but he has achieved a profit of 176% in three years through this risk control.
Currently, the management team owns nearly 5 million yuan. For this fund with more than one billion yuan, it accounts for the top few in the industry~
2. Theme-based active fund evaluation
First of all, we must understand that among the 28 industries in the entire market, there are several industries with the best performance in the long run, namely medical care, consumption, and technology.
These three industries, whether in the United States, Japan, Europe, or China, rank among the top five in the industry in their performance in the past 20 years.
, and some other industries may not always be the best industries, but they also have the value of allocation when there are underestimation opportunities.
For example, industries with relatively strong cyclical nature such as financial real estate, military industry, nonferrous metals, chemical industry, agriculture, etc. need to determine whether to invest at present based on the industry valuation and investment logic. Let’s analyze
one by one.
①Industry investment logic
Consumption industries such as wine, soft drinks, food, retail, daily necessities, catering, textiles and clothing, leisure products, entertainment media, furniture, home appliances, cars, etc. are all considered consumption, and consumption is a big sector.
The investment logic of the consumer industry is very simple. Our life is inseparable from consumer products. You have to eat meat, eat pickled vegetables and snacks, drink milk, put soy sauce and vinegar, watch videos and movies, play games, etc.
From the simplest clothing, food, housing, transportation, to entertainment services, the U.S. stock market segments around consumer goods are mostly bull stock concentration camps.
, and the S&P Discountable Consumer Products Selected Index, which has risen by 339% in the past decade, is the second strongest index after S&P Information Technology.
The consumer industry gathers the most funds in the market, and there are many active funds and they are very complicated. This is why the industry pricing is more effective, and it is difficult for consumer funds to outperform the consumer index. Therefore, if you don’t want to spend time choosing, you can directly choose the CSI Consumer 50 (008975) index fund.
If you have to choose an active fund, you have to choose the best one.
②Screen and comparison of excellent funds in the industry
③Fund manager evaluation and analysis
BOC consumption driver (519714):
BOC Han Weijun is a master of finance at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, a senior analyst in the consumer industry, has studied consumer consumption for 16 years, and has served as a fund manager for 6 years.
His research scope is very wide, including food and beverage, home appliances, retail, medical care, etc. He is one of the few fund managers in China who have thoroughly studied the large consumer field.
His core philosophy is research. He believes that taking investment research from expertise to the extreme is the only shortcut to investment.
In addition, Han Weijun's performance and stock selection ability are also the best among these funds, with the best overall performance.
However, its management scale is also relatively large, close to 20 billion, which may affect the subsequent excess performance of the fund.
Jiashi Consumption Selection (006604):
Wu Yue is a master of applied mathematics major in Fudan. He graduated and joined Jiashi Fund. In more than 8 years, he has been a researcher in the consumer industry and has become the current director of large consumption research.
Wu Yue is a firm believer in consumer investment. His characteristics are that he is good at exploring dark horse stocks through theoretical research + practical research. For example, he often analyzes the trends and evolution of the consumer industry through self-purchase experience and observing the consumption preferences of young groups around him.
His shortcomings are also obvious. The fund management period is still shallow, only 2 and a half years, and he has not actually experienced a major bull and bear market transition.
He is not pessimistic about 2022, believing that the consumer industry will usher in a structural bull market, and some high-quality targets usher in a improvement in fundamentals and performance. Individual stocks with dark horse potential are worth looking forward to.
Dacheng Consumer Theme (090016):
Dacheng Qi Weizhong is a dark horse player of the consumer industry fund in 2021. Unlike traditional consumer fund managers who prefer liquor, Qi Weizhong has been relatively successful in agriculture, medical care, transportation and light industry.
is mainly related to his early research experience in light industry, agriculture and transportation, which also leads to his position being more diversified, with relatively smallest maximum drawdown and better stability.
Qi Weizhong's position is small and medium-sized, and the turnover rate is also high, which shows that he prefers trading. From the perspective of the distribution of the position industry, it mainly rotates in the three industries of daily consumption, optional consumption and medical care.
However, the disadvantage is that the fund management period is short. It has just been 2 years since it was completed, and it still needs market training.
