The top global champion due to the increase in Vietnam's stock market, the Tianhong Vietnam Fund, which had plunged in the early stage, changed its shadow and almost recovered all lost land.
Due to the surge in exports to China, the United States and Japan in the first four months of this year, and the free trade agreement with the EU will be reviewed in May this year, the Vietnamese stock market, which is already cheap, rebounded strongly. The Vietnam VN30 index has risen by about 30% since April. During the same period, China's Shanghai Composite Index, the US S&P Index, and the Japan Nikkei Index were 2.3%, 14%, and 8%, respectively. Vietnam's stock index also surpassed the performance of major indexes in emerging markets. Indonesia's Jakarta and India's Mumbai 30 Index were 16% respectively during the same period. 17%.
Due to the large amount of funds at the bottom, Tianhong Vietnam Fund has announced restrictions on the subscription of large amounts of funds. Hu Chao, manager of Tianhong Fund, believes that the current valuation of Vietnam VN30 index is about 10.6 times, which is still below 1 times the standard deviation of the average of the past five years, and the subsequent elasticity is still relatively large. Analysts at Victory Capital believe that recent market fluctuations have not changed the opportunity for emerging markets. Although sometimes emerging markets can fall by more than 20%, investors who dare to buy at the bottom of emerging markets will have an average annual return of more than 42%.
recovered lost ground, and Tianhong Vietnam Fund became a favorite in seconds
QDII Fund has always been characterized by the fact that it is difficult to go back if it falls, but there is an exception to one fund. Tianhong Vietnam Fund, whose net value plummeted at the beginning of this year, became the market's darling overnight.
Brokerage China reporter found that as of the latest fund net value data disclosed on May 21, the net value of Tianhong Vietnam Stock Fund was 0.9743 yuan, and on March 30 this year, the net value of Tianhong Vietnam Fund had even dropped to 0.7474 yuan. In other words, in just two months, the net value of Tianhong Vietnam Fund soared by more than 30%.
As the first and only Vietnamese market QDII fund in the public offering market, Tianhong Vietnam Fund was established on January 21, 2020. During the position building period, it happened to encounter the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. Affected by panic factors, the Vietnamese stock market fell sharply, and due to the influence of panic factors, the Vietnamese stock market fell sharply. The net value of Tianhong Vietnam Fund once fell to 0.747 yuan.
However, the panic drop in the Vietnamese market actually turned into an excellent opportunity to buy at the bottom, especially in the end of April and early May this year, a series of amazing news about Vietnam's reforms fermented on Chinese social media, stimulating Chinese capital versus Vietnamese market judgment.
Even private equity fund managers have paid attention to Tianhong Vietnam Fund. A private equity fund manager in South China told a reporter from Securities China that he paid attention to various news about Vietnam's reform in early May this year, and therefore paid attention to Tianhong Vietnam Fund.
seconds to defeat Indonesia and India, and Vietnam's stock market gains topped the global championship?
In fact, from early April this year to early May this year, Vietnam formed a double-click effect of various positive news in a month, making Vietnam's stock market the champion of emerging markets in the second quarter, in the global market, There were almost no stock market performance in the quarter that surpassed Vietnamese stock market.
data shows that since April this year, as of May 22, the Shanghai Composite Index of China's A-shares has risen by 2.3%, the S&P 500 index of the United States has risen by 14%, and the Nikkei 225 index of Japan has risen by about 8%, and the Nikkei 225 index of Japan has risen by about 8%, and In comparison, the Vietnam VN30 index has risen by about 30%.
Even Indonesia and India that are highly optimistic in emerging markets have been instantly sold by Vietnamese stock markets. A reporter from Securities China found that the Indonesian Jakarta Index rose by 16% during the same period, while the India Mumbai 30 Index rose by 17% during the same period, which was only about half of the Vietnamese stock market.
Market insiders believe that the core reason why Vietnam's stock market is stronger than other emerging market economies such as India and Indonesia is not only the cheap labor force and geographical location close to major trading countries such as China, Japan and South Korea, Vietnam's performance during the epidemic is also the same. It's better than India and other countries.
Take India as an example. Data from the World Health Organization on May 20 showed that the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus pneumonia in India has exceeded 100,000, with a total of 3,163 deaths. , especially the trading center of Indian stock market, Mumbai.As the new coronavirus rages in India, Mumbai has suffered the greatest negative impact. Market participants predict that Mumbai, an Indian financial center with a population of 20 million, is likely to become the most severe city in India, which will affect the performance of the Indian market.
has a lot of funds to buy at the bottom, and Tianhong Vietnam Fund restricts subscription to
The strong pattern of the Vietnamese stock market has changed the reputation of Tianhong Vietnam Fund and has benefited a lot from the fund.