Fuguo Quality Life (006179):
Fuguo Wangyuan is a female star in Fu domestic consumer investment. She first took over in 2017 with Fuguo Consumer Theme (519915). So far, all the performance outperformed the Mainland Consumer All Index and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period. It can be said that she was at her peak when she debuted.
Wang Yuanyuan has been working for 9 years and has nearly 5 years of fund management. Since its internship, it has been working in the field of big consumption. It has good performance, is relatively young and more dynamic.
Wang Yuanyuan's current management scale has reached about 23.4 billion, but the expansion of her fund scale mainly comes from the new fund issued in 2021. The new fund is not recommended to consider it. If you choose, it is recommended to go to Fuguo Quality Life (006179) , and you can invest in Hong Kong stocks.
① Industry Investment Logic
Regarding the logic of investing in financial real estate, we can look at the logic from three aspects:
In terms of configuration selection, the differentiation of individual stocks within the financial theme is also very serious. Some leaders are booming, and some small companies are rolling on the ground. Therefore, the configuration active base is better than the individual configuration index.
For example, in the past three years, the total income index of CSI Financial Real Estate has increased by only 20%, while the active base income of excellent financial real estate is between 50% and 70%. The difference in the long run is quite obvious.
②Screen and comparison of excellent funds in the industry
③Fund manager evaluation and analysis
BOC Financial Real Estate (004871):
Currently, among the financial real estate industry funds in the market, there are very outstanding performance.
Fund manager Liu Teng's outstanding performance is mainly because he has long held a heavy position in the White Horse Bank. China Merchants and Ningbo Bank are the largest constituent stocks in the past three years, which shows that the stock selection ability is acceptable.
However, the recent increase in holdings in broker Dongcai and Real Estate Poly shows that he has also begun to pay attention to the balanced allocation of non-bank finance and real estate.
Fund Manager Liu Teng has a master's degree in finance and has 9 years of experience. In recent years, he has focused on debt-biased mixed funds and also manages this financial fund.
BOC Financial Real Estate has a scale of 450 million yuan, and the scale is also very good. However, the management scale is still more than 10 billion yuan today, and it may be limited in terms of management of many debt funds.
ICBC Credit Suisse Financial Real Estate (000251):
Currently, a very famous financial theme fund in the market has been established in 2013, and is older than the qualifications of other funds. It has always been managed by fund managers Yan Yao and Wang Junzheng, an old CP.
Fund Manager Yan Yao has a master's degree and has served as a senior auditor of an accounting firm, a China International Financial Analyst, etc. He has worked for 10 years and has long-term in-depth research on the banks, securities companies, insurance, real estate and other industries.
Here I will also introduce Wang Junzheng, who started to manage ICBC-RIC Financial Real Estate at the same time and has been working very well so far. Wang also has a master's degree and has 10 years of experience in his career. The performance of ICBC-RIC Financial Real Estate he manages is also a super-basic foundation.
Currently, the scale of ICBC-RIC Credit Suisse has reached 7.2 billion, and 63% of institutions hold it. The market recognition is very high
Although they are very capable and can support this scale, because the scale is too large, the income from new issuance is too diluted. It is recommended that you consider another ICBC-RIC Credit Suisse Selected Financial Real Estate (005937) .
Generally speaking, there are only a few active funds for financial real estate, and both of them can be invested in Hong Kong stocks and can be considered.
①Industry investment logic
The medical sector has been very big in the past six months, and it has been about 45% since its high in July 2021. The medical sector is indeed relatively cheap on the left side. The decline in the previous period is obviously a bit too much. It is still OK to look at this position in length.
But it is hard to say in the short term. The growth sector has to rise sharply to support it. With global tightening expectations, the short term cannot be expected, and performance cannot be achieved overnight. Therefore, it is highly likely that the bottoming will be like the Chinese general public in the future. No one can tell how long the term of
. It may be several months or more.
I think if you build a position, you can start building in batches, collect chips and wait for the next round of market, but pay attention to position control and industry dispersion, and do not buy into a heavy position. (22.2.13)
From a long-term analysis, I think the long-term is an industry with high certainty. Its long-term configuration logic mainly includes three points:
Moreover, the GDP of developed countries in the medical industry is about 13%, and the GDP of developing countries is about 6%, and China currently only accounts for 6.6%, which still has a lot of room for improvement compared with developed countries.
Considering that medicine is a high-quality track worth investing in for a long time, the industry is divided into serious internal parts, and the differences are uneven. It is difficult to select high-quality companies without professional research. Therefore, handing these things to professional fund managers may be the best choice.
②Screen and comparison of excellent funds in the industry
③Fund manager evaluation and analysis
ICBC Credit Suisse Medical Health (006002):
ICBC Tan Donghan is a Ph.D. in clinical medicine, Peking Union Medical College, Tsinghua University, with strong professional strength.
Tan Donghan has been in the industry for more than 10 years, and has been in the fund management for 5 and a half years. He worked as a researcher in the pharmaceutical industry at CITIC in the early days. He joined ICBC Credit Suisse in 2013 and began to manage his first fund in 2016. His partner was Zhao Bei.
Because my career is shorter than Zhao Bei, we can also understand it as Zhao Bei's junior brother~
His medical and health has been 169% since its establishment, while Zhao Bei's cutting-edge medical care was 177% during the same period.
Although the performance is slightly inferior to Zhao Bei, eight of their top ten holdings are just the same.
plus ICBC shared's pharmaceutical investment research team, Tan Donghan is even smaller in scale, and it is expected that he will be quite likely to surpass Zhao Bei in the future.
CICC Medical Reform (002408):
CICC Xie Wei is a doctor of economics. Although his major is not a big deal, he has participated in investment in the primary market of the pharmaceutical industry during his master's and doctoral studies, so he is not a layman.
Xie Wei's investment strategy is ultimate growth investment, with excess returns possible, but his risk control ability is biased, and his fund management years are relatively low, and he has not experienced a large bull and bear market switching, so Xie Wei recommends that you can appropriately diversify your positions.
Jianxin High-end Medical (004683):
Jianxin Pan Longling Early worked as a researcher and drug research and development in pharmaceutical companies, and then joined a fund company to work as an industry researcher.
Pan Longling is a player who prefers trading rotation. Her turnover rate in 2020 is as high as 939%. For example, there was a big change in the fourth quarter of 2021, and 8 new positions were added.
currently has only 600 million management scale, which will not affect her rotation strategy.
However, timing trading did not make her performance outstanding, but the better drawdown control is its advantage.
① Industry investment logic
There are three main investment logic in the technology industry.
However, the technology sector and medical care are both high-valuation sectors, and the uncertainty of technology is higher than that of medical care, especially hardware, with high investment, low output, and greater risks. In contrast, industries that achieve stability and easy profitability are Internet companies listed on the Hong Kong stock market represented by Tencent, Alibaba, and Meituan.
②Screen and comparison of excellent funds in the industry
③Fund manager evaluation and analysis
Golden Eagle Information Industry (003853):
Golden Eagle Fan Yong is a master of Southwest Finance and Economics Engineering. He entered the industry in 2013 and was a researcher in electronics, communications, new energy and other industries. He has worked in the industry for nearly 9 years, has 3 years of fund management, outstanding performance, and is a dark horse player in the technology industry.
Fan Yong is a comprehensive fund manager of pan-technology. He has maintained a long-term detailed research on electronic information-related industries, including computers, electronics, chips, 5G, new energy, the Internet, smart cars, etc.
His characteristic is that he is good at exploring bull stocks in various sub-sectors in the circle of capabilities, and his holdings are relatively scattered. The disadvantage of
is that it only started to take over funds in the second half of 2018. It is in a bull market in technology, and its management years are still short, so it has not experienced a big bull-bear transition.
Bank of China Intelligent Manufacturing (001476):
Bank of China Wang Wei is a top student in engineering at Shanghai Jiaotong University, specializing in investment in high-end manufacturing industry, a hunter for small and medium-sized growth stocks, and a veteran of fund management for 7 years.
is different from Fan Yong. Wang Wei's early research directions were machinery, automobiles and military industries, so his current focus is on hard technology equipment manufacturing in industries such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, photovoltaics, and new energy.