From Tiantian Fund website, Tianhong Vietnam Fund, which was originally criticized by various types of people, has begun to regret buying at the bottom because of the strong bullish trend of fund net value. Some fund holders also said that they were trapped in the early stage of losses. When I increased my position and bought at the bottom, the Tianhong Vietnam Fund I held had turned red.
may be because of the too much funds for buying the Tianhong Vietnam Fund and the foreign exchange quota is tight. Tianhong Vietnam Fund has begun to restrict large amounts of funds to apply for Tianhong Vietnam Fund.
htmlOn May 15, Tianhong Vietnam Fund issued an announcement stating that it fully considers the restrictions on foreign exchange quota and in order to better meet investors' investment needs, the company decided to suspend single transactions of this fund in the online direct sales trading system from May 18, 2020 Subscription (including regular fixed investment, the same below) business application for an amount of more than 1,000 yuan (excluding 1,000 yuan), and the cumulative subscription amount of a single fund account shall not exceed 1,000 yuan (excluding 1,000 yuan), if the cumulative subscription amount of a single day If more than 1,000 yuan, the company has the right to refuse in part or in full.Tianhong Vietnam Fund Manager Hu Chao analyzed that this round of rebound in Vietnam's VN30 Index indicates that the Vietnamese stock market has entered a technical bull market, and the sharp rebound in the short term market has driven a rebound in valuation. Currently, the valuation of the VN30 Index (LTM P/E) is about 10.6 The number of times is still below 1 times the standard deviation of the average of the past five years; in addition, overseas funds are in net inflows into the Vietnamese market since May, and confidence in overseas capital is recovering.
"The current valuation level of Vietnam's VN30 index is still at a low level." Hu Chao believes that the unique advantages of Vietnam's economy lie in its low-cost advantages in production factors, the rapidly growing middle class, population structure and an inertial open policy; even if Under the influence of the current epidemic, Vietnam's economy still maintains a relatively fast growth rate and has a high subsequent elasticity.
Exports to China, the United States and Japan surged, and the EU triggered the next round of market?
Why does Tianhong Vietnamese fund manager Hu Chao think that the subsequent elasticity of the Vietnamese stock market and Vietnamese economy is relatively high?
There is a view that when the market is booming, it is difficult to see who is more resilient, because everyone is good, and when the market is bleak, the targets of potential investment can stand out. According to a series of recent data, the outbreak of the epidemic has prompted funds to pay more attention to the Vietnamese stock market and economy, and has also made the Vietnamese stock market a value depression for bottom-line buying in the second quarter of this year.
While the export share of major economies in the world has shrunk, Vietnam's exports continue to soar, and show the characteristics of being able to do everything.
Data from the Vietnam Bureau of Statistics shows that judging from the performance in the first four months of this year, the total export volume of Vietnam's commodity reached US$82.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
In the first four months of this year, the United States was Vietnam's largest export market, with exports to the market reaching US$20.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.4%. The second is the Chinese market, with exports reaching US$13.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.7%. In addition, Vietnam's exports to Japan reached US$6.7 billion in the first four months, an increase of 10.1% year-on-year.
While the export volume of Vietnamese goods to China, the United States and Japan has increased significantly, it will also review and pass a free trade agreement with the EU market within this month to stimulate the EU market with a population of 500 million. exit.
market participants predict that the EU market will be the next accelerator for Vietnam's economy and Vietnamese stock market. According to the Nikkei News, the free trade agreement signed by Vietnam and the EU will officially come into effect in the past two months. This means that by August this year, Vietnam will become the second Southeast Asian country to sign a free trade agreement with the EU after Singapore.
According to the agreement between Vietnam and the EU, after the bilateral free trade agreement comes into effect, Vietnam's 71% tariff on EU exported goods and the 65% tariff on EU exported goods will be immediately cancelled. In addition, Vietnam will take 10 years and the EU will take 7 years to cancel 99% of the tariffs in stages.
In other words, in addition to the relatively cheap valuation of Vietnam's stock market and has strong attractiveness, Vietnam's surge in exports to China, the United States and Japan, as well as the current free trade agreement with the EU, have become a stimulus for Vietnam's stock market to rise sharply, the surge in Vietnam's stock market the main driving factor.
At the same time, Vietnam, as a typical representative in emerging markets, is also considered the main target of global capital inflows.
Victory Capital related persons believe that as long-term emerging market investors, recent volatility has not changed our argument: anyone who wants to add diversification potential and differentiated flow of returns to their portfolios may want to consider in the emerging market The market makes long-term investments. According to the Securities Times report, the report of the CICC outpost research team shows that in terms of the number of investment projects, the number of investment projects rose to 615 in the first 11 months of 2019, an increase of 83.6% year-on-year; the scale of the FDI agreement funds from mainland China in Vietnam reached 22.8 USD 100 million, a significant increase of 155.5% year-on-year. Data from Copley Fund Research also shows that in the fourth quarter of last year alone, 19.7% of emerging market stock funds held Vietnamese stocks, three times the level in early 2014.
Victory Capital analyst Steve Musser also recently said that recent market volatility has not changed the long-term investment opportunities in emerging markets. Although bear market adjustments are not uncommon in emerging market stocks, sometimes the decline in emerging market stock indexes can exceed 20% , but for investors who dare to buy after a bear market, their average annual return after buying emerging markets under panic will exceed 42%.
At least judging from the recent trend of Tianhong Vietnam Fund, investment opportunities in emerging markets obviously have greater investment opportunities due to fear.
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