Wang Wei's turnover rate is very low, which belongs to the long-term value holding concept, and has outstanding stock selection ability, which shows that he has a very in-depth research on related targets. His latest holdings mainly include high-end home appliances, lithium batteries, fruit chains, photovoltaic/wind power equipment, smart packaging, photovoltaic glass, semiconductor power devices, etc.
Of course, its technological attributes are not on electronics or chips. If you are interested in the field of high-end manufacturing, you can consider Wang Wei.
Rongtong New Energy Vehicle (005668):
Rongtong Wangdi is a master of metrology and finance. Her early research experience is similar to that of Wang Wei, and her main direction is in the machinery, electricity, equipment, military industry and other industries.
However, after he became a fund manager, he focused on the direction of energy vehicles, mainly automotive vehicle and component companies, and auxiliary distribution of related targets in the photovoltaic, wind power, aerospace and other industries.
Wang Di has a low risk preference, focuses on valuation and configuration balance, and drawdown control is the best among these.
In addition, he only managed this fund in his career, and was very dedicated, and also achieved the performance title of "2 times in 2 years + 3 times in 3 years + 5-star Grand Slam".
Wang Di is a rising rookie in the field of new energy vehicles. If you are optimistic about this, you can consider it, but it will inevitably face the disadvantages of expanding scale in the future, which will be tested by time.
Baoying Artificial Intelligence (005962):
Baoying Zhang Zhongwei 's capability circle covers the Internet of Hong Kong stocks, and the excess returns in technology are also very obvious.
Zhang Zhongwei used to be a trust fund manager in Taiwan and had a certain global investment vision. Later, after doing many years of research, he first worked as a fund manager at China Resources Yuanda Fund, and then went to Baoying Fund.
His strong direction is mainly technology, including media, the Internet, high-end manufacturing, hard technology, etc.
He has a strong sense of smell of rotation in the pan-tech sector. For example, after the first quarter report of 2021, he reduced his holdings in Meituan and Tencent, adjusted his positions in Hard Technology. With many Chinese stocks listed in the year at the beginning of the year, the fund yield in 2021 still reached more than 20%.
Now Chinese stocks are in a value depression, and Zhang Zhongwei may have more ability to seize the opportunity to buy. His other fund Baoying Development New Momentum (010128) has a scale of only 410 million, which may be more flexible.
① Industry Investment Logic
Strong country must strengthen the army. Although military industry is not as popular as consumption, it is closely linked to national development and is also a long-term upward industry.
Especially in the current Ukraine-Russia conflict, the global demand for military equipment is likely to increase steadily under the background of uncertainty.
However, the military industry has a characteristic, it is easy to be hyped by hot concepts and is prone to soaring. For example, in 2012-15, our new class master first took office, and driven by the concept of a strong military country, the CSI Military Industry Index once rose nearly 5 times.
But because of its lack of fundamental support, with the arrival of the bear market, it fell miserably, almost no more than the knees were cut.
Due to the large fluctuations in the military industry, it is necessary to keep up with policy changes, and the investment is still very difficult.
Also, it is necessary to remind you that there are still many problems in this industry. It has long been poor profitability and is very dependent on orders placed by government customers. It has almost no pricing power, resulting in a low profit margin. The long-term gross sales profit margin of this industry is only about 15%, and the net profit margin is less than 5%.
So I do not recommend retail investors to invest in the military industry sector. If you must invest, try to choose the active fund of the military industry industry.
Active Fund has an over-return income. Military Industry Index Fund has increased by 81% in the past three years, but most high-quality active funds are above 130%, so this is also an industry that needs to be handed over to fund managers to invest.
Changxin National Defense and Military Industry (002983):
This fund was taken over by Song Hai'an in 2018. It is a military industry theme fund with very significant excess returns in the past two years.
Changxin Song Hai'an is a master of applied mathematics, a quantitative researcher, and is good at strategic trading. The Changxin Fund quantitative team he is in is also one of the very outstanding teams in domestic public offerings for medium and low frequency quantitative investment.
His characteristic is that he is good at obtaining excess returns from fundamentals + technical aspects, that is, through industry investment research + quantitative model trading.
He believes that military industry naturally has the characteristics of high fluctuations, poor fundamental transparency, and cannot see too far, which is very suitable for technical quantitative trading models.
As a representative of the new forces rising by domestic public quantitative funds, it is also a good choice.
Boshi Military Industry Theme (004698):
This base was established in 2017. Since the fluctuations of the military industry themselves are very unstable, there is no way to perform well and badly, but the doubled performance in 20 years also shows the fund's ability to select stocks.
Fund manager Rancho has a master's degree from Tsinghua University. He has been working for more than 10 years and has 6 years of fund management experience. Since its establishment, Boshi Military Industry's foundation is fully controlled by him. His direction is also inclined toward manufacturing, which is relatively appropriate.
Boshi Military Industry is currently 5.5 billion, which is the largest one he manages. However, from his main focus, he is better at industrial manufacturing, which leads to some distraction and indecentness. This needs to be paid attention to.
① Industry investment logic
Nonferrous industry, as the name implies, is a mineral industry with color, such as copper, gold, silver, aluminum, lithium, iron/nickel and other minerals, and also coal and other resources. The cyclical nature of industries like
is very obvious, and is greatly affected by the supply and demand relationship of raw materials. For example, in the past two years, my country's copper reserves have continued to decline, once down 80% from the year's high. In addition, the epidemic abroad is severe, imports are blocked, and supply shortages have led to a sharp rise in domestic copper prices, which has also led to the entire nonferrous metal sector.
In addition, the improvement of the new energy industry has also expanded demand. Many unicorn companies have announced the construction of cars, and the demand for iron/nickel, lithium and copper has increased significantly, which is also an important reason for the rise of nonferrous metals.
However, the nonferrous metals industry is a strong cyclical industry. Under the influence of economic recovery and global flooding, it has enjoyed pro-cyclical dividends. However, if the flooding stops or the pace of economic recovery slows down, it will be affected first.
Therefore, choosing the active base of this sector not only tests the ability of fund managers, but also requires strong timing and stock selection capabilities.
I strongly do not recommend choosing index funds in this sector because the constituent stocks in index funds are too diversified, and it is easier to obtain excess returns when choosing active funds.
② Industry excellent fund screening
③ Fund manager evaluation and analysis
Huabao Resources Preferred (240022):
Huabao Resources Preferred (240022):
html established in 112. Huabao's old cyclical industry fund has long-term heavy holdings in nonferrous metals, mining, chemicals and other industries, and can steadily outperform the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index and CSI Mainland Resources Full Revenue Index in the long term.
Another Huabao value managed by Cai Murong has discovered that we have mentioned him, but he has also been engaged in resource cyclical industry research for many years. He can be said to be the "living fossil" of the cyclical industry. The first fund he managed is Huabao Resource Selection, which has also become his representative base. The fund holdings in nonferrous metals, mining and other industries are of high purity.
However, Huabao Resources Preferred's performance fluctuates greatly. The key is to enter the market in real time, which is very difficult.
①Industry Investment Logic
Chemical industry belongs to a strong cycle industry, also known as the chemical processing industry, mainly producing raw materials for industrial products, such as plastics, synthetic rubber, dyes, acid and alkali, polymer new materials, etc., which are widely used in furniture, clothing, construction, automobiles, electronic devices, etc.
is similar to nonferrous metals. Due to the changes in supply and demand of raw materials, it has a great impact on product prices. For example, due to the impact of the epidemic in 2020, MDI (an important chemical raw material) was in short supply, so the price exceeded 40% throughout the year. Industry leaders like Wanhua Chemical benefited a lot.
In addition, the country has strict reviews of chemical companies, which also makes the industry moat higher and leading companies more popular.
However, the industry itself is also very cyclical and requires in-depth research on the industry cycle. Be careful when novices enter, you can wait until the industry has a historical underestimation opportunity before intervening.
② Industry excellent fund screening
③ Fund manager evaluation and analysis
E Fund Supply Reform (002910):
was established in 2017, with a short period of time. The early holdings in nonferrous metals, steel, mining and other cyclical industries were relatively scattered. After Yang Zongchang took over in 2019, all turned to the energy + materials and other chemical industries, currently accounting for more than 85%, which is a purebred chemical foundation.
From 2019 to the present, it has steadily outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the CSI Chemical Raw Materials Full Return Index.
Yang Zongchang is a doctor of chemistry. Although he has been managing the fund for less than 3 years, he has been a researcher in the chemical industry at E Fund for nearly 8 years and has been very researching in the chemical industry. Therefore, he is now specializing in chemical industry, just like Manager Tsai’s Nuoan Growth specializing in chips.
However, the difference is that Manager Cai’s fund cannot beat the chip index, but Yang Zongchang can significantly defeat the chemical index of the same period, and his performance in the past three years is very excellent.
, the current scale is 3.8 billion, not high and worth considering, but a heavy holding in chemical cyclical industries also tests the timing ability of our investors.
①Industry investment logic
Food is the most important thing for people, and everyone should eat. Agriculture is the foundation of the country and an industry that the country attaches more importance to.
Agriculture can be simply divided into planting and breeding industries, among which the breeding industry accounts for a large proportion. Among listed companies, such as Muyuan, Haida, Zhengbang, New Hope, etc., are basically engaged in breeding.
There are two main factors affecting agriculture. One is natural disasters, such as drought and flood disasters, locust infestation, African swine fever, etc., which lead to a shortage of products, and the price increases accordingly. You can refer to the wave of pork in 2019; the other is that inflation increases, prices rise, and the industry benefits.
Now the pork price has basically begun to stabilize at the bottom, and the performance of the agricultural sector is also relatively stable. However, there are fewer active funds for the agricultural sector in the market, and fewer industries with higher purity. I will list one relatively excellent one.
② Industry excellent fund screening
Caotai Agricultural (001579):
The fund with the best stability in the agricultural sector has been well controlled in the stock market crash in 2018, and since its establishment, its performance has steadily outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 and CSI Agricultural Index.
Chengzhou Master's degree, CFA, is a veteran with 21 years of experience in fund management and nearly 14 years. The representative base is Cathay Juxin's value advantage, and this agricultural base has been managed by him to this day. The main style feature of
is stability and is very good at controlling drawdowns. However, the number of funds he currently manages has reached 9, with a total scale of 16.8 billion, which is not very good and may not concentrate enough.
Caretai Agriculture is currently 1.2 billion, which is quite suitable. He mainly focuses on his rich investment and research experience.
So that’s all we have to talk about in the above major industries.
Next, let’s talk about overseas funds.
stake related. I currently hold a relatively large number of QDII funds. I will put QDII funds and Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen funds together in this area.
(1) QDII fund
QDII fund, simply put, is a fund established in China and can invest in foreign securities markets, such as Hong Kong stocks, rice stocks, European stocks, etc. Due to the trading time difference in various places, the QDII fund trading cycle is also relatively long, which is more suitable for long-term investment and is not suitable for short-term operations.
①Investment logic
Let’s talk about the big background first. In fact, Hong Kong stocks have been hovering at the bottom for three years. From 2019 to 21, the major markets around the world have increased significantly, but Hong Kong stocks are terrible.
Hong Kong stocks are mainly international funds, with higher institutionalization and more rational pricing than A-shares. Now the valuation of A-shares is still higher than that of Hong Kong stocks.
, especially major unicorn companies, are listed on the Hong Kong stock market, such as Tencent, Alibaba, Meituan, Nongfu Spring, etc., and some companies are gradually returning to Hong Kong stock market listing, such as JD.com, NetEase, Kuaishou, etc., and in the future, there will be Pinduoduo, Douyin, etc.
After experiencing the cliff-like decline in 2021, the allocation of these core assets has become very cost-effective. There are still many investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market in the future.
Similarly, for US stocks, such as Zhihu, Beike, Good Future, Bilibili, etc., they are also very good emerging industry companies.
In addition, the leading stocks in the United States, FB, Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Apple, etc., are all very good high-quality targets.
So the funds in Hong Kong and US stock allocation direction are still worth paying attention to. Next, I will focus on the aspect of active funds:
②Screen and comparison of excellent funds in the industry
Currently, the QDII fund layout in the world:
00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 ③ Fund manager evaluation and analysis
Guofu Great China Selection (000934):
Guohai Franklin's global investment star base was established in 2015 and mainly invested in high-quality Chinese companies listed abroad, such as Tencent, Datang New Energy, China Resources Electricity, Kingdee International, BYD, etc., and their positions are basically concentrated in Hong Kong stocks, which tend to be the growth style of the market.
Fund has been able to defeat the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index every year since its establishment.
Guofu Xu Cheng is a master of financial decision-making analysis in Butzmouth, UK. He has worked for 15 years and is currently the investment director of Guofu QDII. His investment characteristics are wide coverage and high flexibility. He will not only buy companies of a certain style.
There are two hard indicators for choosing high-quality companies: they must have core competitiveness and excellent management, and they mainly obtain excess returns through industry allocation and individual stock selection.
Huitanfu Global Mobile Internet (001668):
was established in 2017, and basically all invested in Hong Kong and US stock mobile Internet companies. Their performance can be compared with the Nasdaq 100 and the China Internet Index during the same period, but they have significantly outperformed these two indexes since their establishment.
Summary: This is a bit of the flavor of the active enhanced version of China Internet + Nasdaq 100~
Huitianfu Yang Rong is a master of engineering in Tsinghua University and a Huitianfu TMT analyst. I am optimistic about him because he is a long-term value investment style, firmly holds a good company with a good track, earns corporate profits, has strong stock selection ability, and has strict risk drawdown control, which basically depends on my appetite.
However, Yang Ying also has some flaws, is still young, has not experienced a complete bull and bear conversion, and his investment scope is wide, involving many countries around the world, and may be lacking in research; in addition, this base fee is relatively high (management fee 1.8%, custody fee 0.35%).
, but comprehensive evaluation is still the best choice, I feel more at ease when choosing him for QDII fund.
(2) Domestic Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund
① Investment logic
Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Fund, simply put, investing in funds with unrestricted Hong Kong stocks (up to 95%), but the premise is to select stocks within the scope of the Hong Kong Stock Connect.
If QDII funds can completely invest in overseas companies, this type of fund can choose whether to invest in Hong Kong stocks and how much proportion is.
Generally, this type of fund is characterized by its stability and volatility much smaller than domestic funds. If you are timid, it is recommended to try to find gold from Shanghai, Hong Kong and Shenzhen funds first.
②Search and comparison of excellent funds in the industry
After multiple rounds of screening, two fund managers were mainly selected:
③Fund manager evaluation and analysis html l5
BOC Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Value Selection (519779):
BOC Chen Junhua is a master of finance at Shanghai Jiaotong University, an industry researcher. He has provided research services to foreign institutional investors in China International Finance Corporation and has also obtained the 2006 New Fortune. "Best Analyst" No. 1 name in the power industry.
has been engaged in the industry for nearly 17 years and is mainly investing in Hong Kong stocks. It is considered the overseas leader series of Bank of Communications.
Chen Junhua is a balanced style, and he has a relatively accurate grasp of the matching of growth and valuation, and has a very good drawdown control.
For example, the food and beverages that were super-equipped in 2020, but in the first half of 2021, it changed to the electronics and automotive industries in a timely manner.
She is also one of the few fund managers among Hong Kong stock funds that have achieved positive returns of 5%+ in 2021.
But the disadvantage is that the performance of other funds she manages is biased, and many new funds were issued while it was popular at the beginning of 2021.
Hua'an Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Stock Connect Selection (001581):
Hua'an High Key Group, represents the fund Hua'an Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Stock Connect Selection (001581) , since taking over management in April 2017 to the end of 2021, it has steadily outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index during the same period.
High key group is a researcher, has many years of industry research and global investment research experience, and is relatively accurate in grasping industry trends.
and have strong industry rotation capabilities, such as in mid-2020, super-equipped materials and healthcare, and super-equipped industry and information technology in 21 years.
She can also follow the policy orientation and make timely adjustments.
The disadvantage is that her fund management period is slightly insufficient and she has not experienced the bull and bear market switching.
3. Bond active fund evaluation
Bond funds are generally divided into pure bond funds and mixed first- and second-tier bond funds, among which pure bond funds are also divided into short-, medium- and long-term pure bond funds.
Short, medium and long-term pure bond fund: As the name suggests, it is this bond fund. Except for the allocation of current cash, the assets invested in are short-term or medium- and long-term bonds. This type of risk is the smallest, and of course the return is not high, with an annualized rate of about 5%.
Mixed first- and second-tier bond funds: Previously, first-tier bond funds could invest in new shares, but now it is no different from pure bond funds after being stopped. Bond funds that can directly invest in the stock market are called mixed second-tier bond funds.
Pure bond funds are greatly affected by market interest rates . The continuation of the bond bull market mainly depends on the downward expectations of market interest rates, while the bear market is the opposite, and depends on the expectations of rising market interest rates.
For example, in 2013, it was a bond bear market, with interest rates rising, and it would be great if the bond funds could maintain a good loss. At that time, the yields of bank wealth management increased to 5%, and the three-year fixed deposit interest rate was also very high, resulting in no one paying attention to bonds with similar interest rates, and falling prices led to losses.
Therefore, the net value trend of bond funds over the years is negatively correlated with changes in market interest rates.
For example, the treasury bond interest rates continued to decline in ten years of 2014 and 2015, bonds ushered in a bull market. Starting from 2016 and 2017, the treasury bond interest rates bottomed out and rebounded, and bonds entered a bear market.
Therefore, there are also some risks in investing in pure bond funds. For example, under the current background of interest rate hikes in the Federal Reserve, the U.S. Treasury bond interest rates have an upward risk. If our risk-free interest rates also increase, then bond funds may also have poor returns in stages.
But as a low-risk product, bond funds can still be allocated from a medium- and long-term perspective. After all, the current global economy is recovering, and the situation of double-debt killing of stocks and bonds is likely to not happen.
②Screen and comparison of excellent funds in the industry
Among them, the first two are pure bond funds, and the third is mixed secondary bond funds.
Penghua Fengrong (000345):
Penghua Liu Tao is the performance king of pure bond funds. Penghua Fengrong's annualized annualization in 5 years is 7.8%, the first in the entire market. It is a bit outrageous to achieve this performance without stocks.
However, Penghua Fengrong is open for subscription once a year, and is still closed. The opening day is around November 19th of each year.
Generally, the performance of closed bond funds is generally better, because the position is higher, so the performance of bond funds is generally better than that of opening funds.
If he does not postpone the block, he also has a Penghua Puli (009483), which is also open for subscription. You can consider ~
Industry regular opening (000546):
Industry Zhou Ming is a top student in Tsinghua. He has been engaged in finance for nearly 21 years and has been a strong female player who focuses on fixed income + field. He is currently the director of the fixed income investment department of Industrial Technology, and has a stronger team advantage.
However, this fund is open regularly and open once a year, with poor flexibility. You can consider her other Industrial Industry Income Enhancement (001257) , a mixed secondary bond fund, and its performance is also excellent.
Caitong Asset Management Positive Returns (002901):
Gong Zhifang is a master of mathematics and finance, a foreign exchange and bond trader, and pays special attention to absolute returns.
She also won many awards during her tenure, especially in 2018, she won the one-year open-end bond fund bull award in a generally weak market.
Gong Zhifang's fund is very stable. It is the only player in the past five years (2017.1-2022.2) to achieve positive results for 21 consecutive quarters with mixed secondary bond funds.
5. Outlook for 2022
Under the background of global liquidity tightening, it is difficult to expect a large-scale bull market in 2022~
The market will be more inverted.
The biggest feature of the inner volume is that the index fluctuates and does not rise, the internal sectors are differentiated significantly, and the money-making effect is average.
If you still just buy the products recommended on Taobao on the homepage, you may not be able to get better returns.
From a trend perspective, I estimate that funds with value styles will continue to be relatively strong in 2022 compared to their growth styles. In terms of
configuration, I recommend actively balancing funds, especially for general theme funds, multiple style sectors hold balancedly, and appropriately focus on value.
In addition, some bond funds can be appropriately allocated. If the market falls out of the gold pit, you can sell the bond funds and increase your positions.
If the assets are relatively large, in addition to stocks and bonds, some expansion considerations can be made in gold ETFs and domestic reits. Due to space limitations, I won’t go into it for now.
is good. Friends who can keep reading this without saying a word. I can only say that you are really awesome. You have read more than 20,000 words. I think the content is helpful. Remember to like, collect, follow and forward~
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